Climate sensitivity, sea level and atmospheric carbon dioxide
Open accessAbstract
Cenozoic temperature, sea level and CO 2 covariations provide insights into climate sensitivity to external forcings and sea-level sensitivity to climate change. Climate sensitivity depends on the initial climate state, but potentially can be accurately inferred from precise palaeoclimate data. Pleistocene climate oscillations yield a fast-feedback climate sensitivity of 3±1 ° C for a 4 W m −2 CO 2 forcing if Holocene warming relative to the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) is used as calibration, but the error (uncertainty) is substantial and partly subjective because of poorly defined LGM global temperature and possible human influences in the Holocene. Glacial-to-interglacial climate change leading to the prior (Eemian) interglacial is less ambiguous and implies a sensitivity in the upper part of the above range, i.e. 3–4 ° C for a 4 W m −2 CO 2 forcing. Slow feedbacks, especially change of ice sheet size and atmospheric CO 2 , amplify the total Earth system sensitivity by an amount that depends on the time scale considered. Ice sheet response time is poorly defined, but we show that the slow response and hysteresis in prevailing ice sheet models are exaggerated. We use a global model, simplified to essential processes, to investigate state dependence of climate sensitivity, finding an increased sensitivity towards warmer climates, as low cloud cover is diminished and increased water vapour elevates the tropopause. Burning all fossil fuels, we conclude, would make most of the planet uninhabitable by humans, thus calling into question strategies that emphasize adaptation to climate change.
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Claims the paper makes
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
Over the last ∼50 million years, global average surface temperatures steadily decreased from nearly 30°C during the early Eocene to less than 10°C during the most recent Pleistocene glacial epoch.
“For example, over the last ∼50 million years, global average surface temperatures have steadily decreased from nearly 30°C during the early Eocene (Burke et al. 2018, Hansen et al. 2013) to less than 10°C during the most recent Pleistocene glacial epoch (e.g., Tierney et al. 2020).”
From The History of Ocean Oxygenation (2022) · cites this paper as Hansen et al. 2013
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
The self-check needs the paper’s full text.
Cites
Climate change 2007: the physical science basis
Solomon, S., Qin, D., Manning, M., Marquis, M. C., Averyt, K. B., Tignor, M., Miller, H. L., & Chen, Z. (2007) · Cited by 23,398 · see citing works
Trends, Rhythms, and Aberrations in Global Climate 65 Ma to Present
Zachos, J., Pagani, M., Sloan, L., Thomas, E., & Billups, K. (2001) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1059412 · Cited by 10,458 · see citing works
Change, I. P. O. C. (2007) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/cbo9780511546013 · Cited by 7,742 · see citing works
Climate and atmospheric history of the past 420,000 years from the Vostok ice core, Antarctica
Petit, J., Jouzel, J., Raynaud, D., Barkov, N. I., Barnola, J.-M., Basile‐Doelsch, I., Bender, M. L., Chappellaz, J., Davis, M. E., Delaygue, G., et al. (1999) · Nature · doi:10.1038/20859 · Cited by 6,516 · see citing works
Fairbanks, R. G. (1989) · Nature · doi:10.1038/342637a0 · Cited by 4,593 · see citing works
Hays, J. D., Imbrie, J., & Shackleton, N. J. (1976) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.194.4270.1121 · Cited by 3,781 · see citing works
An early Cenozoic perspective on greenhouse warming and carbon-cycle dynamics
Zachos, J. C., Dickens, G. R., & Zeebe, R. E. (2008) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature06588 · Cited by 3,550 · see citing works
Climate change 2007 - mitigation of climate change
Metz, B., Davidson, O. R., Bösch, P., Dave, R., & Meyer, L. (2007) · Cited by 3,484 · see citing works
Global surface temperature change
Hansen, J., Ruedy, R., Sato, M., & Lo, K. (2010) · Reviews of Geophysics · doi:10.1029/2010rg000345 · Cited by 3,081 · see citing works
Self-citationClimate Change 2022 - Mitigation of Climate Change
Creutzig, F., Roy, J., Devine‐Wright, P., Diaz-Jose, J., Geels, F. W., Grubler, A., Mäızi, N., Masanet, E., Mulugetta, Y., Onyige-Ebeniro, C. D., et al. (2023) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/9781009157926 · Cited by 2,648 · see citing works
Orbital and Millennial Antarctic Climate Variability over the Past 800,000 Years
Jouzel, J., Masson‐Delmotte, V., Cattani, O., Dreyfus, G., Falourd, S., Hoffmann, G., Minster, B., Nouet, J., Barnola, J.-M., Chappellaz, J., et al. (2007) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1141038 · Cited by 2,592 · see citing works
Mayewski, P. A., Rohling, E. J., Stager, J. C., Karlén, W., Maasch, K. A., Meeker, L. D., Meyerson, E. A., Gasse, F., van Kreveld, S., Holmgren, K., et al. (2004) · Quaternary Research · doi:10.1016/j.yqres.2004.07.001 · Cited by 2,579 · see citing works
High-resolution carbon dioxide concentration record 650,000–800,000 years before present
Lüthi, D., Floch, M. L., Bereiter, B., Blunier, T., Barnola, J.-M., Siegenthaler, U., Raynaud, D., Jouzel, J., Fischer, H., Kawamura, K., et al. (2008) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature06949 · Cited by 2,571 · see citing works
The thermodynamic properties of isotopic substances
Urey, H. C. (1947) · Journal of the Chemical Society (Resumed) · doi:10.1039/jr9470000562 · Cited by 2,544 · see citing works
Radiative forcing and climate response
Hansen, J., Sato, M., & Ruedy, R. (1997) · Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres · doi:10.1029/96jd03436 · Cited by 2,241 · see citing works
Self-citationSea-level and deep water temperature changes derived from benthic foraminifera isotopic records
Waelbroeck, C., Labeyrie, L. D., Michel, E., Duplessy, J., McManus, J. F., Lambeck, K., Balbon, E., & Labracherie, M. (2002) · Quaternary Science Reviews · doi:10.1016/s0277-3791(01)00101-9 · Cited by 2,215 · see citing works
Climate Impacts on Agriculture: Implications for Crop Production
Hatfield, J. L., Boote, K. J., Kimball, B. A., Ziska, L. H., Izaurralde, R. C., Ort, D., Thomson, A. M., & Wolfe, D. W. (2011) · Agronomy Journal · doi:10.2134/agronj2010.0303 · Cited by 1,660 · see citing works
The Anthropogenic Greenhouse Era Began Thousands of Years Ago
Ruddiman, W. F. (2003) · Climatic Change · doi:10.1023/b:clim.0000004577.17928.fa · Cited by 1,658 · see citing works
Emiliani, C. (1955) · The Journal of Geology · doi:10.1086/626295 · Cited by 1,629 · see citing works
The snowball Earth hypothesis: testing the limits of global change
Hoffman, P. F., & Schrag, D. P. (2002) · Terra Nova · doi:10.1046/j.1365-3121.2002.00408.x · Cited by 1,585 · see citing works
Hansen, J. E., Sato, M., Ruedy, R. A., Nazarenko, L., Lacis, A. A., Schmidt, G. A., Russell, G. L., Aleinov, I., Bauer, M., Bauer, S. E., et al. (2005) · Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres · doi:10.1029/2005jd005776 · Cited by 1,494 · see citing works
Self-citationSurface air temperature and its changes over the past 150 years
Jones, P. D., New, M. G., Parker, D. E., Martin, S., & Rigor, I. G. (1999) · Reviews of Geophysics · doi:10.1029/1999rg900002 · Cited by 1,487 · see citing works
The effect of solar radiation variations on the climate of the Earth
BUDYKO, M. I. (1969) · Tellus · doi:10.1111/j.2153-3490.1969.tb00466.x · Cited by 1,436 · see citing works
Dickens, G. R., O’Neil, J. R., Rea, D. K., & Owen, R. M. (1995) · Paleoceanography · doi:10.1029/95pa02087 · Cited by 1,435 · see citing works
Kennett, J. P., & Stott, L. (1991) · Nature · doi:10.1038/353225a0 · Cited by 1,379 · see citing works
Kennett, J. P. (1977) · Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres · doi:10.1029/jc082i027p03843 · Cited by 1,326 · see citing works
Target Atmospheric CO: Where Should Humanity Aim?
