Variations in the Earth's Orbit: Pacemaker of the Ice Ages: For 500,000 years, major climatic changes have followed variations in obliquity and precession.
Abstract
1) Three indices of global climate have been monitored in the record of the past 450,000 years in Southern Hemisphere ocean-floor sediments. 2) Over the frequency range 10(-4) to 10(-5) cycle per year, climatic variance of these records is concentrated in three discrete spectral peaks at periods of 23,000, 42,000, and approximately 100,000 years. These peaks correspond to the dominant periods of the earth's solar orbit, and contain respectively about 10, 25, and 50 percent of the climatic variance. 3) The 42,000-year climatic component has the same period as variations in the obliquity of the earth's axis and retains a constant phase relationship with it. 4) The 23,000-year portion of the variance displays the same periods (about 23,000 and 19,000 years) as the quasi-periodic precession index. 5) The dominant, 100,000-year climatic [See table in the PDF file] component has an average period close to, and is in phase with, orbital eccentricity. Unlike the correlations between climate and the higher-frequency orbital variations (which can be explained on the assumption that the climate system responds linearly to orbital forcing), an explanation of the correlation between climate and eccentricity probably requires an assumption of nonlinearity. 6) It is concluded that changes in the earth's orbital geometry are the fundamental cause of the succession of Quaternary ice ages. 7) A model of future climate based on the observed orbital-climate relationships, but ignoring anthropoge…
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CLIMAP predicted that in the absence of possible anthropogenic warming, the long-term trend over the next several thousand years is toward extensive Northern Hemisphere glaciation.
“Members of the Climate: Long-range Investigation, Mapping and Prediction (CLIMAP) project lived up to their project's name with a 'prediction' of sorts; in the absence of possible anthropogenic warming, 'the long-term trend over the next several thousand years is toward extensive Northern Hemisphere glaciation' (Hays et al. 1976).”
From THE MYTH OF THE 1970s GLOBAL COOLING SCIENTIFIC CONSENSUS (2008) · cites this paper as Hays et al. 1976
Hays et al. 1976's forecasts describe only long-term trends because they are linked to orbital variations with periods of 20,000 years and longer; higher-frequency climatic oscillations are not predicted.
“Second, they describe only the long-term trends, because they are linked to orbital variations with periods of 20,000 years and longer. Climatic oscillations at higher frequencies are not predicted (Hays et al. 1976).”
From THE MYTH OF THE 1970s GLOBAL COOLING SCIENTIFIC CONSENSUS (2008) · cites this paper as Hays et al. 1976
Hays et al. 1976's forecasts apply only to the natural component of future climatic trends, not to anthropogenic effects such as burning fossil fuels.
“Such forecasts must be qualified in two ways: First, they apply only to the natural component of future climatic trends-and not to anthropogenic effects such as those due to the burning of fossil fuels.”
From THE MYTH OF THE 1970s GLOBAL COOLING SCIENTIFIC CONSENSUS (2008) · cites this paper as Hays et al. 1976
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THE MYTH OF THE 1970s GLOBAL COOLING SCIENTIFIC CONSENSUS
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Oxygen isotope fractionation in the CaCO3-DIC-H2O system
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GSSPs, global stratigraphy and correlation
Smith, A. G., Barry, T., Bown, P., Cope, J., Gale, A., Gibbard, P., Gregory, J., Hounslow, M., Kemp, D., Knox, R., et al. (2015) · Geological Society, London, Special Publications · doi:10.1144/sp404.8 · Cited by 63 · see citing works
- Authors
- Hays, J. D., Imbrie, J., & Shackleton, N. J.
- Affiliations
- Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory (US)
- Brown University (US)
- University of Cambridge (GB)
- ORCID
- Imbrie, John
- Venue
- Science
- Published
- 1976-12-10
- Volume
- 194
- Issue
- 4270
- Pages
- 1121-1132
- ISSN
- 0036-8075 (ISSN-L)
- 1095-9203
- OpenAlex
- W2022545034
- Cited by
- 3,781
- References
- 0
- Citations by year
- 2026: 81 · 2025: 93 · 2024: 86 · 2023: 111 · 2022: 116 · 2021: 186 · 2020: 105 · 2019: 130 · 2018: 115 · 2017: 92 · 2016: 95 · 2015: 143 · 2014: 99 · 2013: 99 · 2012: 104
- FWCI
- 50.66
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Science (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Geology and Paleoclimatology Research
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Oceanography › Marine and environmental studies
- Keywords
- Milankovitch cycles, orbital forcing, ice ages, Quaternary climate, ocean floor sediments, eccentricity, obliquity, precession, Northern Hemisphere glaciation, nonlinear climate response
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