The DOI matches its Crossref record; 31 of the 34 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
Oceanic forcing of Sahel rainfall on interannual to interdecadal time scales.
Abstract
We present evidence, based on an ensemble of integrations with NSIPP1 (version 1 of the atmospheric general circulation model developed at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in the framework of the Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction Project) forced only by the observed record of sea surface temperature from 1930 to 2000, to suggest that variability of rainfall in the Sahel results from the response of the African summer monsoon to oceanic forcing, amplified by land-atmosphere interaction. The recent drying trend in the semiarid Sahel is attributed to warmer-than-average low-latitude waters around Africa, which, by favoring the establishment of deep convection over the ocean, weaken the continental convergence associated with the monsoon and engender widespread drought from Senegal to Ethiopia.
Overview
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Verification
Claims the paper makes
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
In the citing paper
“Indeed, this observed drought tendency following the 1960s has been well reproduced with models only forced by observed SST (Giannini et al. 2003;Paeth and Hense 2004;Lu and Delworth 2005;Tippett 2006; Tippett and Giannini 2006).”
From Tropical Atlantic variability modes (1979-2002). Part I: Time-evolving SST modes related to West African rainfall (2008) · cites this paper as Giannini et al. 2003
In the citing paper
“However, some discriminant analyses have shown perfect uncoupled rainfall variability modes between the Sahel and the coast of the Gulf of Guinea (GG), associated with different global SST anomalies (Ward 1998;Giannini et al. 2003).”
From Tropical Atlantic variability modes (1979-2002). Part I: Time-evolving SST modes related to West African rainfall (2008) · cites this paper as Giannini et al. 2003
In the citing paper
“Without the standardization of the rainfall anomalies (as done in Giannini et al. 2003), the rainfall anomalies of the coast of the GG have higher amplitudes and appear as the leading mode.”
From Tropical Atlantic variability modes (1979-2002). Part I: Time-evolving SST modes related to West African rainfall (2008) · cites this paper as Giannini et al. 2003
Citations
Cites
The causes of land-use and land-cover change: moving beyond the myths
Lambin, E. F., Turner, B. L., Geist, H. J., Agbola, S. B., Angelsen, A., Bruce, J. W., Coomes, O. T., Dirzo, R., Fischer, G., Folke, C., et al. (2001) · Global Environmental Change · doi:10.1016/s0959-3780(01)00007-3 · Cited by 3,788
Statistical Analysis in Climate Research
Lund, R., von STORCH, H., & Zwiers, F. W. (2000) · Journal of the American Statistical Association · doi:10.2307/2669798 · Cited by 2,801
Statistical Analysis in Climate Research
von STORCH, H., & Zwiers, F. W. (1999) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/cbo9780511612336 · Cited by 2,761
Peixoto, J. P., & Oort, A. H. (1992) · Medical Entomology and Zoology · Cited by 1,888
Principal Component Analysis in Meteorology and Oceanography
Preisendorfer, R. W., & Mobley, C. D. (1988) · Cited by 1,785
Dynamics of deserts and drought in the Sahel
Charney, J. G. (1975) · Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society · doi:10.1002/qj.49710142802 · Cited by 1,405
Peixoto, J. P., Oort, A. H., Covey, C., & Taylor, K. E. (1992) · Physics Today · doi:10.1063/1.2809772 · Cited by 1,197
Sahel rainfall and worldwide sea temperatures, 1901–85
Folland, C. K., Palmer, T. N., & Parker, D. E. (1986) · Nature · doi:10.1038/320602a0 · Cited by 1,147
Nobre, P., & Srukla, J. (1996) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/1520-0442(1996)009 · Cited by 893
Expansion and Contraction of the Sahara Desert from 1980 to 1990
Tucker, C. J., Dregne, H. E., & Newcomb, W. W. (1991) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.253.5017.299 · Cited by 769
Enhancement of interdecadal climate variability in the Sahel by vegetation interaction.