Hansen, J., Sato, M., Kharecha, P., Beerling, D. J., Berner, R., Masson‐Delmotte, V., Pagani, M., Raymo, M. E., Royer, D. L., & Zachos, J. C. (2008) · The Open Atmospheric Science Journal · doi:10.2174/1874282300802010217 · Cited by 1,294 · see citing works
Self-citationAn adaptability limit to climate change due to heat stress
Sherwood, S. C., & Huber, M. (2010) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.0913352107 · Cited by 1,236 · see citing works
Acceleration of the contribution of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets to sea level rise
Rignot, E. J., Velicogna, I., van den Broeke, M. R., Monaghan, A. J., & Lenaerts, J. T. M. (2011) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2011gl046583 · Cited by 1,154 · see citing works
Climate sensitivity: Analysis of feedback mechanisms
Hansen, J. E., Lacis, A. A., Rind, D. H., Russell, G. L., Stone, P., FUNG, I. Y., Ruedy, R. A., & Lerner, J. A. (1984) · Geophysical monograph · doi:10.1029/gm029p0130 · Cited by 1,139 · see citing works
Self-citationCenozoic Deep-Sea Temperatures and Global Ice Volumes from Mg/Ca in Benthic Foraminiferal Calcite
Lear, C. H., Elderfield, H., & Wilson, P. A. (2000) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.287.5451.269 · Cited by 1,135 · see citing works
Orbital and millennial-scale features of atmospheric CH4 over the past 800,000 years
Loulergue, L., Schilt, A., Spahni, R., Masson‐Delmotte, V., Blunier, T., Lemieux-Dudon, B., Barnola, J.-M., Raynaud, D., Stocker, T. F., & Chappellaz, J. (2008) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature06950 · Cited by 1,072 · see citing works
Global warming in the twenty-first century: An alternative scenario
Hansen, J. E., Sato, M., Ruedy, R. A., Lacis, A. A., & Oinas, V. (2000) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.170278997 · Cited by 1,056 · see citing works
Self-citationLacis, A. A., & Oinas, V. (1991) · Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres · doi:10.1029/90jd01945 · Cited by 1,051 · see citing works
The effect of solar radiation variations on the climate of the Earth
Budyko, M. I. (1969) · Tellus A Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography · doi:10.3402/tellusa.v21i5.10109 · Cited by 1,039 · see citing works
Peltier, W. R., & Fairbanks, R. G. (2006) · Quaternary Science Reviews · doi:10.1016/j.quascirev.2006.04.010 · Cited by 1,036 · see citing works
Basic principles of thermal dosimetry and thermal thresholds for tissue damage from hyperthermia
Dewhirst, M. W., Viglianti, B. L., Lora‐Michiels, M., Hanson, M., & Hoopes, P. J. (2003) · International Journal of Hyperthermia · doi:10.1080/0265673031000119006 · Cited by 1,014 · see citing works
Atmospheric Lifetime of Fossil Fuel Carbon Dioxide
Archer, D. E., Eby, M., Brovkin, V. A., Ridgwell, A. J., Cao, L., Mikolajewicz, U., Caldeira, K., Matsumoto, K., Munhoven, G., Montenegro, Á., et al. (2009) · Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences · doi:10.1146/annurev.earth.031208.100206 · Cited by 965 · see citing works
Target Atmospheric CO2: Where Should Humanity Aim
Hansen, J., Sato, M., Kharecha, P. A., Beerling, D. J., Berner, R., Masson‐Delmotte, V., Mark Pagani, I., Raymo, M. E., Royer, D. L., & Zachos, J. C. (2008) · White Rose Research Online (University of Leeds, The University of Sheffield, University of York) · Cited by 904 · see citing works
Self-citation(1992) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/cbo9780511601064 · Cited by 896 · see citing works
Kjellstrom, T., Holmer, I., & Lemke, B. (2009) · Global Health Action · doi:10.3402/gha.v2i0.2047 · Cited by 802 · see citing works
Probabilistic assessment of sea level during the last interglacial stage
Kopp, R. E., Simons, F. J., Mitrovica, J. X., Maloof, A. C., & Oppenheimer, M. (2009) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature08686 · Cited by 773 · see citing works
Modelled atmospheric temperatures and global sea levels over the past million years
Bintanja, R., van de Wal, R. S. W., & Oerlemans, J. (2005) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature03975 · Cited by 758 · see citing works
Ruddiman, W. F., & Kutzbach, J. E. (1989) · Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres · doi:10.1029/jd094id15p18409 · Cited by 733 · see citing works
Runaway and moist greenhouse atmospheres and the evolution of Earth and Venus
Kasting, J. F. (1988) · Icarus · doi:10.1016/0019-1035(88)90116-9 · Cited by 709 · see citing works
Late Proterozoic low-latitude global glaciation: the snowball Earth
Kirschvink, J. L. (1992) · CaltechAUTHORS (California Institute of Technology) · Cited by 680 · see citing works
Ramstein, G., Fluteau, F., Besse, J., & Joussaume, S. (1997) · Nature · doi:10.1038/386788a0 · Cited by 644 · see citing works
Fate of fossil fuel CO<sub>2</sub> in geologic time
Archer, D. (2005) · Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans · doi:10.1029/2004jc002625 · Cited by 620 · see citing works
Convergent Cenozoic CO2 history
Beerling, D. J., & Royer, D. L. (2011) · Nature Geoscience · doi:10.1038/ngeo1186 · Cited by 605 · see citing works
Timing and Climatic Consequences of the Opening of Drake Passage
Scher, H. D., & Martin, E. E. (2006) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1120044 · Cited by 596 · see citing works
High Earth-system climate sensitivity determined from Pliocene carbon dioxide concentrations
Mark Pagani, I., Liu, Z., LaRiviere, J. P., & Ravelo, A. C. (2009) · Nature Geoscience · doi:10.1038/ngeo724 · Cited by 596 · see citing works
Earth's energy imbalance and implications
Hansen, J. E., Sato, M., Kharecha, P. A., & von Schuckmann, K. (2011) · Atmospheric chemistry and physics · doi:10.5194/acp-11-13421-2011 · Cited by 589 · see citing works
Self-citationAstronomical pacing of late Palaeocene to early Eocene global warming events
Lourens, L. J., Sluijs, A., Kroon, D., Zachos, J. C., Thomas, E., Röhl, U., Bowles, J. A., & Raffi, I. (2005) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature03814 · Cited by 587 · see citing works
Antarctic temperature and global sea level closely coupled over the past five glacial cycles
Rohling, E. J., Grant, K., Bolshaw, M., Roberts, A. P., Siddall, M. E., Hemleben, C., & Kučera, M. (2009) · Nature Geoscience · doi:10.1038/ngeo557 · Cited by 540 · see citing works
Keigwin, L. D. (1982) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.217.4557.350 · Cited by 513 · see citing works
Rapid sea-level fall and deep-ocean temperature change since the last interglacial period
Cutler, K., Edwards, R. L., Taylor, F. W., Cheng, H., Adkins, J. F., Gallup, C. D., Cutler, P. M., Burr, G. S., & Bloom, A. L. (2003) · Earth and Planetary Science Letters · doi:10.1016/s0012-821x(02)01107-x · Cited by 494 · see citing works
Paleoclimatic Evidence for Future Ice-Sheet Instability and Rapid Sea-Level Rise
Overpeck, J. T., Otto‐Bliesner, B. L., Miller, G. H., Muhs, D. R., Alley, R. B., & Kiehl, J. T. (2006) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1115159 · Cited by 472 · see citing works
Atmospheric Methane and Nitrous Oxide of the Late Pleistocene from Antarctic Ice Cores
Spahni, R., Chappellaz, J., Stocker, T. F., Loulergue, L., Hausammann, G., Kawamura, K., Flückiger, J., Schwander, J., Raynaud, D., Masson‐Delmotte, V., et al. (2005) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1120132 · Cited by 471 · see citing works
Venus Was Wet: A Measurement of the Ratio of Deuterium to Hydrogen
Donahue, T. M., Hoffman, J. H., Hodges, R. R., & Watson, A. J. (1982) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.216.4546.630 · Cited by 446 · see citing works
Climate change and trace gases
Hansen, J. E., Sato, M., Kharecha, P. A., Russell, G. L., Lea, D. W., & Siddall, M. E. (2007) · Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A Mathematical Physical and Engineering Sciences · doi:10.1098/rsta.2007.2052 · Cited by 437 · see citing works
Self-citationHigh rates of sea-level rise during the last interglacial period
Rohling, E. J., Grant, K., Hemleben, C., Siddall, M. E., Hoogakker, B. A. A., Bolshaw, M., & Kučera, M. (2007) · Nature Geoscience · doi:10.1038/ngeo.2007.28 · Cited by 437 · see citing works
