Cited by 2,208Ecosystem dynamics and resilienceComplex Network Analysis TechniquesMathematical and Theoretical Epidemiology and Ecology Models

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Anticipating Critical Transitions

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Scheffer, Marten, Carpenter, Stephen R., Lenton, Timothy M., Bascompte, Jordi, Brock, William, Dakos, Vasilis, van de Koppel, Johan, van de Leemput, Ingrid A., Levin, Simon A., van Nes, Egbert H., Pascual, Mercedes, Vandermeer, John·2012·Science

DOI 10.1126/science.1225244

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Abstract

All Change: Research on early warning signals for critical transitions in complex systems such as ecosystems, climate, and global finance systems recently has been gathering pace. At the same time, studies on complex networks are starting to reveal which architecture may cause systems to be vulnerable to systemic collapse. Scheffer et al. (p. 344 ) review how previously isolated lines of work can be connected, conclude that many critical transitions (such as escape from the poverty trap) can have positive outcomes, and highlight how the new approaches to sensing fragility can help to detect both risks and opportunities for desired change.

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Baud, M. O., Proix, T., Gregg, N. M., Brinkmann, B. H., Nurse, E. S., Cook, M. J., & Karoly, P. J. (2022) · Epilepsia · doi:10.1111/epi.17311 · Cited by 49
“Related to these intricate cycles, some clinical evidence 33,72,73 supports the theoretical prediction 74,75 that critical slowing may signal approaching ictal transitions (a bifurcation) at timescales longer than the seizures themselves.”
Background
Ecological complexity and the biosphere: the next 30 years
Solé, R. V., & Levin, S. A. (2022) · Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B Biological Sciences · doi:10.1098/rstb.2021.0376 · Cited by 52
“statistical patters of fluctuations that are expected to occur close to critical points [9,80].”
BackgroundSelf-citation
Bacterial succession in epiphytic biofilms and deciduous layer sediments during Hydrilla verticillata decay: A field investigation
Si, T., Chen, H., Qiu, Z., Zhang, L., Ohore, O. E., & Zhang, S. (2020) · Journal of Environmental Sciences · doi:10.1016/j.jes.2020.03.008 · Cited by 45
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“In the presence of small random fluctuations, the approach to the critical point is often associated with predictable trends of several statistical indicators of variability, which have been proposed as early warning signals of impending transitions [35, 36].”
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Critical transition and reversion of tumorigenesis
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Probability of noise- and rate-induced tipping
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A viewpoint on considering physiological principles to study stress resistance and resilience with aging
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Sustainable energy development: How can the tension between energy security and energy transition be measured and managed in South Africa?
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The Kaikōura earthquake in southern New Zealand: Loss of connectivity of marine communities and the necessity of a cross‐ecosystem perspective
Schiel, D. R., Alestra, T., Gerrity, S., Orchard, S., Dunmore, R. A., Pirker, J., Lilley, S. A., Tait, L. W., Hickford, M. J. H., & Thomsen, M. S. (2019) · Aquatic Conservation Marine and Freshwater Ecosystems · doi:10.1002/aqc.3122 · Cited by 45
Climate and Nutrient-Driven Regime Shifts of Cyanobacterial Communities in Low-Latitude Plateau Lakes
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Climate-driven invasion and incipient warnings of kelp ecosystem collapse
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Seizures Start without Common Signatures of Critical Transition
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BackgroundInfluential
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Self-citation

Authors: Scheffer, M., Carpenter, S. R., Lenton, T. M., Bascompte, J., Brock, W., Dakos, V., van de Koppel, J., van de Leemput, I. A., Levin, S. A., van Nes, E. H., Pascual, M., & Vandermeer, J.
Affiliations: Wageningen University & Research (NL)
University of Wisconsin–Madison (US)
University of Exeter (GB)
Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (ES)
Spatial Ecology Department, Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research (NIOZ), Post Office Box 140, 4400AC, Yerseke, Netherlands.
Department of Environmental Sciences, Wageningen University, Post Office Box 47, NL-6700 AA Wageningen, Netherlands.
Princeton University (US)
Santa Fe Institute (US)
Howard Hughes Medical Institute (US)
ORCID: Scheffer, Marten
Carpenter, Stephen R.
Lenton, Timothy M.
Bascompte, Jordi
Dakos, Vasilis
Levin, Simon A.
Pascual, Mercedes
Vandermeer, John
Venue: Science
Publisher: American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
Published: 2012-10-19
Volume: 338
Issue: 6105
Pages: 344-348
ISSN: 0036-8075 (ISSN-L)
1095-9203
DOI: 10.1126/science.1225244
OpenAlex: W2153268540
Cited by: 2,208
References: 71
Citations by year: 2026: 170 · 2025: 174 · 2024: 149 · 2023: 175 · 2022: 197 · 2021: 200 · 2020: 185 · 2019: 196 · 2018: 151 · 2017: 154 · 2016: 135 · 2015: 120 · 2014: 118 · 2013: 80 · 2012: 4
FWCI: 8.02
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: green
research.wur.nl
Locations: Science (publishedVersion)
PubMed (publishedVersion)
Socio-Environmental Systems Modeling (acceptedVersion)
Flanders Marine Institute (Flanders Marine Institute) (submittedVersion)
HAL (submittedVersion)
DIGITAL.CSIC (Spanish National Research Council (CSIC)) (submittedVersion)
NIOZ Publications (Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research) (submittedVersion)
University of Groningen research database (University of Groningen / Centre for Information Technology) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
Data Archiving and Networked Services (DANS) (submittedVersion)
Funders: National Science Foundation (1144683)
Howard Hughes Medical Institute
Natural Environment Research Council (NE/F005474/1)
Division of Environmental Biology (1144683)
Topics: Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Ecosystem dynamics and resilience
Physical Sciences › Physics and Astronomy › Statistical and Nonlinear Physics › Complex Network Analysis Techniques
Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Applied Mathematics › Mathematical and Theoretical Epidemiology and Ecology Models
Keywords: tipping points, complex systems, early warning indicators, ecological networks, financial markets, system collapse
MeSH terms: Animals, Forecasting, Humans, Risk Assessment

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