Predicted growth in plastic waste exceeds efforts to mitigate plastic pollution
Open accessAbstract
A mess of plastic: It is not clear what strategies will be most effective in mitigating harm from the global problem of plastic pollution. Borrelle et al. and Lau et al. discuss possible solutions and their impacts. Both groups found that substantial reductions in plastic-waste generation can be made in the coming decades with immediate, concerted, and vigorous action, but even in the best case scenario, huge quantities of plastic will still accumulate in the environment. Science , this issue p. 1515 , p. 1455
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Claims the paper makes
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
Despite government efforts to limit plastic usage, the amount of plastic waste is expected to continue growing, exacerbating environmental and human health risks.
“Despite extensive government efforts to limit plastic usage through policies and regulations [3,6,7], the amount of plastic waste is expected to continue growing, exacerbating these risks [8].”
From The impact of mortality salience and explicit self-esteem on plastic reduction intention: A moderated mediation model (2025) · cites this paper as [8]
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
The self-check needs the paper’s full text.
Cites
Production, use, and fate of all plastics ever made
Geyer, R., Jambeck, J. R., & Law, K. L. (2017) · Science Advances · doi:10.1126/sciadv.1700782 · Cited by 18,606 · see citing works
Self-citationPlastic waste inputs from land into the ocean
Jambeck, J. R., Geyer, R., Wilcox, C., Siegler, T. R., Perryman, M., Andrady, A., Narayan, R., & Law, K. L. (2015) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1260352 · Cited by 13,163 · see citing works
Self-citationWhat a Waste 2.0: A Global Snapshot of Solid Waste Management to 2050
Kaza, S., Yao, L. C., Bhada-Tata, P., Van Woerden, F., & Levine, D. (2018) · doi:10.1596/978-1-4648-1329-0 · Cited by 6,126 · see citing works
New Global Hydrography Derived from Spaceborne Elevation Data
Lehner, B., Verdin, K., & Jarvis, A. (2008) · Eos, Transactions American Geophysical Union · doi:10.1029/2008eo100001 · Cited by 2,411 · see citing works
Future Scenarios of Global Plastic Waste Generation and Disposal
Lebreton, L., & Andrady, A. (2019) · Palgrave Communications · doi:10.1057/s41599-018-0212-7 · Cited by 2,327 · see citing works
Self-citationMicroplastics in freshwater ecosystems: what we know and what we need to know
Wagner, M., Scherer, C., Alvarez-Muñoz, D., Brennholt, N., Bourrain, X., Buchinger, S., Fries, E., Grosbois, C., Klasmeier, J., Marti, T., et al. (2014) · Environmental Sciences Europe · doi:10.1186/s12302-014-0012-7 · Cited by 1,543 · see citing works
Export of Plastic Debris by Rivers into the Sea
Schmidt, C., Krauth, T., & Wagner, S. (2017) · Environmental Science & Technology · doi:10.1021/acs.est.7b02368 · Cited by 1,418 · see citing works
Global warming releases microplastic legacy frozen in Arctic Sea ice
Obbard, R. W., Sadri, S., Wong, Y. Q., Khitun, A. A., Baker, I. A., & Thompson, R. C. (2014) · Earth s Future · doi:10.1002/2014ef000240 · Cited by 1,091 · see citing works
The Chinese import ban and its impact on global plastic waste trade
Brooks, A. L., Wang, S., & Jambeck, J. R. (2018) · Science Advances · doi:10.1126/sciadv.aat0131 · Cited by 955 · see citing works
Self-citationBucci, K., Tulio, M., & Rochman, C. M. (2020) · Ecological Applications · doi:10.1002/eap.2044 · Cited by 658 · see citing works
Villarrubia-Gómez, P., Cornell, S. E., & Fabres, J. (2018) · Marine Policy · doi:10.1016/j.marpol.2017.11.035 · Cited by 588 · see citing works
Wiedinmyer, C., Yokelson, R. J., & Gullett, B. K. (2014) · Environmental Science & Technology · doi:10.1021/es502250z · Cited by 527 · see citing works
How to globalize the circular economy
Geng, Y., Sarkis, J., & Bleischwitz, R. (2019) · Nature · doi:10.1038/d41586-019-00017-z · Cited by 434 · see citing works
Abandoned, lost or otherwise discarded fishing gear
Macfadyen, G., Huntington, T., & Cappell, R. (2009) · Cited by 316 · see citing works
Basel Convention on the Control of Transboundary Movements of Hazardous Wastes and Their Disposal
Damianagatayuvens, D. (2011) · Indonesian Journal of International Law · doi:10.17304/ijil.vol8.4.432 · Cited by 268 · see citing works
Gündoğdu, S., Çevik, C., Ayat, B., Aydoğan, B., & Karaca, S. (2018) · Environmental Pollution · doi:10.1016/j.envpol.2018.04.042 · Cited by 207 · see citing works
Woodall, L. C., Robinson, L. F., Rogers, A. D., Narayanaswamy, B. E., & PATERSON, G. L. J. (2015) · Frontiers in Marine Science · doi:10.3389/fmars.2015.00003 · Cited by 134 · see citing works
Nandy, B., Sharma, G., Garg, S., Kumari, S., George, T., Sunanda, Y., & Sinha, B. (2015) · Resources Conservation and Recycling · doi:10.1016/j.resconrec.2015.05.012 · Cited by 133 · see citing works
Potential pollution risks of historic landfills on low‐lying coasts and estuaries
Brand, J. H., Spencer, K. L., O’Shea, F. T., & Lindsay, J. E. (2017) · Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews Water · doi:10.1002/wat2.1264 · Cited by 92 · see citing works
The influx of marine debris from the Great Japan Tsunami of 2011 to North American shorelines.
