Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide and Aerosols: Effects of Large Increases on Global Climate

Rasool, S. I.; Schneider, S. H.

doi:10.1126/science.173.3992.138

Cited by 312Atmospheric aerosols and cloudsClimate variability and modelsClimate Change and Geoengineering

Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide and Aerosols: Effects of Large Increases on Global Climate

Rasool, S. I., Schneider, S. H.·1971·Science

DOI 10.1126/science.173.3992.138

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Abstract

Effects on the global temperature of large increases in carbon dioxide and aerosol densities in the atmosphere of Earth have been computed. It is found that, although the addition of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere does increase the surface temperature, the rate of temperature increase diminishes with increasing carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. For aerosols, however, the net effect of increase in density is to reduce the surface temperature of Earth. Because of the exponential dependence of the backscattering, the rate of temperature decrease is augmented with increasing aerosol content. An increase by only a factor of 4 in global aerosol background concentration may be sufficient to reduce the surface temperature by as much as 3.5 degrees K. If sustained over a period of several years, such a temperature decrease over the whole globe is believed to be sufficient to trigger an ice age.

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Rasool and Schneider (1971) proposed that an increase by a factor of 4 in global aerosol concentrations could be enough to trigger an ice age.
“An increase by a factor of 4 in global aerosol concentrations, 'which cannot be ruled out as a possibility,' could be enough to trigger an ice age (Rasool and Schneider 1971).”
From THE MYTH OF THE 1970s GLOBAL COOLING SCIENTIFIC CONSENSUS (2008) · cites this paper as Rasool and Schneider 1971

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Authors: Rasool, S. I., & Schneider, S. H.
Affiliations: Goddard Institute for Space Studies (US)
ORCID: Schneider, S. H.
Venue: Science
Publisher: American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
Published: 1971-07-09
Volume: 173
Issue: 3992
Pages: 138-141
ISSN: 0036-8075 (ISSN-L)
1095-9203
DOI: 10.1126/science.173.3992.138
OpenAlex: W2048147675
Cited by: 312
References: 21
Citations by year: 2026: 3 · 2025: 1 · 2024: 2 · 2023: 19 · 2022: 5 · 2021: 2 · 2020: 6 · 2019: 7 · 2018: 3 · 2017: 6 · 2016: 10 · 2015: 5 · 2014: 2 · 2013: 4 · 2012: 5
FWCI: 65.51
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: closed
Locations: Science (publishedVersion)
PubMed (publishedVersion)
Topics: Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Atmospheric aerosols and clouds
Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate Change and Geoengineering
Keywords: atmospheric CO2, aerosols, global climate, surface temperature, radiative forcing, backscattering, ice ages, greenhouse effect, aerosol concentration

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Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide and Aerosols: Effects of Large Increases on Global Climate

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