The DOI matches its Crossref record.
A META‐ANALYSIS OF THE PREDICTORS OF ADULT OFFENDER RECIDIVISM: WHAT WORKS!*
Abstract
Meta‐analytic techniques were used to determine which predictor domains and actuarial assessment instruments were the best predictors of adult offender recidivism. One hundred and thirty‐one studies produced 1,141 correlations with recidivism. The strongest predictor domains were criminogenic needs, criminal history/history of antisocial behavior, social achievement, age/gender/race, and family factors. Less robust predictors included intellectual functioning, personal distress factors, and socioeconomic status in the family of origin. Dynamic predictor domains performed at least as well as the static domains. The LSI‐R was identified as the most useful actuarial measure. Recommendations for developing sound assessment practices in corrections are provided.
Overview
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Verification
Claims the paper makes
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
The importance of age and total number of previous convictions is consistent with the conclusions of two meta-analysis studies.
“The importance of these two criteria is consistent with the conclusions of two meta-analysis studies that set out to determine, in part, which criteria are most predictive of recidivism (8, 9).”
From The accuracy, fairness, and limits of predicting recidivism (2018) · cites this paper as [8]
Citations
Cites
No references could be resolved yet.
Research works printed but not linked: 129
- Adams Don, 1976, The effects of prison residents' community contacts on recidivism rates, Corrective and Social Psychiatry and Journal of Behavioral Technology, Methods, and Therapy, 22, 21
- 10.1177/0093854887014001004 · DOI
- 10.1037/h0079959 · DOI
- 10.1177/002242787200900204 · DOI
- 10.1111/j.1745-9125.1976.tb00003.x · DOI
- 10.1007/BF01066164 · DOI
- 10.1002/bsl.2370060209 · DOI
- 10.1111/j.1745-9125.1989.tb01038.x · DOI
- 10.1002/1097-4679(198511)41:6<780::AID-JCLP2270410610>3.0.CO;2-B · DOI
- 10.1111/j.1745-9125.1974.tb00641.x · DOI
- 10.1016/0160-2527(88)90024-6 · DOI
- Black Tony, 1985, Prediction in Criminology
- 10.1016/0160-2527(87)90030-6 · DOI
- Bonta James, 1989, Native inmates: Institutional response, risk, and needs, Canadian Journal of Criminology, 31, 49, 10.3138/cjcrim.31.1.49 · DOI
- 10.1177/0093854885012003004 · DOI
- 10.1177/0022427887024004006 · DOI
- 10.1111/j.1745-9125.1990.tb01336.x · DOI
- Bonta James, 1992, The characteristics of aboriginal recidivists, Canadian Journal of Criminology, 38, 517, 10.3138/cjcrim.34.3-4.517 · DOI
- 10.1177/000486589002300202 · DOI
- Broadhurst Roderick G., 1991, Sex Offending and Recidivism. Report No. 3. Crime Research Center
- 10.1177/0022427888025001005 · DOI
- 10.1177/002242787801500108 · DOI
- Buikhuisen W., 1974, Factors related to recidivism, British Journal of Criminology, 14, 62, 10.1093/oxfordjournals.bjc.a046511 · DOI
- Buikhuisen W., 1983, Prospective Studies of Crime and Delinquency
- Carlson Kenneth A., 1973, Some characteristics of recidivists in an Ontario institution for adult male first incarcerates, Canadian Journal of Criminology and Corrections, 15, 397, 10.3138/cjcc.15.2.397 · DOI
- 10.2307/3053536 · DOI
- 10.1001/archpsyc.1973.04200020088012 · DOI
- Donnelly Henry C., 1991, 1985 Releases: Five Year Post Release Follow‐Up
- 10.1002/1098-2337(1984)10:3<201::AID-AB2480100304>3.0.CO;2-S · DOI
- 10.1007/978-94-009-6672-7_3 · DOI
- Farrington David P., 1982, Abnormal Offenders, Delinquency, and the Criminal Justice System
- 10.1177/002580247501500306 · DOI
- 10.1007/BF01650290 · DOI
- 10.1177/000276483027001004 · DOI
- 10.1177/009385487900600110 · DOI
- Gendreau Paul, 1979, Norms and recidivism for first incarcerates: Implications for programming, Canadian Journal of Criminology, 21, 416, 10.3138/cjcrim.21.4.416 · DOI