The early Eocene equable climate problem revisited
Huber, M. S., & Caballero, R. (2011) · Climate of the past · doi:10.5194/cp-7-603-2011 · Cited by 404 · see citing works
Jaffrés, J. B. D., Shields, G. A., & Wallmann, K. (2007) · Earth-Science Reviews · doi:10.1016/j.earscirev.2007.04.002 · Cited by 398 · see citing works
A palaeogeographic context for Neoproterozoic glaciation
Hoffman, P. F., & Li, Z. (2009) · Palaeogeography Palaeoclimatology Palaeoecology · doi:10.1016/j.palaeo.2009.03.013 · Cited by 390 · see citing works
Making sense of palaeoclimate sensitivity
PALAEOSENS Project Members (2012) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature11574 · Cited by 389 · see citing works
Stable warm tropical climate through the Eocene Epoch
Pearson, P. N., van Dongen, B. E., Nicholas, C. J., Pancost, R. D., Stefan Schouten, A., Singano, J. M., & Wade, B. S. (2007) · Geology · doi:10.1130/g23175a.1 · Cited by 386 · see citing works
Coupled greenhouse warming and deep‐sea acidification in the middle Eocene
Bohaty, S. M., Zachos, J. C., Florindo, F., & Delaney, M. L. (2009) · Paleoceanography · doi:10.1029/2008pa001676 · Cited by 382 · see citing works
Early Palaeogene temperature evolution of the southwest Pacific Ocean
Bijl, P. K., Stefan Schouten, A., Sluijs, A., Reichart, G., Zachos, J. C., & Brinkhuis, H. (2009) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature08399 · Cited by 379 · see citing works
Large-scale features of Pliocene climate: results from the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project
Haywood, A. M., Hill, D. J., Dolan, A. M., Otto‐Bliesner, B. L., Bragg, F. J., Chan, W., Chandler, M. A., Contoux, C., Dowsett, H. J., Jost, A., et al. (2013) · Climate of the past · doi:10.5194/cp-9-191-2013 · Cited by 378 · see citing works
Past extreme warming events linked to massive carbon release from thawing permafrost
DeConto, R. M., Galeotti, S., Mark Pagani, I., Tracy, D., Schaefer, K. M., Zhang, T., Pollard, D., & Beerling, D. J. (2012) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature10929 · Cited by 373 · see citing works
Environmental precursors to rapid light carbon injection at the Palaeocene/Eocene boundary
Sluijs, A., Brinkhuis, H., Stefan Schouten, A., Bohaty, S. M., John, C. M., Zachos, J. C., Reichart, G., Damsté, J. S. S., Crouch, E. M., & Dickens, G. R. (2007) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature06400 · Cited by 372 · see citing works
The ice-core record: climate sensitivity and future greenhouse warming
Lorius, C., Jouzel, J., Raynaud, D., Hansen, J. E., & Treut, H. L. (1990) · Nature · doi:10.1038/347139a0 · Cited by 370 · see citing works
Self-citationZachos, J. C., Stefan Schouten, A., Bohaty, S. M., Quattlebaum, T., Sluijs, A., Brinkhuis, H., Gibbs, S. J., & Bralower, T. J. (2006) · Geology · doi:10.1130/g22522.1 · Cited by 352 · see citing works
A coupled atmosphere‐ocean model for transient climate change studies
Russell, G. L., Miller, J. R., & Rind, D. H. (1995) · ATMOSPHERE-OCEAN · doi:10.1080/07055900.1995.9649550 · Cited by 342 · see citing works
Self-citationPierrehumbert, R. T., Abbot, D. S., Aiko Voigt, A., & Koll, D. D. B. (2011) · Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences · doi:10.1146/annurev-earth-040809-152447 · Cited by 330 · see citing works
Scientific reticence and sea level rise
Hansen, J. E. (2007) · CERN Document Server (European Organization for Nuclear Research) · Cited by 324 · see citing works
Self-citationHigh tide of the warm Pliocene: Implications of global sea level for Antarctic deglaciation
Miller, K. G., Wright, J. D., Browning, J. V., Kulpecz, A. A., Kominz, M. A., Naish, T., Cramer, B., Rosenthal, Y., Peltier, W. R., & Sosdian, S. (2012) · Geology · doi:10.1130/g32869.1 · Cited by 306 · see citing works
Early Paleogene temperature history of the Southwest Pacific Ocean: Reconciling proxies and models
Hollis, C. J., Taylor, K. W. R., Handley, L., Pancost, R. D., Huber, M. S., Creech, J., Hines, B. R., Crouch, E. M., Morgans, H. E. G., Crampton, J. S., et al. (2012) · Earth and Planetary Science Letters · doi:10.1016/j.epsl.2012.06.024 · Cited by 278 · see citing works
Earth system sensitivity inferred from Pliocene modelling and data
Lunt, D. J., Haywood, A. M., Schmidt, G. A., Salzmann, U., Valdes, P. J., & Dowsett, H. J. (2009) · Nature Geoscience · doi:10.1038/ngeo706 · Cited by 274 · see citing works
Collapse of polar ice sheets during the stage 11 interglacial
Raymo, M. E., & Mitrovica, J. X. (2012) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature10891 · Cited by 267 · see citing works
Does the Agulhas Current amplify global temperatures during super‐interglacials?
TURNEY, C. S. M., & Jones, R. T. (2010) · Journal of Quaternary Science · doi:10.1002/jqs.1423 · Cited by 263 · see citing works
Scientific reticence and sea level rise
Hansen, J. E. (2007) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/2/2/024002 · Cited by 263 · see citing works
Self-citationEPICA Dome C record of glacial and interglacial intensities
Masson‐Delmotte, V., Stenni, B., Pol, K., Braconnot, P., Cattani, O., Falourd, S., Kageyama, M., Jouzel, J., Landais, A., Minster, B., et al. (2009) · Quaternary Science Reviews · doi:10.1016/j.quascirev.2009.09.030 · Cited by 260 · see citing works
Self-citationLunt, D. J., Jones, T. D., Heinemann, M., Huber, M. S., LeGrande, A. N., Winguth, A., Loptson, C. A., Marotzke, J., Roberts, C. D., Tindall, J. C., et al. (2012) · Climate of the past · doi:10.5194/cp-8-1717-2012 · Cited by 259 · see citing works
The PRISM3D paleoenvironmental reconstruction
Dowsett, H. J., Robinson, M. M., Haywood, A. M., Salzmann, U., Hill, D. J., Sohl, L. E., Chandler, M., Williams, M., Foley, K. M., & Stoll, D. K. (2010) · Stratigraphy · doi:10.29041/strat.07.2.03 · Cited by 253 · see citing works
Departures from eustasy in Pliocene sea-level records
Raymo, M. E., Mitrovica, J. X., O’Leary, M., DeConto, R. M., & Hearty, P. J. (2011) · Nature Geoscience · doi:10.1038/ngeo1118 · Cited by 248 · see citing works
Our Sun. III. Present and Future
Sackmann, I. ‐., Boothroyd, A. I., & Kraemer, K. E. (1993) · The Astrophysical Journal · doi:10.1086/173407 · Cited by 245 · see citing works
Climate Sensitivity Estimated from Temperature Reconstructions of the Last Glacial Maximum
Schmittner, A., Urban, N. M., Shakun, J. D., Mahowald, N. M., Clark, P. U., Bartlein, P. J., Mix, A. C., & Rosell‐Melé, A. (2011) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1203513 · Cited by 244 · see citing works
Lunt, D. J., Valdes, P. J., Haywood, A. M., & Rutt, I. C. (2007) · Climate Dynamics · doi:10.1007/s00382-007-0265-6 · Cited by 236 · see citing works
UV Dosage Levels in Summer: Increased Risk of Ozone Loss from Convectively Injected Water Vapor
Anderson, J. G., Wilmouth, D. M., Smith, J. B., & Sayres, D. S. (2012) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1222978 · Cited by 235 · see citing works
The geological water cycle and the evolution of marine δ 18 O values
Wallmann, K. (2001) · Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta · doi:10.1016/s0016-7037(01)00603-2 · Cited by 213 · see citing works
Zwally, H. J., Li, J., Brenner, A. C., Beckley, M., Cornejo, H. G., DiMarzio, J., Giovinetto, M. B., Neumann, T. A., Robbins, J., Saba, J. L., et al. (2011) · Journal of Glaciology · doi:10.3189/002214311795306682 · Cited by 211 · see citing works
Haywood, A. M., Dowsett, H. J., Otto‐Bliesner, B. L., Chandler, M. A., Dolan, A. M., Hill, D. J., Lunt, D. J., Robinson, M. M., Rosenbloom, N. A., Salzmann, U., et al. (2010) · Geoscientific model development · doi:10.5194/gmd-3-227-2010 · Cited by 209 · see citing works
Tropical sea temperatures in the high-latitude South Pacific during the Eocene
Hollis, C. J., Handley, L., Crouch, E. M., Morgans, H. E. G., Baker, J. A., Creech, J., Collins, K. S., Gibbs, S. J., Huber, M. S., Stefan Schouten, A., et al. (2009) · Geology · doi:10.1130/g25200a.1 · Cited by 208 · see citing works
A slippery slope: How much global warming constitutes ?dangerous anthropogenic interference??
