CoChat
Sign Up
Cited by 690Political Conflict and GovernancePeacebuilding and International SecurityNatural Resources and Economic Development

Does Conflict Beget Conflict? Explaining Recurring Civil War

Walter, Barbara F·2004·Journal of Peace Research
DOI 10.1177/0022343304043775
Open this paper in CoChat — free account

Abstract

This article attempts to explain why some countries experience civil wars while others do not. It argues that renewed war is likely to have less to do with the attributes of a previous war, as many people have argued, than with current incentives individual citizens have to rejoin a rebel group. Civil wars will have little chance to get off the ground unless individual farmers, shopkeepers, and potential workers choose to enlist in the rebel armies that are necessary to pursue a war, and enlistment is only likely to be attractive when two conditions hold. The first is a situation of individual hardship or severe dissatisfaction with one’s current situation. The second is the absence of any nonviolent means for change. An analysis of all civil wars ending between 1945 and 1996 suggests that a higher quality of life and greater access to political participation have a significant negative effect on the likelihood of renewed war. Countries that provide higher levels of economic well-being to their citizenry and create an open political system are less likely to experience multiple civil wars regardless of what happened in a previous conflict.

Integrity signals

Registry

Crossref · 10.1177/0022343304043775

Cites

64 of 64 references verified0 citation errors · 0 not checkable

Statistics

Recomputing p-values needs the paper’s full text.

Claims the paper makes

We couldn’t retrieve this paper’s full text, so its claims and self-check weren’t run. The registry and citation checks still apply.

Claims other papers make about this one

Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?

  • Actors with incentives to initiate violence find conditions more conducive to radicalization and mobilization in poor, post-conflict societies.

    “actors who have incentives to initiate violence will find the conditions more conducive to radicalization and mobilization in poor, post-conflict societies (22,185).”

    From Vicious Circles: Violence, Vulnerability, and Climate Change (2021) · cites this paper as [185]

  • Grievances provide rebel leaders with an opportunity to mobilize potential soldiers and supporters who are dissatisfied with the government.

    “Grievances are important because they provide rebel leaders with an opportunity to mobilize potential soldiers and supporters who are dissatisfied with the government (Walter 2004, 374-75).”

    From Conflict Recurrence and Postconflict Justice: Addressing Motivations and Opportunities for Sustainable Peace (2017) · cites this paper as Walter 2004

  • Recruitment and civilian support are essential for the opposition to resume violence against the government as it bolsters their fighting capabilities.

    “Recruitment and civilian support, in turn, are essential for the opposition to resume violence against the government as it bolsters their fighting capabilities.”

    From Conflict Recurrence and Postconflict Justice: Addressing Motivations and Opportunities for Sustainable Peace (2017) · cites this paper as Walter 2004

Cites

Flagged first, then by citations

1 of the 65 references couldn’t be matched to a known paper.

Cited by

Sorted by citations

Related

Authors
Walter, B. F.
Affiliations
University of California San Diego (US)
Corresponding author
Walter, Barbara F
ORCID
Walter, Barbara F
Venue
Journal of Peace Research
Publisher
Oxford University Press (OUP)
Published
2004-05-01
Volume
41
Issue
3
Pages
371-388
ISSN
  • 0022-3433 (ISSN-L)
  • 1460-3578
DOI
10.1177/0022343304043775
OpenAlex
W2115057879
Cited by
690
References
65
Citations by year
2026: 30 · 2025: 19 · 2024: 37 · 2023: 52 · 2022: 48 · 2021: 53 · 2020: 41 · 2019: 43 · 2018: 48 · 2017: 33 · 2016: 29 · 2015: 28 · 2014: 31 · 2013: 36 · 2012: 35
FWCI
31.68
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
closed
Licence
academic.oup.com/pages/standard-publication-reuse-rights (vor)
Locations
  • Journal of Peace Research (publishedVersion)
  • RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
Topics
  • Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Political Conflict and Governance
  • Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Peacebuilding and International Security
  • Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › General Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Natural Resources and Economic Development
Keywords
civil war recurrence, economic well-being, political participation, quality of life, civil war onset

About these checks

Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.

Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.

Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.

What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›

Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review