Amazon tipping point
Open accessAbstract
Thomas E. Lovejoy Carlos Nobre In the 1970s, Brazilian scientist Eneas Salati shattered the long held dogma that vegetation is simply the consequence of climate and has no influence on climate whatsoever ( 1 ). Using isotopic ratios of oxygen in rainwater samples collected from the Atlantic to the Peruvian border, he was able to demonstrate unequivocally that the Amazon generates approximately half of its own rainfall by recycling moisture 5 to 6 times as airmasses move from the Atlantic across the basin to the west. From the start, the demonstration of the hydrological cycle of the Amazon raised the question of how much deforestation would be required to cause the cycle to degrade to the point of being unable to support rain forest ecosystems. High levels of evaporation and transpiration that forests produce throughout the year contribute to a wetter atmospheric boundary layer than would be the case with …
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A diminishing vegetation cover may fail to produce sufficient rain for the Amazon's own sustenance, with devastating local, regional, and global climate impacts.
“A diminishing vegetation cover may fail to produce sufficient rain for the Amazon's own sustenance, with devastating local, regional, and global climate impacts (Lovejoy and Nobre, 2018).”
From Beyond the “supply chain” framing: Cattle ranching as a vanishing mediator of deforestation and dispossession in the Brazilian and Colombian Amazon (2026) · cites this paper as Lovejoy and Nobre, 2018
In “Amazon Tipping Point” (page not specified), the paper says deforestation could degrade the rainfall cycle until it cannot support rainforest ecosystems. It also describes rainfall effects within the Amazon and in adjacent South America. Our copy does not describe global climate impacts as a consequence of that rainfall loss. (LLM, conf=0.87)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredGreater environmental risks await once 20-25% of the Amazonian vegetation cover is lost.
“as the tipping point literature warns that greater environmental risks await once 20-25% of the Amazonian vegetation cover is lost (Lovejoy and Nobre, 2018).”
From Beyond the “supply chain” framing: Cattle ranching as a vanishing mediator of deforestation and dispossession in the Brazilian and Colombian Amazon (2026) · cites this paper as Lovejoy and Nobre, 2018
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Research works printed but not linked: 1
- [2]Sampaio G., Nobre C. A., Costa M. H., Satyamurty P., Soares-Filho B. S., Cardoso M., Regional climate change over eastern Amazonia caused by pasture and soybean cropland expansion. Geophys. Res. Lett. 34, L17709 (2007).
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Exceeding 1.5°C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points
Armstrong McKay, D. I., Staal, A., Abrams, J. F., Winkelmann, R., Sakschewski, B., Loriani, S., Fetzer, I., Cornell, S. E., Rockström, J., & Lenton, T. M. (2022) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.abn7950 · Cited by 1,931 · see citing works
“Widespread Amazon dieback was originally projected at either 3 to 4°C of warming or ~40% deforestation ( 78 ) but uncertain synergistic interaction might lower the deforestation threshold to only ~20 to 25% ( 79 ).”
A Global Deal For Nature: Guiding principles, milestones, and targets
Dinerstein, E., Vynne, C., Sala, E., Joshi, A. R., Fernando, S., Lovejoy, T. E., Mayorga, J., Olson, D., Asner, G. P., Baillie, J. E. M., et al. (2019) · Science Advances · doi:10.1126/sciadv.aaw2869 · Cited by 792 · see citing works
Self-citationThe drivers and impacts of Amazon forest degradation
Lapola, D. M., Pinho, P., Barlow, J., Aragão, L. E. O. C., Berenguer, E., Carmenta, R., Liddy, H. M., Seixas, H., Silva, C. V. J., Silva-Junior, C. H. L., et al. (2023) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.abp8622 · Cited by 630 · see citing works
Making deforestation risk visible. Discourses on bovine leather supply chain in Brazil
Mammadova, A., Behagel, J., & Masiero, M. (2020) · Geoforum · doi:10.1016/j.geoforum.2020.03.008 · Cited by 26 · see citing works
Norris, D., Sabadini Carvalho, T., Guerrero, A. M., Sobral Escada, M. I., Alencar, A., Kimbrough, L., & Butler, R. A. (2022) · Tropical Conservation Science · doi:10.1177/19400829221132193 · Cited by 6 · see citing works
Bastos Lima, M. G., & López, J. (2026) · World Development · doi:10.1016/j.worlddev.2026.107532
- Authors
- Lovejoy, T. E., & Nobre, C.
- Affiliations
- George Mason University (US)
- ORCID
- Nobre, Carlos
- Venue
- Science Advances
- Published
- 2018-02-02
- Volume
- 4
- Issue
- 2
- Pages
- eaat2340-eaat2340
- ISSN
- 2375-2548 (ISSN-L)
- PMC
- PMC5821491
- OpenAlex
- W2790737279
- Cited by
- 660
- References
- 0
- Citations by year
- 2026: 89 · 2025: 73 · 2024: 77 · 2023: 79 · 2022: 95 · 2021: 90 · 2020: 92 · 2019: 45 · 2018: 18 · 2017: 1 · 2016: 1
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Licence
- cc-by-nc
- Locations
- Science Advances (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Ecosystem dynamics and resilience
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Conservation, Biodiversity, and Resource Management
- Keywords
- transpiration, evaporation, moisture recycling, deforestation, Amazon rainfall
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