Hansen, J. E. (2005) · Climatic Change · doi:10.1007/s10584-005-4135-0 · Cited by 207 · see citing works
Self-citationHysteresis in Cenozoic Antarctic ice-sheet variations
Pollard, D., & DeConto, R. M. (2005) · Global and Planetary Change · doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2004.09.011 · Cited by 206 · see citing works
The role of ocean thermal expansion in Last Interglacial sea level rise
McKay, N. P., Overpeck, J. T., & Otto‐Bliesner, B. L. (2011) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2011gl048280 · Cited by 204 · see citing works
de Boer, B., van de Wal, R. S. W., Bintanja, R., Lourens, L. J., & Tuenter, E. (2010) · Annals of Glaciology · doi:10.3189/172756410791392736 · Cited by 197 · see citing works
Köhler, P., Bintanja, R., Fischer, H., Joos, F., Knutti, R., Lohmann, G., & Masson‐Delmotte, V. (2009) · Quaternary Science Reviews · doi:10.1016/j.quascirev.2009.09.026 · Cited by 192 · see citing works
Lower satellite-gravimetry estimates of Antarctic sea-level contribution
King, M. A., Bingham, R. J., Moore, P., Whitehouse, P. L., Bentley, M. J., & Milne, G. A. (2012) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature11621 · Cited by 192 · see citing works
Equatorial convergence of India and early Cenozoic climate trends
Kent, D. V., & Giovanni Muttoni, A. (2008) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.0805382105 · Cited by 185 · see citing works
Global climate change and North American mammalian evolution
Alroy, J., Koch, P. L., & Zachos, J. C. (2000) · Paleobiology · doi:10.1666/0094-8373(2000)26[259:gccana]2.0.co;2 · Cited by 184 · see citing works
Haywood, A. M., Dowsett, H. J., Robinson, M. M., Stoll, D. K., Dolan, A. M., Lunt, D. J., Otto‐Bliesner, B. L., & Chandler, M. A. (2011) · Geoscientific model development · doi:10.5194/gmd-4-571-2011 · Cited by 183 · see citing works
Paleoclimate Implications for Human-Made Climate Change
Hansen, J. E., & Sato, M. (2012) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-3-7091-0973-1_2 · Cited by 182 · see citing works
Self-citationMiddle Pliocene paleoenvironmental reconstruction; PRISM2
Dowsett, H. J., Barron, J. A., Poore, R. Z., Thompson, R. S., Cronin, T. M., Ishman, S. E., & Willard, D. A. (1999) · Antarctica A Keystone in a Changing World · doi:10.3133/ofr99535 · Cited by 175 · see citing works
Nürnberg, D., Müller, A., & Schneider, R. R. (2000) · Paleoceanography · doi:10.1029/1999pa000370 · Cited by 174 · see citing works
Dwyer, G. S., & Chandler, M. A. (2008) · Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A Mathematical Physical and Engineering Sciences · doi:10.1098/rsta.2008.0222 · Cited by 173 · see citing works
Warny, S., Askin, R. A., Hannah, M., Mohr, B. A. R., Raine, J. I., Harwood, D. M., Florindo, F., & the SMS Science Team (2009) · Geology · doi:10.1130/g30139a.1 · Cited by 172 · see citing works
How cold was the Last Glacial Maximum?
von Deimling, T. S., Ganopolski, A., Held, H., & Rahmstorf, S. (2006) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2006gl026484 · Cited by 165 · see citing works
The evolution of atmospheric ozone
Kasting, J. F., & Donahue, T. M. (1980) · Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans · doi:10.1029/jc085ic06p03255 · Cited by 165 · see citing works
Milankovitch, M., Benny, B., & Meroz, I. (1998) · Cited by 164 · see citing works
Pliocene three-dimensional global ocean temperature reconstruction
Dowsett, H. J., Robinson, M. M., & Foley, K. M. (2009) · Climate of the past · doi:10.5194/cp-5-769-2009 · Cited by 157 · see citing works
Tyndall, J. (1861) · The London Edinburgh and Dublin Philosophical Magazine and Journal of Science · doi:10.1080/14786446108643138 · Cited by 148 · see citing works
Comparison between Holocene and Marine Isotope Stage-11 sea-level histories
Rohling, E. J., Braun, K., Grant, K., Kučera, M., Roberts, A. P., Siddall, M. E., & Trommer, G. (2010) · Earth and Planetary Science Letters · doi:10.1016/j.epsl.2009.12.054 · Cited by 145 · see citing works
On the causes of mid-Pliocene warmth and polar amplification
Lunt, D. J., Haywood, A. M., Schmidt, G. A., Salzmann, U., Valdes, P. J., Dowsett, H. J., & Loptson, C. A. (2012) · Earth and Planetary Science Letters · doi:10.1016/j.epsl.2011.12.042 · Cited by 142 · see citing works
Reconstruction of a continuous high-resolution CO 2 record over the past 20 million years
van de Wal, R. S. W., de Boer, B., Lourens, L. J., Köhler, P., & Bintanja, R. (2011) · Climate of the past · doi:10.5194/cp-7-1459-2011 · Cited by 141 · see citing works
John, C. M., Karner, G. D., Browning, E., Leckie, R. M., Mateo, Z. R. P., Carson, B. E., & Lowery, C. M. (2011) · Earth and Planetary Science Letters · doi:10.1016/j.epsl.2011.02.013 · Cited by 134 · see citing works
A model for orbital pacing of methane hydrate destabilization during the Palaeogene
Lunt, D. J., Ridgwell, A. J., Sluijs, A., Zachos, J. C., Hunter, S. J., & Haywood, A. M. (2011) · Nature Geoscience · doi:10.1038/ngeo1266 · Cited by 129 · see citing works
Goldblatt, C., & Watson, A. J. (2012) · Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A Mathematical Physical and Engineering Sciences · doi:10.1098/rsta.2012.0004 · Cited by 129 · see citing works
The Zonally Averaged Circulation of the Middle Atmosphere
Schoeberl, M. R., & Strobel, D. F. (1978) · Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences · doi:10.1175/1520-0469(1978)035 · Cited by 128 · see citing works
Present-day sea-level change: A review
Nerem, R. S., Leuliette, E. W., & Cazenave, A. (2006) · Comptes Rendus Géoscience · doi:10.1016/j.crte.2006.09.001 · Cited by 128 · see citing works
Enhanced chemistry-climate feedbacks in past greenhouse worlds
Beerling, D. J., Fox, A., Stevenson, D. S., & Valdes, P. J. (2011) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1102409108 · Cited by 122 · see citing works
Hydrologic cycling over Antarctica during the middle Miocene warming
Feakins, S. J., Warny, S., & Lee, J. (2012) · Nature Geoscience · doi:10.1038/ngeo1498 · Cited by 120 · see citing works
Hewitt, C. D., & Mitchell, J. F. B. (1997) · Climate Dynamics · doi:10.1007/s003820050199 · Cited by 114 · see citing works
Climate feedbacks under a very broad range of forcing
Colman, R. A., & McAvaney, B. J. (2009) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2008gl036268 · Cited by 103 · see citing works
Lunt, D. J., Valdes, P. J., Jones, T. D., Ridgwell, A. J., Haywood, A. M., Schmidt, D. N., Marsh, R., & Maslin, M. A. (2010) · Geology · doi:10.1130/g31184.1 · Cited by 99 · see citing works
Geobiological constraints on Earth system sensitivity to CO2 during the Cretaceous and Cenozoic
Royer, D. L., Mark Pagani, I., & Beerling, D. J. (2012) · Geobiology · doi:10.1111/j.1472-4669.2012.00320.x · Cited by 97 · see citing works
Transient dwarfism of soil fauna during the Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum
Smith, J. J., Hasiotis, S. T., Kraus, M. J., & Woody, D. T. (2009) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.0909674106 · Cited by 85 · see citing works
A Palaeogene perspective on climate sensitivity and methane hydrate instability
Jones, T. D., Ridgwell, A. J., Lunt, D. J., Maslin, M. A., Schmidt, D. N., & Valdes, P. J. (2010) · Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A Mathematical Physical and Engineering Sciences · doi:10.1098/rsta.2010.0053 · Cited by 83 · see citing works
Global Energy AssessmentPreprint
Global Energy Assessment Writing Team (2012) · RePEc: Research Papers in Economics · Cited by 83 · see citing works
Human Heat Tolerance: An Anthropological Perspective
Hanna, J. M., & Brown, D. E. (1983) · Annual Review of Anthropology · doi:10.1146/annurev.an.12.100183.001355 · Cited by 75 · see citing works
Non-steady state carbonate recycling and implications for the evolution of atmospheric PCO2
Edmond, J. M., & Huh, Y. (2003) · Earth and Planetary Science Letters · doi:10.1016/s0012-821x(03)00510-7 · Cited by 75 · see citing works
Sea level ~400 000 years ago (MIS 11): analogue for present and future sea-level?
