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Anticipating Critical Transitions
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All Change: Research on early warning signals for critical transitions in complex systems such as ecosystems, climate, and global finance systems recently has been gathering pace. At the same time, studies on complex networks are starting to reveal which architecture may cause systems to be vulnerable to systemic collapse. Scheffer et al. (p. 344 ) review how previously isolated lines of work can be connected, conclude that many critical transitions (such as escape from the poverty trap) can have positive outcomes, and highlight how the new approaches to sensing fragility can help to detect both risks and opportunities for desired change.
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“This is because all of these signals indicate that the system is getting slower in recovering from minor perturbations, which is also referred to as ‘critical slowing down’ (Scheffer et al., 2009; Scheffer et al., 2012; van de Leemput et al., 2014).”
Background
Metadata
- Authors
- Scheffer, M., Carpenter, S. R., Lenton, T. M., Bascompte, J., Brock, W., Dakos, V., van de Koppel, J., van de Leemput, I. A., Levin, S. A., van Nes, E. H., Pascual, M., & Vandermeer, J.
- Affiliations
- Wageningen University & Research (NL)
- University of Wisconsin–Madison (US)
- University of Exeter (GB)
- Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (ES)
- Spatial Ecology Department, Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research (NIOZ), Post Office Box 140, 4400AC, Yerseke, Netherlands.
- Department of Environmental Sciences, Wageningen University, Post Office Box 47, NL-6700 AA Wageningen, Netherlands.
- Princeton University (US)
- Santa Fe Institute (US)
- Howard Hughes Medical Institute (US)
- ORCID
- Venue
- Science
- Published
- 2012-10-19
- Volume
- 338
- Issue
- 6105
- Pages
- 344-348
- ISSN
- 0036-8075 (ISSN-L)
- 1095-9203
- OpenAlex
- W2153268540
- Cited by
- 2,208
- References
- 71
- Citations by year
- 2026: 170 · 2025: 174 · 2024: 149 · 2023: 175 · 2022: 197 · 2021: 200 · 2020: 185 · 2019: 196 · 2018: 151 · 2017: 154 · 2016: 135 · 2015: 120 · 2014: 118 · 2013: 80 · 2012: 4
- FWCI
- 8.02
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- research.wur.nl
- Locations
- Science (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Socio-Environmental Systems Modeling (acceptedVersion)
- Flanders Marine Institute (Flanders Marine Institute) (submittedVersion)
- HAL (submittedVersion)
- DIGITAL.CSIC (Spanish National Research Council (CSIC)) (submittedVersion)
- NIOZ Publications (Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research) (submittedVersion)
- University of Groningen research database (University of Groningen / Centre for Information Technology) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- Data Archiving and Networked Services (DANS) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- National Science Foundation (1144683)
- Howard Hughes Medical Institute
- Natural Environment Research Council (NE/F005474/1)
- Division of Environmental Biology (1144683)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Ecosystem dynamics and resilience
- Physical Sciences › Physics and Astronomy › Statistical and Nonlinear Physics › Complex Network Analysis Techniques
- Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Applied Mathematics › Mathematical and Theoretical Epidemiology and Ecology Models
- Keywords
- tipping points, complex systems, early warning indicators, ecological networks, financial markets, system collapse
- MeSH terms
- Animals, Forecasting, Humans, Risk Assessment
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