The DOI matches its Crossref record; 71 of the 71 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
Partitioning and mapping uncertainties in ensembles of forecasts of species turnover under climate change
Abstract
Forecasts of species range shifts under climate change are fraught with uncertainties and ensemble forecasting may provide a framework to deal with such uncertainties. Here, a novel approach to partition the variance among modeled attributes, such as richness or turnover, and map sources of uncertainty in ensembles of forecasts is presented. We model the distributions of 3837 New World birds and project them into 2080. We then quantify and map the relative contribution of different sources of uncertainty from alternative methods for niche modeling, general circulation models (AOGCM), and emission scenarios. The greatest source of uncertainty in forecasts of species range shifts arises from using alternative methods for niche modeling, followed by AOGCM, and their interaction. Our results concur with previous studies that discovered that projections from alternative models can be extremely varied, but we provide a new analytical framework to examine uncertainties in models by quantifying their importance and mapping their patterns.
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Cited by
Challenges in using land use and land cover data for global change studies
VERBURG, P. H., NEUMANN, K., & NOL, L. (2011) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2010.02307.x · Cited by 624
Climate change vulnerability assessment of species
Foden, W. B., Young, B. E., Akçakaya, H. R., Garcia, R. A., Hoffmann, A. A., Stein, B. A., Thomas, C. D., Wheatley, C. J., Bickford, D., Carr, J. A., et al. (2019) · WIREs Climate Change · doi:10.1002/wcc.551 · Cited by 527
Uncertainty in ensembles of global biodiversity scenarios
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The effects of climate change on tropical birds
Şekercioğlu, Ç. H., Primack, R. B., & Wormworth, J. (2012) · Biological Conservation · doi:10.1016/j.biocon.2011.10.019 · Cited by 460
Metadata
- Authors
- Diniz‐Filho, J. A. F., Mauricio Bini, L., Fernando Rangel, T., Loyola, R. D., Hof, C., Nogués‐Bravo, D., & Araújo, M. B.
- Venue
- Ecography
- Publisher
- Wiley
- Published
- 2009-12
- Volume
- 32
- Issue
- 6
- Pages
- 897-906
- ISSN
- 0906-7590 (ISSN-L)
- 1600-0587
- OpenAlex
- W2142733079
- Cited by
- 615
- References
- 71
- FWCI
- 14.03
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
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- Diniz‐Filho, J. A. F., Mauricio Bini, L., Fernando Rangel, T., Loyola, R. D., Hof, C., Nogués‐Bravo, D., & Araújo, M. B. (2009). Partitioning and mapping uncertainties in ensembles of forecasts of species turnover under climate change. Ecography. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0587.2009.06196.x
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Contains information from the Semantic Scholar Academic Graph Datasets, made available under the ODC Attribution License (ODC-BY 1.0).
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