Zeng, N., Neelin, J. D., Lau, K.-M., & Tucker, C. J. (1999) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.286.5444.1537 · Cited by 554
Variability of summer rainfall over tropical north Africa (1906-92): Observations and modelling
Rowell, D. P., Folland, C. K., Maskell, K., & Ward, M. N. (1995) · Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society · doi:10.1002/qj.49712152311 · Cited by 525
Vose, R. S., USDOE, W., Schmoyer, R. L., Steurer, P. M., Peterson, T., HEIM, R., Karl, T., & Eischeid, J. K. (1992) · doi:10.2172/10178730 · Cited by 491
Variance and Predictability of Precipitation at Seasonal-to-Interannual Timescales
Koster, R. D., Suárez, M. J., & Heiser, M. D. (2000) · Journal of Hydrometeorology · doi:10.1175/1525-7541(2000)001 · Cited by 432
Baring High-Albedo Soils by Overgrazing: A Hypothesized Desertification Mechanism
Otterman, J. (1974) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.186.4163.531 · Cited by 384
Misuses of Statistical Analysis in Climate Research
von STORCH, H. (1999) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-3-662-03744-7_2 · Cited by 366
Influence of the Atlantic, Pacific and Indian Oceans on Sahel rainfall
Palmer, T. N. (1986) · Nature · doi:10.1038/322251a0 · Cited by 252
Reframing Deforestation: Global Analyses and Local Realities: Studies in West Africa
Fairhead, J. R., & Leach, M. (1998) · Thammasat University Digital Collections · Cited by 248
Sud, Y. C., & Fennessy, M. J. (1982) · Journal of Climatology · doi:10.1002/joc.3370020202 · Cited by 191
Vizy, E. K., & Cook, K. H. (2002) · Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres · doi:10.1029/2001jd000686 · Cited by 190
Desertification in reverse? Observations from northern Burkina Faso
Rasmussen, K., Fog, B., & Madsen, J. E. (2001) · Global Environmental Change · doi:10.1016/s0959-3780(01)00005-x · Cited by 181
Relative contributions of land and ocean processes to precipitation variability
Koster, R. D., & Suárez, M. J. (1995) · Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres · doi:10.1029/95jd00176 · Cited by 138
The Pacific El Niño Phenomenon and the Atlantic Circulation
Covey, D. L., & HASTENRATH, S. L. (1978) · Monthly Weather Review · doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1978)106 · Cited by 126
Ocean-atmosphere-land feedbacks in an idealized monsoon
Chou, C. C. ‐., Neelin, J. D., & Su, H. (2001) · Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society · doi:10.1002/qj.49712757602 · Cited by 123
Some Aspects of Circulation and Climate over the Eastern Equatorial Atlantic
HASTENRATH, S. L., & Lamb, P. (1977) · Monthly Weather Review · doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1977)105 · Cited by 82
Price, C. (1994) · doi:10.1175/1520-0442(1994)007
Carlin (2002) · doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015
Chenoweth, M. (1993) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/1520-0442(1993)006
Motha (1980) · doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1980)108
Quesada (2001) · doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2001)014
Flagged first, then by citations
3 of the 34 references couldn’t be matched to a known paper.
Research works printed but not linked: 6
- M. H. Glantz, R. W. Katz, Ambio14 (no. 6), 334 (1985).
- D. P. Rowell, C. K. Folland, K. Maskell, M. N. Ward, Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc.121, 669 (1995).
- S. Janicot, A. Harzallah, B. Fontaine, V. Moron, J. Clim.11, 1874 (1998).
- 10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015<2616:TTTVCB>2.0.CO;2 · DOI
- N. A. Rayner et al. in press.
- 10.1175/1520-0442(1994)007<0929:IGSSTA>2.0.CO;2 · DOI
Cited by
Sorted by citations
Increasing drought under global warming in observations and models
Dai, A. (2013) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/nclimate1633 · Cited by 4,762
Drought under global warming: a review
Dai, A. (2011) · WIREs Climate Change · doi:10.1002/wcc.81 · Cited by 3,523
Global indirect aerosol effects: a review
Lohmann, U., & Feichter, J. (2005) · Atmospheric chemistry and physics · doi:10.5194/acp-5-715-2005 · Cited by 2,731
Changes in Climate Extremes and their Impacts on the Natural Physical Environment
Seneviratne, S. I., Nicholls, N., Easterling, D. R., Goodess, C. M., Kanae, S., Kossin, J. P., Luo, Y., Marengo, J. A., McInnes, K. L., Rahimi, M., et al. (2012) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/cbo9781139177245.006 · Cited by 2,609
Indian Ocean circulation and climate variability
Schott, F. A., Xie, S., & McCreary, J. P. (2009) · Reviews of Geophysics · doi:10.1029/2007rg000245 · Cited by 1,647
Metadata
- Authors
- Giannini, A., Saravanan, R., & Chang, P.
- Affiliations
- NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research (US)
- Venue
- Science
- Published
- 2003-11-07
- Volume
- 302
- Issue
- 5647
- Pages
- 1027-1030
- ISSN
- 0036-8075 (ISSN-L)
- 1095-9203
- OpenAlex
- W2144927855
- Cited by
- 1,058
- References
- 34
- Citations by year
- 2026: 23 · 2025: 35 · 2024: 30 · 2023: 35 · 2022: 50 · 2021: 41 · 2020: 62 · 2019: 44 · 2018: 49 · 2017: 49 · 2016: 59 · 2015: 61 · 2014: 50 · 2013: 47 · 2012: 45
- FWCI
- 47.52
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Science (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Hydrology and Drought Analysis
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Atmospheric aerosols and clouds
- Keywords
- ocean-atmosphere interaction, sea surface temperature forcing, land-atmosphere interactions, Sahel drought, deep convection, interannual variability, interdecadal variability, semi-arid climate
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review