Murray, C., Maximenko, N., & Lippiatt, S. (2018) · Marine Pollution Bulletin · doi:10.1016/j.marpolbul.2018.01.004 · Cited by 88 · see citing works
Over 1000 rivers accountable for 80% of global riverine plastic emissions into the oceanPreprint
Meijer, L. J. J., van Emmerik, T. H. M., Lebreton, L., Schmidt, C., & van der Ent, R. (2019) · EarthArXiv (California Digital Library) · doi:10.31223/osf.io/zjgty · Cited by 25 · see citing works
Self-citationOver 1000 rivers accountable for 80% of global riverine plastic emissions into the ocean
Meijer, L. J. J., van Emmerik, T. H. M., van der Ent, R., et al. (2020) · doi:10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-22000 · Cited by 18 · see citing works
Will innovation solve the global plastic contamination: how much innovation is needed for that?Preprint
Cordier, M., & Uehara, T. (2018) · doi:10.7287/peerj.preprints.27371v1 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Flagged first, then by citations
Research works printed but not linked: 3
- [4]4. M. Wagner et al., Environ. Sci. Eur. 26, 12 (2014).
- [6]6. L. C. Woodall, L. F. Robinson, A. D. Rogers, B. E. Narayanaswamy, G. L. Paterson, Front. Mar. Sci. 2, 2 (2015).
- [19]19. L. Lebreton, A. Andrady, Palgrave Commun. 5, 6 (2019).
Cited by
Sorted by citations
The global threat from plastic pollution
MacLeod, M., Arp, H. P. H., Tekman, M. B., & Jahnke, A. (2021) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.abg5433 · Cited by 2,951 · see citing works
Outside the Safe Operating Space of the Planetary Boundary for Novel Entities
Persson, L., Carney Almroth, B. M., Collins, C. D., Cornell, S., de Wit, C. A., Diamond, M. L., Fantke, P., Hassellöv, M., MacLeod, M., Ryberg, M. W., et al. (2022) · Environmental Science & Technology · doi:10.1021/acs.est.1c04158 · Cited by 1,347 · see citing works
Kumar, R., Verma, A., Shome, A., Sinha, R., Sinha, S., Jha, P. K., Kumar, R., Kumar, P., Shubham, Das, S., et al. (2021) · Sustainability · doi:10.3390/su13179963 · Cited by 1,111 · see citing works
The world of plastic waste: A review
Nayanathara Thathsarani Pilapitiya, P. G. C., & Ratnayake, A. S. (2024) · Cleaner Materials · doi:10.1016/j.clema.2024.100220 · Cited by 1,034 · see citing works
Chemically recyclable thermoplastics from reversible-deactivation polymerization of cyclic acetals
Abel, B. A., Snyder, R. L., & Coates, G. W. (2021) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.abh0626 · Cited by 483 · see citing works
Growing environmental footprint of plastics driven by coal combustion
Cabernard, L., Pfister, S., Oberschelp, C., & Hellweg, S. (2021) · Nature Sustainability · doi:10.1038/s41893-021-00807-2 · Cited by 458 · see citing works
Microplastic pollution in soil and groundwater: a review
Chia, R. W., Lee, J.-Y., Kim, H., & Jang, J. (2021) · Environmental Chemistry Letters · doi:10.1007/s10311-021-01297-6 · Cited by 414 · see citing works
Why is recycling of postconsumer plastics so challenging?
