Cited by 426Environmental and Social Impact AssessmentsProbabilistic and Robust Engineering DesignRisk and Safety Analysis

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Combining Quantitative and Qualitative Measures of Uncertainty in Model‐Based Environmental Assessment: The NUSAP System

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Van Der Sluijs, Jeroen P., Craye, Matthieu, Funtowicz, Silvio, Kloprogge, Penny, Ravetz, Jerry, Risbey, James·2005·Risk Analysis

DOI 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2005.00604.x

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Abstract

This article discusses recent experiences with the Numeral Unit Spread Assessment Pedigree (NUSAP) system for multidimensional uncertainty assessment, based on four case studies that vary in complexity. We show that the NUSAP method is applicable not only to relatively simple calculation schemes but also to complex models in a meaningful way and that NUSAP is useful to assess not only parameter uncertainty but also (model) assumptions. A diagnostic diagram can be used to synthesize results of quantitative analysis of parameter sensitivity and qualitative review (pedigree analysis) of parameter strength. It provides an analytic tool to prioritize uncertainties according to quantitative and qualitative insights in the limitations of available knowledge. We show that extension of the pedigree scheme to include societal dimensions of uncertainty, such as problem framing and value‐laden assumptions, further promotes reflexivity and collective learning. When used in a deliberative setting, NUSAP pedigree assessment has the potential to foster a deeper social debate and a negotiated management of complex environmental problems.

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Authors: Van Der Sluijs, J. P., Craye, M., Funtowicz, S., Kloprogge, P., Ravetz, J., & Risbey, J.
Affiliations: Joint Research Centre (IT)
Utrecht University (NL)
European Commission (BE)
Monash University (AU)
ORCID: Funtowicz, Silvio
Risbey, James
Venue: Risk Analysis
Publisher: Wiley
Published: 2005-04
Volume: 25
Issue: 2
Pages: 481-492
ISSN: 0272-4332 (ISSN-L)
1539-6924
DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2005.00604.x
OpenAlex: W2119214313
Cited by: 426
References: 19
Citations by year: 2026: 13 · 2025: 4 · 2024: 15 · 2023: 38 · 2022: 11 · 2021: 19 · 2020: 22 · 2019: 21 · 2018: 26 · 2017: 35 · 2016: 15 · 2015: 25 · 2014: 21 · 2013: 23 · 2012: 23
FWCI: 65.98
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: green
dspace.library.uu.nl
Licence: other-oa
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor (vor, 33 d)
Locations: Risk Analysis (publishedVersion)
PubMed (publishedVersion)
Utrecht University Repository (Utrecht University) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
Topics: Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law › Environmental and Social Impact Assessments
Physical Sciences › Engineering › Computational Mechanics › Probabilistic and Robust Engineering Design
Physical Sciences › Engineering › Safety, Risk, Reliability and Quality › Risk and Safety Analysis
Keywords: uncertainty analysis, multidimensional uncertainty, pedigree analysis, parameter sensitivity, model assumptions, diagnostic diagrams, problem framing, deliberative decision-making, collective learning, environmental assessment, model-based evaluation
MeSH terms: Vehicle Emissions, Computer Simulation, Environment, Environmental Monitoring, Environmental Pollutants, Models, Theoretical, Public Health, Software, Systems Theory, Models, Statistical, Risk Assessment, Uncertainty

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Combining Quantitative and Qualitative Measures of Uncertainty in Model‐Based Environmental Assessment: The NUSAP System

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