Bowen, D. Q. (2010) · Climate of the past · doi:10.5194/cp-6-19-2010 · Cited by 73 · see citing works
Interglacial and future sea level
Clark, P. U., & Huybers, P. (2009) · Nature · doi:10.1038/462856a · Cited by 71 · see citing works
Extremes of human heat tolerance: life at the precipice of thermoregulatory failure
Kenney, W. L., DeGroot, D. W., & Holowatz, L. A. (2004) · Journal of Thermal Biology · doi:10.1016/j.jtherbio.2004.08.017 · Cited by 66 · see citing works
Masson‐Delmotte, V., Braconnot, P., Hoffmann, G., Jouzel, J., Kageyama, M., Landais, A., Lejeune, Q., Risi, C., Sime, L. C., Sjolte, J., et al. (2011) · Climate of the past · doi:10.5194/cp-7-1041-2011 · Cited by 56 · see citing works
Robinson, M. M., Valdes, P. J., Haywood, A. M., Dowsett, H. J., Hill, D. J., & Jones, S. M. (2011) · Palaeogeography Palaeoclimatology Palaeoecology · doi:10.1016/j.palaeo.2011.01.004 · Cited by 55 · see citing works
Annan, K. A. (2002) · Environment Science and Policy for Sustainable Development · doi:10.1080/00139150209605802 · Cited by 54 · see citing works
Transportation Research Board (1997) · Transportation Research Board eBooks · doi:10.17226/11390 · Cited by 50 · see citing works
Ivanov, M., & Böhme, M. (2011) · Geodiversitas · doi:10.5252/g2011n3a2 · Cited by 43 · see citing works
Gasson, E. G. W., Siddall, M. E., Lunt, D. J., Rackham, O. J. L., Lear, C. H., & Pollard, D. (2011) · Reviews of Geophysics · doi:10.1029/2011rg000358 · Cited by 41 · see citing works
Chandler, M. A., Sohl, L. E., Jonas, J., Dowsett, H. J., & Kelley, M. (2013) · Geoscientific model development · doi:10.5194/gmd-6-517-2013 · Cited by 38 · see citing works
Climate change: Heat, health, and longer horizons
McMichael, A. J., & Dear, K. B. G. (2010) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1004894107 · Cited by 35 · see citing works
Fast atmosphere‐ocean model runs with large changes in CO2
Russell, G. L., Lacis, A. A., Rind, D. H., Colose, C. M., & Opstbaum, R. (2013) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1002/2013gl056755 · Cited by 30 · see citing works
Self-citationImbrie, J. Z., & Imbrie, K. P. (1979) · doi:10.1007/978-1-349-04699-7_16 · Cited by 26 · see citing works
Russell, G. L. (2007) · Monthly Weather Review · doi:10.1175/2007mwr2048.1 · Cited by 12 · see citing works
Self-citationHearty, P. J. (2010) · doi:10.5194/cpd-6-295-2010 · Cited by 4 · see citing works
Emanuel (1983) · doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1983)111
Self-citationHigh rates of arc consumption by subduction processes: Some consequences
Lallemand, S. (1995) · Geology · doi:10.1130/0091-7613(1995)023
Structure and composition of the Aleutian island arc and implications for continental crustal growth
Steven Holbrook, W., Lizarralde, D., McGeary, S., Bangs, N., & Diebold, J. (1999) · Geology · doi:10.1130/0091-7613(1999)027
Flagged first, then by citations
2 of the 154 references couldn’t be matched to a known paper.
Cited by
Sorted by citations
Westerhold, T., Marwan, N., Drury, A. J., Liebrand, D., Agnini, C., Anagnostou, E., Barnet, J. S. K., Bohaty, S. M., Vleeschouwer, D. D., Florindo, F., et al. (2020) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.aba6853 · Cited by 2,175 · see citing works
An Assessment of Earth's Climate Sensitivity Using Multiple Lines of Evidence
Sherwood, S. C., Webb, M. J., Annan, J. D., Armour, K. C., Forster, P. M., Hargreaves, J. C., Hegerl, G., Klein, S. A., Marvel, K. D., Rohling, E. J., et al. (2020) · Reviews of Geophysics · doi:10.1029/2019rg000678 · Cited by 1,254 · see citing works
How long will it take? Conceptualizing the temporal dynamics of energy transitions
Sovacool, B. K. (2016) · Energy Research & Social Science · doi:10.1016/j.erss.2015.12.020 · Cited by 1,221 · see citing works
Sea-level rise due to polar ice-sheet mass loss during past warm periods
Dutton, A. L., Carlson, A. E., Long, A. J., Milne, G. A., Clark, P. U., DeConto, R. M., Horton, B. P., Rahmstorf, S., & Raymo, M. E. (2015) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.aaa4019 · Cited by 856 · see citing works
Phanerozoic paleotemperatures: The earth’s changing climate during the last 540 million years
Scotese, C. R., Song, H., Mills, B. J. W., & van der Meer, D. G. (2021) · Earth-Science Reviews · doi:10.1016/j.earscirev.2021.103503 · Cited by 818 · see citing works
Past climates inform our future
Tierney, J. E., Poulsen, C. J., Montañez, I. P., Bhattacharya, T., Feng, R., Ford, H. L., Hönisch, B., Inglis, G. N., Petersen, S., Sagoo, N., et al. (2020) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.aay3701 · Cited by 687 · see citing works
Hansen, J. E., Kharecha, P. A., Sato, M., Masson‐Delmotte, V., Ackerman, F., Beerling, D. J., Hearty, P. J., Hoegh‐Guldberg, O., Hsu, S.-L., Parmesan, C., et al. (2013) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0081648 · Cited by 676 · see citing works
Self-citationHansen, J. E., Sato, M., Hearty, P. J., Ruedy, R. A., Kelley, M., Masson‐Delmotte, V., Russell, G. L., Tselioudis, G., Cao, J., Rignot, E. J., et al. (2016) · Atmospheric chemistry and physics · doi:10.5194/acp-16-3761-2016 · Cited by 642 · see citing works
Self-citationPliocene and Eocene provide best analogs for near-future climates
Burke, K. D., Williams, J. W., Chandler, M. A., Haywood, A. M., Lunt, D. J., & Otto-Bliesner, B. L. (2018) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1809600115 · Cited by 624 · see citing works
Ancient orogenic and monsoon-driven assembly of the world’s richest temperate alpine flora
Ding, W., Ree, R. H., Spicer, R. A., & Xing, Y. (2020) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.abb4484 · Cited by 532 · see citing works
Recyclable metal fuels for clean and compact zero-carbon power
Bergthorson, J. M. (2018) · Progress in Energy and Combustion Science · doi:10.1016/j.pecs.2018.05.001 · Cited by 432 · see citing works
Atmospheric CO 2 over the Past 66 Million Years from Marine Archives
Rae, J. W. B., Zhang, Y., Liu, X., Foster, G. L., Stoll, H. M., & Whiteford, R. (2021) · Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences · doi:10.1146/annurev-earth-082420-063026 · Cited by 431 · see citing works
