The DOI matches its Crossref record; 4 of the 4 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
Preliminary prediction of the basic reproduction number of the Wuhan novel coronavirus 2019‐nCoV
Open accessAbstract
Objectives: To estimate the basic reproduction number of the Wuhan novel coronavirus (2019‐nCoV). Methods: Based on the susceptible‐exposed‐infected‐removed (SEIR) compartment model and the assumption that the infectious cases with symptoms occurred before 26 January, 2020 are resulted from free propagation without intervention, we estimate the basic reproduction number of 2019‐nCoV according to the reported confirmed cases and suspected cases, as well as the theoretical estimated number of infected cases by other research teams, together with some epidemiological determinants learned from the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS). Results: The basic reproduction number fall between 2.8 and 3.3 by using the real‐time reports on the number of 2019‐nCoV‐infected cases from People's Daily in China and fall between 3.2 and 3.9 on the basis of the predicted number of infected cases from international colleagues. Conclusions: The early transmission ability of 2019‐nCoV is close to or slightly higher than SARS. It is a controllable disease with moderate to high transmissibility. Timely and effective control measures are needed to prevent the further transmissions.
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Early transmission dynamics in Wuhan, China, of novel coronavirus-infected pneumonia
Li, Q., Guan, X., Wu, P., Wang, X., Zhou, L., Tong, Y., Ren, R., Leung, K. S. M., Lau, E. H. Y., Wong, J. Y., et al. (2020) · New England Journal of Medicine · doi:10.1056/nejmoa2001316 · Cited by 16,575
The Hidden Geometry of Complex, Network-Driven Contagion Phenomena
Brockmann, D., & Helbing, D. (2013) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1245200 · Cited by 1,253
Donnelly, C. A., Ghani, A. C., Leung, G. M., Hedley, A. J., Fraser, C., Riley, S., Abu-Raddad, L. J., Ho, L.-M., Thach, T.-Q., Chau, P., et al. (2003) · The Lancet · doi:10.1016/s0140-6736(03)13410-1 · Cited by 940
Using Mobile Phone Data to Predict the Spatial Spread of Cholera
Bengtsson, L., Gaudart, J., Lu, X., Moore, S., Wetter, E., Sallah, K., Rebaudet, S., & Piarroux, R. (2015) · Scientific Reports · doi:10.1038/srep08923 · Cited by 281 · cited 1×
“In order to have a better estimation of the basic reproduction number and effective reproduction number, as well as predicting the trend of epidemic transmission, we not only need to know precise epidemiological determinants, but also need to improve the model itself by further considering the diversity in susceptibil…”
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Quantifying SARS-CoV-2 transmission suggests epidemic control with digital contact tracing
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Nguyen, H. C., Nguyen, M. H., Do, B. N., Tran, C. Q., Nguyen, T. T. P., Pham, K. M., Pham, L. V., Tran, K. V., Duong, T. T., Tran, T. V., et al. (2020) · Journal of Clinical Medicine · doi:10.3390/jcm9040965 · Cited by 557
Billah, M. A., Miah, M. M., & Khan, M. N. (2020) · PLOS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0242128 · Cited by 260
Coronavirus disease (COVID-19): a scoping review
Lv, M., Luo, X., Estill, J., Liu, Y., Ren, M., Wang, J., Wang, Q., Zhao, S., Wang, X., Yang, S., et al. (2020) · Eurosurveillance · doi:10.2807/1560-7917.es.2020.25.15.2000125 · Cited by 122
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Metadata
- Authors
- Zhou, T., Liu, Q., Yang, Z., Liao, J., Yang, K., Bai, W., Lu, X., & Zhang, W.
- Venue
- Journal of Evidence-Based Medicine
- Publisher
- Wiley
- Published
- 2020-02
- Volume
- 13
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 3-7
- ISSN
- 1756-5383 (ISSN-L)
- 1756-5391
- OpenAlex
- W3006177842
- Cited by
- 366
- References
- 4
- FWCI
- 13.39
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
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- Zhou, T., Liu, Q., Yang, Z., Liao, J., Yang, K., Bai, W., Lu, X., & Zhang, W. (2020). Preliminary prediction of the basic reproduction number of the Wuhan novel coronavirus 2019‐nCoV. Journal of Evidence-Based Medicine. https://doi.org/10.1111/jebm.12376
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