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Anticipating Critical Transitions
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All Change: Research on early warning signals for critical transitions in complex systems such as ecosystems, climate, and global finance systems recently has been gathering pace. At the same time, studies on complex networks are starting to reveal which architecture may cause systems to be vulnerable to systemic collapse. Scheffer et al. (p. 344 ) review how previously isolated lines of work can be connected, conclude that many critical transitions (such as escape from the poverty trap) can have positive outcomes, and highlight how the new approaches to sensing fragility can help to detect both risks and opportunities for desired change.
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Tipping Points Near a Delayed Saddle Node Bifurcation with Periodic Forcing
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Dasgupta, P. S., Mitra, T., & Sorger, G. (2018) · Environmental and Resource Economics · doi:10.1007/s10640-018-0221-4 · Cited by 21
Grain-Boundary Roughening in Colloidal Crystals
Liao, M., Xiao, X., Chui, S. T., & Han, Y. (2018) · Physical Review X · doi:10.1103/physrevx.8.021045 · Cited by 21
Cota, V. R., de Oliveira, J. C., Damázio, L. C. M., & Moraes, M. F. D. (2019) · Epilepsy & Behavior · doi:10.1016/j.yebeh.2019.106609 · Cited by 21
Phillips, B., Anand, M., & Bauch, C. T. (2020) · Scientific Reports · doi:10.1038/s41598-020-63849-0 · Cited by 21
Koizumi, K., Oku, M., Hayashi, S., Inujima, A., Shibahara, N., Chen, L., Igarashi, Y., Tobe, K., Saito, S., Kadowaki, M., et al. (2020) · Evidence-based Complementary and Alternative Medicine · doi:10.1155/2020/9129134 · Cited by 21
“Because increases in fluctuations and correlation strength generally indicate reduced stability or resilience from the viewpoint of dynamical systems theory [8, 9, 25, 26], the elimination of the peaks suggests that BTS helps to retain high stability or resilience in the health condition of TSODmice, which may, in tur…”
BackgroundEcosystem Shifts: Implications for Groundwater Management
Esteban, E., Calvo, E., & Albiac, J. (2021) · Environmental and Resource Economics · doi:10.1007/s10640-021-00569-7 · Cited by 21
Dong, C., Shi, Y., Wang, J., Zeng, H., & Wang, W. (2021) · Land Degradation and Development · doi:10.1002/ldr.3935 · Cited by 19
“Bacterial diversity may not show a recognizable reduction until a critical threshold for N enrichment level has been attained (Scheffer et al., 2012).”
BackgroundMetabolic and Transcriptional Changes across Osteogenic Differentiation of Mesenchymal Stromal Cells
Sigmarsdóttir, Þ. B., McGarrity, S., de Lomana, A. L. G., Kotronoulas, A., Sigurðsson, S., Yurkovich, J. T., Rolfsson, Ó., & Sigurjónsson, Ó. E. (2021) · Bioengineering · doi:10.3390/bioengineering8120208 · Cited by 21
“This pattern is consistent with a critical state transition before a bifurcation point [54] and has been experimentally observed in other differentiation systems [55].”
ResultHuang, S., Zhang, K., Lin, Q., Kattel, G., & Shen, J. (2022) · Quaternary Science Reviews · doi:10.1016/j.quascirev.2022.107522 · Cited by 21
Macroeconomic conditions, corporate default, and default clustering
Xing, K., Luo, D., & Liu, L. (2022) · Economic Modelling · doi:10.1016/j.econmod.2022.106079 · Cited by 21
MODELING SOCIAL RESILIENCE: QUESTIONS, ANSWERS, OPEN PROBLEMS
Schweitzer, F., Andres, G., Casiraghi, G., Gote, C., Roller, R., Scholtes, I., Vaccario, G., & Zingg, C. (2022) · Advances in Complex Systems · doi:10.1142/s021952592250014x · Cited by 24
“So far, theoretical research on resilience and empirical research on resilience indicators have been largely segregated [138].”
BackgroundDisasters collide at the intersection of extreme weather and infectious diseases
Drake, J. M., Marty, É., Gandhi, K. J. K., Welch‐Devine, M., Bledsoe, B. P., Shepherd, J. M., Seymour, L., Fortuin, C. C., & Montes, C. R. (2023) · Ecology Letters · doi:10.1111/ele.14188 · Cited by 21
Zhao, J., Li, J., Zuo, L., Liu, G., & Su, X. (2023) · Ecological Indicators · doi:10.1016/j.ecolind.2023.110263 · Cited by 21
Past disturbances and local conditions influence the recovery rates of coral reefs
Walker, A. S., Kratochwill, C., & van Woesik, R. (2024) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/gcb.17112 · Cited by 21
“Therefore, contrary to theoretical expectations (Dakos et al., 2012; Livina et al., 2010; Scheffer et al., 2012; Scheffer & van Nes, 2006; Veraart et al., 2011), our study did not find an overall slowing of recovery rates with increased marine heat-waves in the Pacific Ocean.”
BackgroundResult
Metadata
- Authors
- Scheffer, M., Carpenter, S. R., Lenton, T. M., Bascompte, J., Brock, W., Dakos, V., van de Koppel, J., van de Leemput, I. A., Levin, S. A., van Nes, E. H., Pascual, M., & Vandermeer, J.
- Affiliations
- Wageningen University & Research (NL)
- University of Wisconsin–Madison (US)
- University of Exeter (GB)
- Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (ES)
- Spatial Ecology Department, Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research (NIOZ), Post Office Box 140, 4400AC, Yerseke, Netherlands.
- Department of Environmental Sciences, Wageningen University, Post Office Box 47, NL-6700 AA Wageningen, Netherlands.
- Princeton University (US)
- Santa Fe Institute (US)
- Howard Hughes Medical Institute (US)
- ORCID
- Venue
- Science
- Published
- 2012-10-19
- Volume
- 338
- Issue
- 6105
- Pages
- 344-348
- ISSN
- 0036-8075 (ISSN-L)
- 1095-9203
- OpenAlex
- W2153268540
- Cited by
- 2,208
- References
- 71
- Citations by year
- 2026: 170 · 2025: 174 · 2024: 149 · 2023: 175 · 2022: 197 · 2021: 200 · 2020: 185 · 2019: 196 · 2018: 151 · 2017: 154 · 2016: 135 · 2015: 120 · 2014: 118 · 2013: 80 · 2012: 4
- FWCI
- 8.02
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- research.wur.nl
- Locations
- Science (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Socio-Environmental Systems Modeling (acceptedVersion)
- Flanders Marine Institute (Flanders Marine Institute) (submittedVersion)
- HAL (submittedVersion)
- DIGITAL.CSIC (Spanish National Research Council (CSIC)) (submittedVersion)
- NIOZ Publications (Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research) (submittedVersion)
- University of Groningen research database (University of Groningen / Centre for Information Technology) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- Data Archiving and Networked Services (DANS) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- National Science Foundation (1144683)
- Howard Hughes Medical Institute
- Natural Environment Research Council (NE/F005474/1)
- Division of Environmental Biology (1144683)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Ecosystem dynamics and resilience
- Physical Sciences › Physics and Astronomy › Statistical and Nonlinear Physics › Complex Network Analysis Techniques
- Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Applied Mathematics › Mathematical and Theoretical Epidemiology and Ecology Models
- Keywords
- tipping points, complex systems, early warning indicators, ecological networks, financial markets, system collapse
- MeSH terms
- Animals, Forecasting, Humans, Risk Assessment
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