Earth history and the passerine superradiation
Oliveros, C. H., Field, D. J., Ksepka, D. T., Barker, F. K., Aleixo, A. L. P., Andersen, M. J., Alström, P., Benz, B. W., Braun, E. L., Braun, M. J., et al. (2019) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1813206116 · Cited by 395 · see citing works
A new time tree reveals Earth history’s imprint on the evolution of modern birds
Claramunt, S., & Cracraft, J. (2015) · Science Advances · doi:10.1126/sciadv.1501005 · Cited by 383 · see citing works
(IPCC), I. P. O. C. C. (2023) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/9781009157896.003 · Cited by 382 · see citing works
Global warming in the pipeline
Hansen, J. E., Sato, M., Simons, L., Nazarenko, L., Sangha, I., Kharecha, P. A., Zachos, J. C., von Schuckmann, K., Loeb, N. G., Osman, M., et al. (2023) · Oxford Open Climate Change · doi:10.1093/oxfclm/kgad008 · Cited by 377 · see citing works
Self-citationBayesian Total-Evidence Dating Reveals the Recent Crown Radiation of Penguins
Gavryushkina, A., Heath, T. A., Ksepka, D. T., Stadler, T., Welch, D., & Drummond, A. J. (2016) · Systematic Biology · doi:10.1093/sysbio/syw060 · Cited by 372 · see citing works
Evolution of global temperature over the past two million years
Snyder, C. W. (2016) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature19798 · Cited by 350 · see citing works
Beyond equilibrium climate sensitivity
Knutti, R., Rugenstein, M. A. A., & Hegerl, G. C. (2017) · Nature Geoscience · doi:10.1038/ngeo3017 · Cited by 344 · see citing works
The hysteresis of the Antarctic Ice Sheet
Garbe, J., Albrecht, T., Levermann, A., Donges, J. F., & Winkelmann, R. (2020) · Nature · doi:10.1038/s41586-020-2727-5 · Cited by 337 · see citing works
A 2-million-year-old ecosystem in Greenland uncovered by environmental DNA
Kjær, K. H., Pedersen, M. W., Sanctis, B. D., Cahsan, B. D., Korneliussen, T. S., Michelsen, C., Sand, K. K. S., Jelavić, S., Ruter, A., Schmidt, A. M. A., et al. (2022) · Nature · doi:10.1038/s41586-022-05453-y · Cited by 337 · see citing works
A scientific critique of the two-degree climate change target
Knutti, R., Rogelj, J., Sedláčék, J., & Fischer, E. M. (2015) · Nature Geoscience · doi:10.1038/ngeo2595 · Cited by 336 · see citing works
Protein sequences bound to mineral surfaces persist into deep time
Demarchi, B., Hall, S., Roncal-Herrero, T., Freeman, C. L., Woolley, J., Crisp, M. K., Wilson, J., Fotakis, A., Fischer, R., Kessler, B. M., et al. (2016) · eLife · doi:10.7554/elife.17092 · Cited by 279 · see citing works
A 485-million-year history of Earth’s surface temperature
Judd, E. J., Tierney, J. E., Lunt, D. J., Montañez, I. P., Huber, B. T., Wing, S. L., & Valdes, P. J. (2024) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.adk3705 · Cited by 277 · see citing works
Palaeoclimate constraints on the impact of 2 °C anthropogenic warming and beyond
Fischer, H., Meißner, K. J., Mix, A. C., Abram, N. J., Austermann, J., Brovkin, V. A., Capron, É., Colombaroli, D., Daniau, A., Dyez, K. A., et al. (2018) · Nature Geoscience · doi:10.1038/s41561-018-0146-0 · Cited by 276 · see citing works
Young people's burden: requirement of negative CO <sub>2</sub> emissions
Hansen, J., Sato, M., Kharecha, P., von Schuckmann, K., Beerling, D. J., Cao, J., Marcott, S., Masson-Delmotte, V., Prather, M. J., Rohling, E. J., et al. (2017) · Earth System Dynamics · doi:10.5194/esd-8-577-2017 · Cited by 266 · see citing works
Self-citationAdaptation and conservation insights from the koala genome
Johnson, R. N., O’Meally, D., Chen, Z., Etherington, G., Ho, S. Y. W., Nash, W. J., Grueber, C. E., Cheng, Y., Whittington, C. M., Dennison, S., et al. (2018) · Nature Genetics · doi:10.1038/s41588-018-0153-5 · Cited by 253 · see citing works
New constraints on atmospheric CO2 concentration for the Phanerozoic
Franks, P. J., Royer, D. L., Beerling, D. J., de Water, P. K. V., Cantrill, D. J., Barbour, M. M., & Berry, J. A. (2014) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1002/2014gl060457 · Cited by 246 · see citing works
Kuzyakov, Y. V., Horwáth, W. R., Dorodnikov, M., & Blagodatskaya, E. V. (2018) · Soil Biology and Biochemistry · doi:10.1016/j.soilbio.2018.10.005 · Cited by 244 · see citing works
Toward a Cenozoic history of atmospheric CO 2
Hönisch, B., Royer, D. L., Breecker, D. O., Polissar, P. J., Bowen, G. J., Henehan, M. J., Cui, Y., Steinthorsdottir, M., McElwain, J. C., Kohn, M. J., et al. (2023) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.adi5177 · Cited by 239 · see citing works
Climate change, human health, and epidemiological transition
Barrett, B. P., Charles, J., & Temte, J. L. (2014) · Preventive Medicine · doi:10.1016/j.ypmed.2014.11.013 · Cited by 220 · see citing works
Macroecology and macroevolution of the latitudinal diversity gradient in ants
Economo, E. P., Narula, N., Friedman, N. R., Weiser, M. D., & Guénard, B. (2018) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/s41467-018-04218-4 · Cited by 216 · see citing works
An Unbiased Molecular Approach Using 3′-UTRs Resolves the Avian Family-Level Tree of Life
Kuhl, H., Frankl‐Vilches, C., Bakker, A., Mayr, G., Nikolaus, G., Boerno, S. T., Klages, S., Timmermann, B., & Gahr, M. L. (2020) · Molecular Biology and Evolution · doi:10.1093/molbev/msaa191 · Cited by 210 · see citing works
Inglis, G. N., Bragg, F. J., Burls, N., Cramwinckel, M. J., Evans, D., Foster, G. L., Huber, M. S., Lunt, D. J., Siler, N., Steinig, S., et al. (2020) · Climate of the past · doi:10.5194/cp-16-1953-2020 · Cited by 210 · see citing works
Macroevolutionary dynamics in the early diversification of Asteraceae
Panero, J. L., & Crozier, B. S. (2016) · Molecular Phylogenetics and Evolution · doi:10.1016/j.ympev.2016.03.007 · Cited by 209 · see citing works
Yang, S., Yang, D., Shi, W., Deng, C., Chen, C., & Feng, S. (2022) · Environmental Science and Pollution Research · doi:10.1007/s11356-022-19764-0 · Cited by 195 · see citing works
Public opinion on climate change: Is there an economy–environment tradeoff?
