ESTIMATING INTERVENTION EFFECTS IN VARYING RISK SETTINGS: DO POLICE RAIDS REDUCE ILLEGAL DRUG DEALING AT NUISANCE BARS?*
Abstract
This paper investigates the effectiveness of police raids in reducing drug dealing in and around nuisance bars. We examine effects of both dosage (number of raids) and duration (months) of the intervention, as well as the conditioning effects of land use and population characteristics in shaping the underlying risk levels of drug dealing in the target and surrounding areas. Results indicate that the police intervention suppresses levels of drug dealing during periods of active enforcement, but the effects largely disappear when the intervention is withdrawn. Also, the effects of the intervention are mediated by risk characteristics in target and surrounding areas. Target areas characterized by higher levels of risk are more resistant to intervention effects than those with lower levels of risk. Risk factors in nearby areas are also significant. Bars with high levels of risk arising from land uses in surrounding areas are easier to treat, while bars with high levels of population‐based risk in surrounding areas are harder to treat.
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The Pittsburgh Police Raids at Nuisance Bars study found statistically significant reductions in drug calls in treatment bar areas relative to control bar areas that largely disappeared when the intervention ceased.
“Statistically significant reductions in drug calls in treatment bar areas relative to control bar areas that largely disappeared when intervention ceased”
From Hot spots policing of small geographic areas effects on crime (2019) · cites this paper as Cohen et al. (2003)
The Pittsburgh evaluators used a quasi-experimental design to compare trends in drug calls for service in targeted nuisance bar areas relative to trends in drug calls for service in non-nuisance bar areas.
“The evaluators used a quasi-experimental design to compare trends in drug calls for service in targeted nuisance bar areas relative to trends in drug calls for service in non-nuisance bar areas (Cohen, Gorr, and Singh 2003).”
From Hot spots policing effects on crime (2012) · cites this paper as Cohen, Gorr, and Singh 2003
To estimate intervention impacts, the Pittsburgh evaluators used OLS and Tobit regression models that controlled for land-use and population-based risk factors, secular trends, serial autocorrelation, length of enforcement periods, and the number of raids.
“To estimate intervention impacts, the evaluators used OLS and Tobit regression models that controlled for land-use and population-based risk factors, secular trends, serial autocorrelation, length of enforcement periods, and the number of raids.”
From Hot spots policing effects on crime (2012) · cites this paper as Cohen, Gorr, and Singh 2003
The Pittsburgh evaluators concluded that police raids resulted in statistically significant reductions in drug calls in the treatment areas relative to control areas during periods of active enforcement.
“The evaluators concluded that the police raids resulted in statistically significant reductions in drug calls in the treatment areas relative to control areas during periods of active enforcement.”
From Hot spots policing effects on crime (2012) · cites this paper as Cohen, Gorr, and Singh 2003
In the Pittsburgh nuisance bar program, these crime control gains largely disappeared when active enforcement ceased.
“These crime control gains largely disappeared when active enforcement ceased.”
From Hot spots policing effects on crime (2012) · cites this paper as Cohen, Gorr, and Singh 2003
Cites
Social Change and Crime Rate Trends: A Routine Activity Approach
Cohen, L. E., & Felson, M. (1979) · American Sociological Review · doi:10.2307/2094589 · Cited by 8,856 · see citing works
General deterrent effects of police patrol in crime “hot spots”: A randomized, controlled trial
Sherman, L. W., & Weisburd, D. (1995) · Justice Quarterly · doi:10.1080/07418829500096221 · Cited by 1,029 · see citing works
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Hot spots policing and crime reduction: an update of an ongoing systematic review and meta-analysis
Braga, A. A., Turchan, B. S., Papachristos, A. V., & Hureau, D. M. (2019) · Journal of Experimental Criminology · doi:10.1007/s11292-019-09372-3 · Cited by 352 · see citing works
Hot spots policing of small geographic areas effects on crime
Braga, A. A., Turchan, B., Papachristos, A. V., & Hureau, D. M. (2019) · Campbell Systematic Reviews: Better Evidence for a Better World · doi:10.1002/cl2.1046 · Cited by 226 · see citing works
Hot spots policing effects on crime
Braga, A., Papachristos, A., & Hureau, D. (2012) · Campbell Systematic Reviews: Better Evidence for a Better World · doi:10.4073/csr.2012.8 · Cited by 189 · see citing works
- Authors
- COHEN, J., GORR, W., & SINGH, P.
- Affiliations
- Carnegie Mellon University (US)
- University at Albany, State University of New York (US)
- Venue
- Criminology
- Publisher
- Wiley
- Published
- 2003-05
- Volume
- 41
- Issue
- 2
- Pages
- 257-292
- ISSN
- 0011-1384 (ISSN-L)
- 1745-9125
- OpenAlex
- W1964101076
- Cited by
- 78
- References
- 2
- Citations by year
- 2026: 3 · 2025: 2 · 2024: 2 · 2023: 4 · 2022: 2 · 2021: 8 · 2020: 2 · 2019: 9 · 2018: 3 · 2016: 5 · 2014: 4 · 2013: 4 · 2012: 4
- FWCI
- 14.34
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Criminology (publishedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Crime Patterns and Interventions
- Social Sciences › Political Science and International Relations › Policing Practices and Perceptions
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Crime, Illicit Activities, and Governance
- Keywords
- police raids, drug sales, intervention effectiveness, intervention dosage, intervention duration, risk factors, land use, demographic factors, crime prevention
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