Vogt, B. D., Stokes, K. K., & Kumar, S. K. (2021) · ACS Applied Polymer Materials · doi:10.1021/acsapm.1c00648 · Cited by 385 · see citing works
Upcycling and catalytic degradation of plastic wastes
Hou, Q., Zhen, M., Qian, H., Nie, Y., Bai, X., Xia, T., Laiq Ur Rehman, M., Li, Q., & Ju, M. (2021) · Cell Reports Physical Science · doi:10.1016/j.xcrp.2021.100514 · Cited by 335 · see citing works
Design principles for intrinsically circular polymers with tunable properties
Shi, C., Reilly, L. T., Phani Kumar, V. S., Coile, M. W., Nicholson, S. R., Broadbelt, L. J., Beckham, G. T., & Chen, E. Y.-X. (2021) · Chem · doi:10.1016/j.chempr.2021.10.004 · Cited by 219 · see citing works
Catalytic Chemical Recycling of Post-Consumer Polyethylene
Arroyave, A., Cui, S., Lopez, J. C., Kocen, A. L., LaPointe, A. M., Delferro, M., & Coates, G. W. (2022) · Journal of the American Chemical Society · doi:10.1021/jacs.2c11949 · Cited by 189 · see citing works
Microplastic contamination in Great Lakes fish
Munno, K., Helm, P. A., Rochman, C., George, T., & Jackson, D. A. (2022) · Conservation Biology · doi:10.1111/cobi.13794 · Cited by 102 · see citing works
Self-citationAccelerated degradation of low-density polyethylene in air and in sea water
Andrady, A. L., Lavender Law, K., Donohue, J., & Koongolla, B. (2022) · Science of The Total Environment · doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.151368 · Cited by 83 · see citing works
Biodegradable chito-beads replacing non-biodegradable microplastics for cosmetics
Ju, S., Shin, G., Lee, M., Koo, J. M., Jeon, H., Ok, Y. S., Hwang, D. S., Hwang, S. Y., Oh, D. X., & Park, J. (2021) · Green Chemistry · doi:10.1039/d1gc01588e · Cited by 82 · see citing works
Quinn, E. C., Westlie, A. H., Sangroniz, A., Caputo, M. R., Xu, S., Zhang, Z., Urgun-Demirtas, M., Müller, A. J., & Chen, E. Y.-X. (2023) · Journal of the American Chemical Society · doi:10.1021/jacs.2c12897 · Cited by 70 · see citing works
Towards Higher Quality of Recycled Plastics: Limitations from the Material’s Perspective
Alassali, A., Picuno, C., Chong, Z. K., Guo, J., Maletz, R., & Kuchta, K. (2021) · Sustainability · doi:10.3390/su132313266 · Cited by 68 · see citing works
McMullen, K., Vargas, F. H., Calle, P., Alavarado-Cadena, O., Pakhomov, E. A., & Alava, J. J. (2024) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0296788 · Cited by 46 · see citing works
“In the Plasticene era, escalating plastic production has outpaced plastic elimination efforts, leading to its surge in the environment [1, 2].”
BackgroundKan, M., Wang, C., Zhu, B., Chen, W., Liu, Y., Ren, Y., & Xu, M. (2023) · Journal of Industrial Ecology · doi:10.1111/jiec.13427 · Cited by 38 · see citing works
Monique, M., Giuseppe, P., Francesca, F., Davide, D. P., Savoca, S., Gioele, C., Teresa, R., Giovanni, P., Eleonora, G., Nunziacarla, S., et al. (2022) · Science of The Total Environment · doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.157875 · Cited by 36 · see citing works
Rochman, C. M., Grbic, J., Earn, A., Helm, P. A., Hasenmueller, E. A., Trice, M., Munno, K., De Frond, H., Djuric, N., Santoro, S., et al. (2022) · Environmental Science & Technology · doi:10.1021/acs.est.2c00926 · Cited by 29 · see citing works
Self-citationTang, Y., Cen, Z., Ma, Q., Zheng, B., Cai, Z., Liu, S., & Wu, D. (2023) · Advanced Science · doi:10.1002/advs.202206924 · Cited by 27 · see citing works
Ecofriendly poly(3-hydroxybutyrate-co-4-hydroxybutyrate) microbeads for sanitary products
Choi, Y. H., Park, J. J., Sim, E. J., Lee, E., Yoon, K. C., & Park, W. H. (2023) · International Journal of Biological Macromolecules · doi:10.1016/j.ijbiomac.2022.10.237 · Cited by 16 · see citing works
Regulating the stereomicrostructure, circularity and functionality of synthetic PHAs
Quinn, E. C., Parker, C. R., Guillaume, S. M., & Chen, E. Y.-X. (2025) · Polymer Chemistry · doi:10.1039/d4py01313a · Cited by 16 · see citing works
Miller, M. E., Santana, M. F. M., Carsique, M., Motti, C. A., Hamann, M., & Kroon, F. J. (2022) · Environmental Pollution · doi:10.1016/j.envpol.2022.119545 · Cited by 13 · see citing works
Trophic transfer of polyester microfibres across a multi-level marine food web.