Mildenberger, M., & Leiserowitz, A. (2017) · Environmental Politics · doi:10.1080/09644016.2017.1322275 · Cited by 193 · see citing works
Nonlinear climate sensitivity and its implications for future greenhouse warming
Friedrich, T., Timmermann, A., Tigchelaar, M., Timm, O. E., & Ganopolski, A. (2016) · Science Advances · doi:10.1126/sciadv.1501923 · Cited by 183 · see citing works
Mills, B. J. W., Krause, A. J., Scotese, C. R., Hill, D. J., Shields, G., & Lenton, T. M. (2018) · Gondwana Research · doi:10.1016/j.gr.2018.12.001 · Cited by 182 · see citing works
Cracking the Code of Biodiversity Responses to Past Climate Change
Nogués‐Bravo, D., Rodríguez‐Sánchez, F., Orsini, L., de Boer, E. J., Jansson, R., Morlon, H., Fordham, D. A., & Jackson, S. T. (2018) · Trends in Ecology & Evolution · doi:10.1016/j.tree.2018.07.005 · Cited by 180 · see citing works
Simulating Miocene Warmth: Insights From an Opportunistic Multi‐Model Ensemble (MioMIP1)
Burls, N., Bradshaw, C. P., Boer, A. M. D., Herold, N., Huber, M. S., Pound, M. J., Yannick Donnadieu, A., Farnsworth, A., Frigola, A., Gasson, E. G. W., et al. (2021) · Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology · doi:10.1029/2020pa004054 · Cited by 178 · see citing works
Palaeogeographic controls on climate and proxy interpretation
Lunt, D. J., Farnsworth, A., Loptson, C. A., Foster, G. L., MARKWICK, P. J., O’Brien, C. L., Pancost, R. D., Robinson, S. A., & Wrobel, N. E. (2016) · Climate of the past · doi:10.5194/cp-12-1181-2016 · Cited by 176 · see citing works
Point of Departure and Key Concepts
(IPCC), I. P. O. C. C. (2023) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/9781009325844.003 · Cited by 171 · see citing works
Lunt, D. J., Huber, M. S., Anagnostou, E., Baatsen, M., Caballero, R., Deconto, R. M., Dijkstra, H. A., Yannick Donnadieu, A., Evans, D., Feng, R., et al. (2017) · Geoscientific model development · doi:10.5194/gmd-10-889-2017 · Cited by 169 · see citing works
Deep ocean temperatures through time
Valdes, P. J., Scotese, C. R., & Lunt, D. J. (2021) · Climate of the past · doi:10.5194/cp-17-1483-2021 · Cited by 164 · see citing works
Molecular fossils from phytoplankton reveal secular P co 2 trend over the Phanerozoic
Witkowski, C., Weijers, J. W. H., Blais, B. S., Stefan Schouten, A., & Damsté, J. S. S. (2018) · Science Advances · doi:10.1126/sciadv.aat4556 · Cited by 161 · see citing works
Climate Sensitivity on Geological Timescales Controlled by Nonlinear Feedbacks and Ocean Circulation
Farnsworth, A., Lunt, D. J., O’Brien, C. L., Foster, G. L., Inglis, G. N., MARKWICK, P. J., Pancost, R. D., & Robinson, S. A. (2019) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2019gl083574 · Cited by 160 · see citing works
How Well Do We Understand the Land‐Ocean‐Atmosphere Carbon Cycle?
Crisp, D., Dolman, A. J., Tanhua, T., McKinley, G. A., Hauck, J., Bastos, A., Sitch, S. A., Eggleston, S., & Aich, V. (2022) · Reviews of Geophysics · doi:10.1029/2021rg000736 · Cited by 156 · see citing works
Global and regional temperature change over the past 4.5 million years
Clark, P. U., Shakun, J. D., Rosenthal, Y., Köhler, P., & Bartlein, P. J. (2024) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.adi1908 · Cited by 156 · see citing works
The enigma of Oligocene climate and global surface temperature evolution
O’Brien, C. L., Huber, M. S., Thomas, E., Mark Pagani, I., Super, J. R., Elder, L. E., & Hull, P. M. (2020) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.2003914117 · Cited by 149 · see citing works
A persistent and dynamic East Greenland Ice Sheet over the past 7.5 million years
Bierman, P. R., Shakun, J. D., Corbett, L. B., Zimmerman, S. H., & Rood, D. H. (2016) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature20147 · Cited by 133 · see citing works
Spatiotemporal Evolution of the Global Species Diversity of Rhododendron
Xia, X., Yang, M.-Q., Li, C., Huang, S.-X., Jin, W., Shen, T., Wang, F., Li, X., Yoichi, W., Zhang, L., et al. (2021) · Molecular Biology and Evolution · doi:10.1093/molbev/msab314 · Cited by 130 · see citing works
Klaus, K. V., & Matzke, N. J. (2019) · Systematic Biology · doi:10.1093/sysbio/syz034 · Cited by 126 · see citing works
van der Meer, D. G., Scotese, C. R., Mills, B. J. W., Sluijs, A., van Saparoea, A. P. H. V. D. B., & van de Weg, R. M. B. (2022) · Gondwana Research · doi:10.1016/j.gr.2022.07.014 · Cited by 123 · see citing works
Enhanced ocean oxygenation during Cenozoic warm periods
Auderset, A., Moretti, S., Taphorn, B., Ebner, P.-R., Kast, E. R., Wang, X. T., Schiebel, R., Sigman, D. M., Haug, G. H., & Martínez‐García, A. (2022) · Nature · doi:10.1038/s41586-022-05017-0 · Cited by 122 · see citing works
Cenozoic evolution of deep ocean temperature from clumped isotope thermometry
Meckler, A. N., Sexton, P. F., Piasecki, A. M., Leutert, T. J., Marquardt, J., Ziegler, M., Agterhuis, T., Lourens, L. J., Rae, J. W. B., Barnet, J., et al. (2022) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.abk0604 · Cited by 120 · see citing works
Rohling, E. J., Hibbert, F., Williams, F. H., Grant, K., Marino, G., Foster, G. L., Hennekam, R., de Lange, G. J., Roberts, A. P., Yu, J., et al. (2017) · Quaternary Science Reviews · doi:10.1016/j.quascirev.2017.09.009 · Cited by 119 · see citing works
CO 2 over the past 5 million years: Continuous simulation and new δ 11 B-based proxy data
Stap, L. B., de Boer, B., Ziegler, M., Bintanja, R., Lourens, L. J., & van de Wal, R. S. W. (2016) · Earth and Planetary Science Letters · doi:10.1016/j.epsl.2016.01.022 · Cited by 112 · see citing works
Reconstructing Climate from Glaciers
Mackintosh, A. N., Anderson, B., & Pierrehumbert, R. T. (2017) · Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences · doi:10.1146/annurev-earth-063016-020643 · Cited by 111 · see citing works
Sovacool, B. K., & Scarpaci, J. L. (2016) · Energy Policy · doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2016.04.045 · Cited by 107 · see citing works
Offshore Freshened Groundwater in Continental Margins
Micallef, A., Person, M. A., Berndt, C., Bertoni, C., Cohen, D., Dugan, B., Evans, R. L., Haroon, A., Hensen, C., Jegen, M., et al. (2020) · Reviews of Geophysics · doi:10.1029/2020rg000706 · Cited by 106 · see citing works
Henehan, M. J., Edgar, K. M., Foster, G. L., Penman, D. E., Hull, P. M., Greenop, R., Anagnostou, E., & Pearson, P. N. (2020) · Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology · doi:10.1029/2019pa003713 · Cited by 104 · see citing works
Hydrological control of river and seawater lithium isotopes
Zhang, F., Dellinger, M., Hilton, R. G., Yu, J., Allen, M. B., Densmore, A. L., Sun, H., & Jin, Z. (2022) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/s41467-022-31076-y · Cited by 102 · see citing works
Warm–cold colonization: response of oaks to uplift of the Himalaya–Hengduan Mountains
Meng, H., Su, T., Gao, X., Li, J., Jiang, X., Sun, H., & Zhou, Z. (2017) · Molecular Ecology · doi:10.1111/mec.14092 · Cited by 99 · see citing works
The Eurasian steppe belt: Status quo, origin and evolutionary history
Hurka, H., Friesen, N. V., Bernhardt, K., Neuffer, B., Смирнов, С. В., Shmakov, A. I., & Blattner, F. R. (2019) · Turczaninowia · doi:10.14258/turczaninowia.22.3.1 · Cited by 98 · see citing works
Comparative Climatology of Terrestrial Planets
Mackwell, S., Simon-miller, A., Harder, J., & Bullock, M. (2013) · University of Arizona Press eBooks · doi:10.2458/azu_uapress_9780816530595 · Cited by 98 · see citing works