- Gibbens T.C.N., 1984, Borstal boys after 25 years, British Journal of Criminology, 24, 49, 10.1093/oxfordjournals.bjc.a047424 · DOI
- 10.1192/bjp.142.2.169 · DOI
- Gottfredson Michael R., 1980, Decision Making in Criminal Justice: Toward the Rational Exercise of Discretion
- Gottfredson Don M., 1978, Guidelines for Parole and Sentencing: A Policy Control Method
- Greenberg William M., 1993, Recidivism on an acute psychiatric forensic service, Hospital and Community Psychiatry, 44, 583
- Grygier Tadeusz, 1971, Decision and outcome: Studies in parole prediction, Canadian Journal of Criminology and Corrections, 13, 133, 10.3138/cjcc.13.2.133 · DOI
- Gunn J., 1978, Psychiatric Aspects of Imprisonment
- Hamparian Donna, 1987, The Prediction of Criminal Violence
- Hann Robert G., 1988, Release risk prediction: Testing the Nuffield scoring system for native and female inmates
- Hann Robert G., 1992, Predicting General Release Risk for Canadian Penitentiary Inmates
- Hare Robert D., 1988, Male psychopaths and their criminal careers, Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology, 56, 710, 10.1037/0022-006X.56.5.710 · DOI
- 10.1037/0022-006X.56.2.227 · DOI
- 10.1016/0160-2527(83)90027-4 · DOI
- Hodgins Sheilagh, 1987, Men found unfit to stand trial andlor not guilty by reason of insanity: Recidivism, Canadian Journal of Criminology, 29, 51, 10.3138/cjcrim.29.1.51 · DOI
- 10.1016/0047-2352(83)90006-5 · DOI
- 10.1016/0047-2352(74)90031-2 · DOI
- 10.1016/0047-2352(76)90041-6 · DOI
- 10.1016/0047-2352(80)90025-2 · DOI
- Hoffman Peter B., Bumout‐age at release from prison and recidivism, Journal of Criminal Justice, 12, 617, 10.1016/0047-2352(84)90118-1 · DOI
- 10.1177/0093854885012004007 · DOI
- 10.1007/BF01047502 · DOI
- Holcomb William R., 1988, Arrest rates among young adult psychiatric patients treated in inpatient and outpatient settings, Hospital and Community Psychiatry, 39, 52
- 10.1037/0021-9010.68.2.203 · DOI
- 10.1037/0012-1649.20.6.1120 · DOI
- 10.1007/BF02088662 · DOI
- Jenkins W.O., 1977, The Behavioral Evaluation Treatment and Analysis (BETA) system in the prediction of criminal and delinquent behavior, Quarterly Journal of Corrections, 1, 44
- Kassebaum Gene G., 1971, Prison Treatment and Parole Survival: An Empirical Assessment
- Klein Stephen P., 1986, The Prevalence, Predictability, and Policy Implications of Recidivism
- 10.1192/bjp.152.1.80 · DOI
- Lambert Leah R., 1976, The adult female offender: The road from institution to community life, Canadian Journal of Criminology and Corrections, 18, 3
- 10.1016/0191-8869(87)90133-4 · DOI
- 10.1007/978-1-4612-3570-5 · DOI
- LeBlanc Marc, 1993, The prediction of males' adolescent and adult offending from school experience, Canadian Journal of Criminology, 25, 459
- 10.1177/0306624X9203600407 · DOI
- 10.2466/pr0.1989.65.3f.1171 · DOI
- 10.1007/978-94-009-6672-7_10 · DOI
- MacnaughtonSmith P., 1976, Permission to be Slightly Free
- McCord Joan, 1982, Abnormal Offenders, Delinquency, and the Criminal Justice System
- McCord Joan, 1982, A forty year perspective on effects of child abuse and neglect, Child Abuse and Neglect, 7, 265, 10.1016/0145-2134(83)90003-0 · DOI
- 10.1037/0021-843X.90.4.354 · DOI
- 10.1111/j.2044-8260.1978.tb00274.x · DOI
- McWilliams William, 1975, Sentencing and recidivism: An analysis by personality type, British Journal of Social Work, 5, 311
- 10.1007/BF01537887 · DOI
- 10.1007/BF02141545 · DOI
- Minor Kevin I., 1992, An evaluation of the Kalamazoo probation enhancement program, Federal Probation, 56, 30
- 10.1111/j.1469-7610.1981.tb00528.x · DOI
- 10.1080/00332747.1987.11024366 · DOI
- 10.1037/0021-843X.90.2.152 · DOI
- Motiuk Laurence L.1991Antecedents and consequences of prison adjustment: A systematic assessment and reassessment approach.Unpublished doctoral dissertation Carleton University Ottawa Ontario Canada .