Miller, M. E., Motti, C. A., Snekkevik, V. K., Vickers, K., Kennedy, H., Bastin, L., Hamann, M., & Kroon, F. J. (2025) · Marine Pollution Bulletin · doi:10.1016/j.marpolbul.2025.118590 · Cited by 9 · see citing works
Chen, Y., Zhang, J., Zhang, Y., Cao, W., Liu, X., Bao, J., Zhang, X., & Chen, W. (2023) · Journal of Polymer Science · doi:10.1002/pol.20230425 · Cited by 9 · see citing works
Plastic bag photobioreactors applied to algal production
Kishi, M., & Takayama, Y. (2025) · Algal Bioreactors · doi:10.1016/b978-0-443-14058-7.00046-4 · Cited by 3 · see citing works
Gong, L., Hu, Z., Chen, Y., Zhang, J., Cao, W., Liu, X., Chen, W., & Bao, J. (2025) · Journal of Polymer Science · doi:10.1002/pol.20250032 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
Chiu, H.-L., Wang, K.-J., & Wang, T.-H. (2025) · PLOS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0320059 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
“Despite extensive government efforts to limit plastic usage through policies and regulations [3,6,7], the amount of plastic waste is expected to continue growing, exacerbating these risks [8].”
Cozzolino, L., Nicastro, K. R., McQuaid, C. D., Halldórsson, H. P., Lima, F. P., & Zardi, G. I. (2025) · Ecotoxicology and Environmental Safety · doi:10.1016/j.ecoenv.2025.118829 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
- Authors
- Borrelle, S. B., Ringma, J., Law, K. L., Monnahan, C. C., Lebreton, L., McGivern, A., Murphy, E., Jambeck, J., Leonard, G. H., Hilleary, M. A., Eriksen, M., Possingham, H. P., De Frond, H., Gerber, L. R., Polidoro, B., Tahir, A., Bernard, M., Mallos, N., Barnes, M., & Rochman, C. M.
- Affiliations
- University of Georgia (US)
- University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa (US)
- Sea Education Association (US)
- National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (US)
- The Ocean Cleanup (NL)
- University of Oxford (GB)
- Arizona State University (US)
- Ocean Conservancy (US)
- Virginia Tech (US)
- 5 Gyres Institute, Los Angeles, CA, USA.
- The Nature Conservancy (US)
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada.
- Hasanuddin University (ID)
- University of Toronto (CA)
- Corresponding author
- Borrelle, Stephanie B.
- Rochman, Chelsea M.
- ORCID
- Borrelle, Stephanie B.
- Ringma, Jeremy
- Law, Kara Lavender
- Monnahan, Cole C.
- Lebreton, Laurent
- McGivern, Alexis
- Murphy, Erin
- Jambeck, Jenna
- Leonard, George H.
- Hilleary, Michelle A.
- Eriksen, Marcus
- Possingham, Hugh P.
- De Frond, Hannah
- Gerber, Leah R.
- Polidoro, Beth
- Tahir, Akbar
- Bernard, Miranda
- Mallos, Nicholas
- Barnes, Megan
- Rochman, Chelsea M.
- Venue
- Science
- Published
- 2020-09-18
- Volume
- 369
- Issue
- 6510
- Pages
- 1515-1518
- ISSN
- 0036-8075 (ISSN-L)
- 1095-9203
- OpenAlex
- W3087333805
- Cited by
- 3,219
- References
- 23
- Citations by year
- 2026: 544 · 2025: 645 · 2024: 655 · 2023: 617 · 2022: 472 · 2021: 269 · 2020: 17
- FWCI
- 84.40
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- Licence
- public-domain
- Locations
- Science (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- NOAA Institutional Repository (submittedVersion, public-domain)
- UWA Profiles and Research Repository (UWA) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- National Socio-Environmental Synthesis Center (DBI-1639145)
- Smith Conservation Research Fellowship
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Pollution › Microplastics and Plastic Pollution
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Waste Management and Disposal › Waste Management and Recycling
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Waste Management and Disposal › Municipal Solid Waste Management
- Keywords
- plastic pollution, plastic waste, plastic emissions, plastic waste reduction, waste management, environmental recovery, marine ecosystems, freshwater ecosystems, mitigation measures
- MeSH terms
- Environmental Monitoring, Fresh Water, Plastics, Seawater, Waste Products, Water Pollution, Chemical, Waste Management
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review
