The DOI matches its Crossref record; 37 of the 37 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
Time‐Varying Fund Manager Skill
Abstract
We propose a new definition of skill as general cognitive ability to pick stocks or time the market. We find evidence for stock picking in booms and market timing in recessions. Moreover, the same fund managers that pick stocks well in expansions also time the market well in recessions. These fund managers significantly outperform other funds and passive benchmarks. Our results suggest a new measure of managerial ability that weighs a fund's market timing more in recessions and stock picking more in booms. The measure displays more persistence than either market timing or stock picking alone and predicts fund performance.
Overview
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Verification
Claims the paper makes
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
The self-check needs the paper’s full text.
Citations
Cites
A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and a New Simple Test
Maddala, G. S., & Wu, S. (1999) · Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics · doi:10.1111/1468-0084.0610s1631 · Cited by 7,460
Implications of rational inattention
Sims, C. A. (2003) · Journal of Monetary Economics · doi:10.1016/s0304-3932(03)00029-1 · Cited by 3,822
Measuring Mutual Fund Performance with Characteristic‐Based Benchmarks
DANIEL, K., GRINBLATT, M., TITMAN, S., & WERMERS, R. (1997) · The Journal of Finance · doi:10.1111/j.1540-6261.1997.tb02724.x · Cited by 2,778
Measuring Fund Strategy and Performance in Changing Economic Conditions
FERSON, W. E., & SCHADT, R. W. (1996) · The Journal of Finance · doi:10.1111/j.1540-6261.1996.tb02690.x · Cited by 1,759
Luck versus Skill in the Cross‐Section of Mutual Fund Returns
FAMA, E. F., & FRENCH, K. R. (2010) · The Journal of Finance · doi:10.1111/j.1540-6261.2010.01598.x · Cited by 1,754
The Variation of Economic Risk Premiums
Ferson, W. E., & Harvey, C. R. (1991) · Journal of Political Economy · doi:10.1086/261755 · Cited by 1,732
How Active Is Your Fund Manager? A New Measure That Predicts Performance
Cremers, K. J. M., & Petajisto, A. (2009) · Review of Financial Studies · doi:10.1093/rfs/hhp057 · Cited by 1,654
On the Industry Concentration of Actively Managed Equity Mutual Funds
KACPERCZYK, M., SIALM, C., & ZHENG, L. (2005) · The Journal of Finance · doi:10.1111/j.1540-6261.2005.00785.x · Cited by 1,090
Self-citationPresidential Address: The Cost of Active Investing
FRENCH, K. R. (2008) · The Journal of Finance · doi:10.1111/j.1540-6261.2008.01368.x · Cited by 855
Career Concerns of Mutual Fund Managers
Chevalier, J., & Ellison, G. (1999) · The Quarterly Journal of Economics · doi:10.1162/003355399556034 · Cited by 848
Cited by
Measuring skill in the mutual fund industry
Berk, J. B., & van Binsbergen, J. H. (2015) · Journal of Financial Economics · doi:10.1016/j.jfineco.2015.05.002 · Cited by 820
Winners in the spotlight: Media coverage of fund holdings as a driver of flows
Solomon, D. H., Soltes, E., & Sosyura, D. (2014) · Journal of Financial Economics · doi:10.1016/j.jfineco.2014.02.009 · Cited by 361
Mutual fund performance and flows during the COVID-19 crisis
Pástor, Ľ., & Vorsatz, M. B. (2020) · The Review of Asset Pricing Studies · doi:10.1093/rapstu/raaa015 · Cited by 319
What Do Mutual Fund Investors Really Care About?
Ben-David, I., Li, J., Rossi, A., & Song, Y. (2022) · The Review of Financial Studies · doi:10.1093/rfs/hhab081 · Cited by 305
Sparse Signals in the Cross‐Section of Returns
CHINCO, A., CLARK‐JOSEPH, A. D., & YE, M. (2019) · The Journal of Finance · doi:10.1111/jofi.12733 · Cited by 284
Metadata
- Authors
- KACPERCZYK, M., NIEUWERBURGH, S. V., & VELDKAMP, L.
- Venue
- The Journal of Finance
- Publisher
- Wiley
- Published
- 2014-07-18
- Volume
- 69
- Issue
- 4
- Pages
- 1455-1484
- ISSN
- 0022-1082 (ISSN-L)
- 1540-6261
- OpenAlex
- W2738776643
- Cited by
- 530
- References
- 37
- FWCI
- 43.04
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review
How to cite
Cite CoChat for the checks on this page, and the paper for its own findings.
- This page
- CoChat. (2026). Citation check: Time‐Varying Fund Manager Skill. https://app.cochat.ai/papers/10.1111/jofi.12084
- The paper
- KACPERCZYK, M., NIEUWERBURGH, S. V., & VELDKAMP, L. (2014). Time‐Varying Fund Manager Skill. The Journal of Finance. https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.12084
Data sources
Bibliographic data: Semantic Scholar, OpenAlex, Crossref.
Contains information from the Semantic Scholar Academic Graph Datasets, made available under the ODC Attribution License (ODC-BY 1.0).
Semantic Scholar’s data is described in: Kinney, R., et al. (2023). The Semantic Scholar Open Data Platform. arXiv:2301.10140.