- Motiuk Laurence L., 1993, Research and Statistics Branch
- Motiuk Laurence L., 1993, The Validity of Offender Needs Identification and Analysis in Community Correction
- Motiuk Laurence L., 1988, Offender Riskmeeds Assessment: A Study of Conditional Releases
- Motiuk Laurence L., 1989, Field Test of the Community Risk/Needs Management Scale: A Study of Offenders on Case Load
- 10.1177/0093854886013001003 · DOI
- 10.1002/1520-6629(197401)2:1<83::AID-JCOP2290020129>3.0.CO;2-S · DOI
- 10.1300/J418v02n02_02 · DOI
- 10.1080/00224545.1977.9924028 · DOI
- 10.1192/bjp.125.1.60 · DOI
- 10.1111/j.1600-0447.1982.tb00854.x · DOI
- Petersilia Joan, 1987, Prediction and Classification: Criminal Justice Decision Making
- 10.3109/10826087609056178 · DOI
- Porporino Frank J., Assessing models of predicting risk for criminal recidivism, Journal of Criminal Justice
- 10.1016/0191-8869(82)90058-7 · DOI
- Quinsey Vernon L., 1975, Oak Ridge patients: Prerelease characteristics and postrelease adjustment, Journal of Psychiatry and Law, 3, 63, 10.1177/009318537500300105 · DOI
- Rice Marnie E., 1991, Psychopathy, Schizophrenia, Alcohol Abuse and Violent Recidivism, 397
- 10.1037/0022-006X.59.3.381 · DOI
- Rice Marnie E., 1990, Criminological and Psychiatric Predictors of Recidivism among Male Insanity Acquittees
- Robins Lee N., 1980, The Social Consequences of Psychiatric Illness
- Robinson David, 1989, Validation of an Adult Offender Classification System for Newfoundland and Labrador
- Rogers Sally, 1981, Factors Related to Recidivism among Adult Probationers in Ontario
- 10.1300/J264v08n03_05 · DOI
- 10.1111/j.1745-9125.1974.tb00629.x · DOI
- Serin Ralph C., 1990, Recidivism Prediction: A Comparison of the Psychopathy Checklist and Actuarial Risk Scales
- Serin Ralph C., 1993, Decision issues in risk assessment, Federal Probation, 5, 22
- 10.1037/1040-3590.2.4.419 · DOI
- Shannon Lyle W., 1985, Risk assessment vs, real prediction: The prediction problem and public trust. Journal of Quantitative Criminology, 1, 159
- 10.1037/0022-006X.57.6.710 · DOI
- 10.1176/ajp.130.3.317 · DOI
- Steadman Henry J., 1974, Careers of the Criminally Insane: Excessive Social Control of Deviance
- 10.1176/ajp.135.7.816 · DOI
- Tarling Roger, 1985, Prediction in Criminology
- Tennent Gavin, 1984, The English special hospital ‐ A 12–17 year follow up study: A comparison of violent and nonviolent re‐offenders and non‐offenders, Medicine, Science, and the Law, 24, 81, 10.1177/002580248402400204 · DOI
- Thornberry Terence P., 1979, The Criminally Insane: A Community Follow‐up of Mentally Ill Offenders
- 10.1111/j.1469-7610.1988.tb00688.x · DOI
- 10.1177/002242787601300207 · DOI
- West Donald J., 1977, The Delinquent Way of Life
- 10.1016/0149-7189(90)90026-S · DOI
- 10.1126/science.2704995 · DOI · Paper page
- Wilbanks William L., 1985, Prediction in Criminology
- 10.1177/0093854884011001001 · DOI
- 10.1177/088626086001004002 · DOI
- 10.1111/j.1745-9125.1984.tb00291.x · DOI
- 10.1177/0093854890017001005 · DOI
Cited by
Sorted by citations
The Relationship Between Parenting and Delinquency: A Meta-analysis
Hoeve, M., Dubas, J. S., Eichelsheim, V. I., van der Laan, P. H., Smeenk, W., & Gerris, J. R. M. (2009) · Journal of Abnormal Child Psychology · doi:10.1007/s10802-009-9310-8 · Cited by 1,358
“Next to offence history, family factors were among the best predictors of recidivism compared to other domains, such as socio-economic status, intellectual functioning, and personal distress (Cottle et al. 2001; Gendreau et al. 1996).”
BackgroundThe accuracy, fairness, and limits of predicting recidivism
Dressel, J., & Farid, H. (2018) · Science Advances · doi:10.1126/sciadv.aao5580 · Cited by 1,071
The Principles of Effective Correctional Treatment Also Apply To Sexual Offenders: A Meta-Analysis
Hanson, R. K., Bourgon, G., Helmus, L., & Hodgson, S. (2009) · Criminal Justice and Behavior · doi:10.1177/0093854809338545 · Cited by 774
The Effectiveness of Restorative Justice Practices: A Meta-Analysis
Latimer, J., Dowden, C., & Muise, D. (2005) · The Prison Journal · doi:10.1177/0032885505276969 · Cited by 688
RISK, RACE, AND RECIDIVISM: PREDICTIVE BIAS AND DISPARATE IMPACT*
SKEEM, J. L., & LOWENKAMP, C. T. (2016) · Criminology · doi:10.1111/1745-9125.12123 · Cited by 317
Offender Rehabilitation: What We Know and What Needs to Be Done
GENDREAU, P. (1996) · Criminal Justice and Behavior · doi:10.1177/0093854896023001010 · Cited by 255
Self-citationA Meta-Analysis of the Predictors of Delinquency Among Girls
Hubbard, D. J., & Pratt, T. C. (2002) · Journal of Offender Rehabilitation · doi:10.1300/j076v34n03_01 · Cited by 227
Saunders, J., Hunt, P., & Hollywood, J. S. (2016) · Journal of Experimental Criminology · doi:10.1007/s11292-016-9272-0 · Cited by 193
The Amity Prison TC Evaluation: Reincarceration Outcomes
WEXLER, H. K., De LEON, G., THOMAS, G., KRESSEL, D., & PETERS, J. (1999) · Criminal Justice and Behavior · doi:10.1177/0093854899026002001 · Cited by 184
Systematic reviews of explanatory risk factors for violence, offending, and delinquency
Farrington, D. P., Gaffney, H., & Ttofi, M. M. (2017) · Aggression and Violent Behavior · doi:10.1016/j.avb.2016.11.004 · Cited by 146
Religiosity, Religious Participation, and Negative Prison Behaviors
KERLEY, K. R., MATTHEWS, T. L., & BLANCHARD, T. C. (2005) · Journal for the Scientific Study of Religion · doi:10.1111/j.1468-5906.2005.00296.x · Cited by 117
Ward, J. T., Krohn, M. D., & Gibson, C. L. (2014) · Journal of Interpersonal Violence · doi:10.1177/0886260513505219 · Cited by 42
Spruit, A., van der Put, C., Gubbels, J., & Bindels, A. (2017) · Journal of Criminal Justice · doi:10.1016/j.jcrimjus.2017.04.006 · Cited by 39
Joe, G. W., Knight, K., Simpson, D. D., Flynn, P. M., Morey, J. T., Bartholomew, N. G., Tindall, M. S., Burdon, W. M., Hall, E. A., Martin, S. S., et al. (2012) · Journal of Offender Rehabilitation · doi:10.1080/10509674.2012.633020 · Cited by 20
Papalia, N., Spivak, B., Daffern, M., & Ogloff, J. R. P. (2020) · Criminal Justice and Behavior · doi:10.1177/0093854820956377 · Cited by 19
Burraston, B. O., & Eddy, J. M. (2017) · Smith College Studies in Social Work · doi:10.1080/00377317.2017.1248634 · Cited by 15
Utilizing a Risk of Crime Measure for Recidivism Research: Moving Environmental Corrections Forward
Drawve, G., Caplan, J., & Ostermann, M. (2019) · Crime & Delinquency · doi:10.1177/0011128718779359 · Cited by 10
Ahmad, N., Stanton, O., Kelty, S. F., & Kavanagh, P. S. (2026) · Deviant Behavior · doi:10.1080/01639625.2026.2628897 · Cited by 1
Metadata
- Authors
- GENDREAU, P., LITTLE, T., & GOGGIN, C.
- Venue
- Criminology
- Publisher
- Wiley
- Published
- 1996-11
- Volume
- 34
- Issue
- 4
- Pages
- 575-608
- ISSN
- 0011-1384
- 1745-9125
- Cited by
- 1,244
- References
- 0
- Language
- en
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review