Sun, J., Gong, Z., Tian, Z., Jia, Y., & Windley, B. F. (2015) · Palaeogeography Palaeoclimatology Palaeoecology · doi:10.1016/j.palaeo.2015.01.001 · Cited by 97 · see citing works
Climate Evolution Through the Onset and Intensification of Northern Hemisphere Glaciation
McClymont, E. L., Ho, S. L., Ford, H. L., Bailey, I., Berke, M. A., Bolton, C. T., Schepper, S. D., Grant, G., Groeneveld, J., Inglis, G. N., et al. (2023) · Reviews of Geophysics · doi:10.1029/2022rg000793 · Cited by 97 · see citing works
The History of Ocean Oxygenation
Reinhard, C. T., & Planavsky, N. J. (2022) · Annual Review of Marine Science · doi:10.1146/annurev-marine-031721-104005 · Cited by 91 · see citing works
Genome-wide analyses reveal drivers of penguin diversification
Vianna, J. A., Fernandes, F. A. N., Frugone, M. J., Figueiró, H. V., Pertierra, L. R., Noll, D., Bi, K., Wang‐Claypool, C. Y., Lowther, A., Parker, P. G., et al. (2020) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.2006659117 · Cited by 90 · see citing works
Micallef, A., Person, M. A., Haroon, A., Weymer, B. A., Jegen, M., Schwalenberg, K., Faghih, Z., Duan, S., Cohen, D., Mountjoy, J. J., et al. (2020) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/s41467-020-14770-7 · Cited by 89 · see citing works
Contribution of the coupled atmosphere–ocean–sea ice–vegetation model COSMOS to the PlioMIP2
Stepanek, C., Samakinwa, E., Knorr, G., & Lohmann, G. (2020) · Climate of the past · doi:10.5194/cp-16-2275-2020 · Cited by 87 · see citing works
Rohling, E. J., Foster, G. L., Gernon, T., Grant, K., Heslop, D., Hibbert, F., Roberts, A. P., & Yu, J. (2022) · Reviews of Geophysics · doi:10.1029/2022rg000775 · Cited by 84 · see citing works
Varela, L., Tambusso, P. S., McDonald, H. G., & Fariña, R. A. (2018) · Systematic Biology · doi:10.1093/sysbio/syy058 · Cited by 82 · see citing works
CO2 Reduction Catalyzed by Mercaptopteridine on Glassy Carbon
Xiang, D., Magana, D., & Dyer, R. B. (2014) · Journal of the American Chemical Society · doi:10.1021/ja5081103 · Cited by 80 · see citing works
Huang, X., Xiang, L., Lei, G., Sun, M., Qiu, M., Storozum, M. J., Huang, C., Munkhbayar, C., Demberel, O., Zhang, J. P., et al. (2021) · Quaternary Science Reviews · doi:10.1016/j.quascirev.2021.107054 · Cited by 80 · see citing works
Improving the Ginkgo CO2 barometer: Implications for the early Cenozoic atmosphere
Barclay, R. S., & Wing, S. L. (2016) · Earth and Planetary Science Letters · doi:10.1016/j.epsl.2016.01.012 · Cited by 80 · see citing works
Phylogeny, biogeography and diversification of the mining bee family Andrenidae
Bossert, S., Wood, T. J., Patiny, S., Michez, D., Almeida, E. A. B., Minckley, R. L., Packer, L., Neff, J. L., Copeland, R. S., Straka, J., et al. (2021) · Systematic Entomology · doi:10.1111/syen.12530 · Cited by 79 · see citing works
History, mass loss, structure, and dynamic behavior of the Antarctic Ice Sheet
Bell, R. E., & Seroussi, H. L. (2020) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.aaz5489 · Cited by 75 · see citing works
Barrett, B. P., Grabow, M., Middlecamp, C., Mooney, M., Checovich, M. M., Converse, A. K., Gillespie, B., & Yates, J. (2016) · Sustainability · doi:10.3390/su8101040 · Cited by 75 · see citing works
Improving the relevance of paleontology to climate change policy
Kiessling, W., Smith, J. A., & Raja, N. B. (2023) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.2201926119 · Cited by 73 · see citing works
Fission-Track Annealing: From Geologic Observations to Thermal History Modeling
Ketcham, R. A. (2018) · Springer textbooks in earth sciences, geography and environment · doi:10.1007/978-3-319-89421-8_3 · Cited by 73 · see citing works
Ehlers, T. A., Chen, D., Appel, E., Bolch, T., Chen, F., Diekmann, B., Dippold, M. A., Giese, M., Guggenberger, G., Lai, H., et al. (2022) · Earth-Science Reviews · doi:10.1016/j.earscirev.2022.104197 · Cited by 72 · see citing works
Kealy, S., & Beck, R. M. D. (2017) · BMC Evolutionary Biology · doi:10.1186/s12862-017-1090-0 · Cited by 71 · see citing works
Chandan, D., & Peltier, W. R. (2018) · Climate of the past · doi:10.5194/cp-14-825-2018 · Cited by 68 · see citing works
Sun, J., Sheykh, M., Ahmadi, N., Cao, M., Zhang, Z., Tian, S., Sha, J., Jian, Z., Windley, B. F., & Talebian, M. (2020) · Palaeogeography Palaeoclimatology Palaeoecology · doi:10.1016/j.palaeo.2020.110172 · Cited by 68 · see citing works
Climate change, extinction, and Sky Island biogeography in a montane lizard
Wiens, J. J., Camacho, A., Goldberg, A., Ježková, T., Kaplan, M. E., Lambert, S. M., Miller, E. C., Streicher, J. W., & Walls, R. (2019) · Molecular Ecology · doi:10.1111/mec.15073 · Cited by 67 · see citing works
Predicting Thermal Adaptation by Looking Into Populations’ Genomic Past
Cortés, A. J., López-Hernández, F., & Osorio-Rodríguez, D. (2020) · Frontiers in Genetics · doi:10.3389/fgene.2020.564515 · Cited by 66 · see citing works
Bełcik, M., Lenda, M. L., Amano, T., & Skórka, P. (2020) · Scientific Reports · doi:10.1038/s41598-020-76917-2 · Cited by 66 · see citing works
Ancient Demographics Determine the Effectiveness of Genetic Purging in Endangered Lizards
Xie, H., Liang, X., Chen, Z., Li, W.-M., Mi, C., Li, M., Wu, Z., Zhou, X., & Du, W. (2021) · Molecular Biology and Evolution · doi:10.1093/molbev/msab359 · Cited by 66 · see citing works
Clade-specific diversification dynamics of marine diatoms since the Jurassic
Lewitus, É., Bittner, L., Malviya, S., Bowler, C., & Morlon, H. (2018) · Nature Ecology & Evolution · doi:10.1038/s41559-018-0691-3 · Cited by 65 · see citing works
Boschman, L. M., & Condamine, F. L. (2021) · Global and Planetary Change · doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2021.103704 · Cited by 65 · see citing works
Gamisch, A. (2019) · Global Ecology and Biogeography · doi:10.1111/geb.12979 · Cited by 63 · see citing works
Skeie, R. B., Berntsen, T. K., Aldrin, M., Holden, M. T. G., & Myhre, G. (2014) · Earth System Dynamics · doi:10.5194/esd-5-139-2014 · Cited by 63 · see citing works
Comparing Climate Sensitivity, Past and Present
Rohling, E. J., Marino, G., Foster, G. L., Goodwin, P., von der Heydt, A. S., & Köhler, P. (2017) · Annual Review of Marine Science · doi:10.1146/annurev-marine-121916-063242 · Cited by 61 · see citing works
Major loss of coralline algal diversity in response to ocean acidification
Peña, V., Harvey, B. P., Agostini, S., Porzio, L., Milazzo, M., Horta, P. A., Gall, L. L., & Hall-Spencer, J. M. (2021) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/gcb.15757 · Cited by 61 · see citing works
Fossil plant stomata indicate decreasing atmospheric CO 2 prior to the Eocene–Oligocene boundary
Steinthorsdottir, M., Porter, A. S., Holohan, A., Kunzmann, L., Collinson, M. E., & McElwain, J. C. (2016) · Climate of the past · doi:10.5194/cp-12-439-2016 · Cited by 60 · see citing works
Climate Changes and Potential Impacts on Quality of Fruit and Vegetable Crops
Mattos, L. M., Moretti, C. L., Jan, S., Sargent, S. A., Lima, C. E. P., & Fontenelle, M. R. (2014) · Elsevier eBooks · doi:10.1016/b978-0-12-800876-8.00019-9 · Cited by 59 · see citing works
Hirschfeld, M., Dudgeon, C. L., Sheaves, M. J., & Barnett, A. (2021) · Global Ecology and Biogeography · doi:10.1111/geb.13379 · Cited by 58 · see citing works
Mitochondrial introgression and complex biogeographic history of the genus Picea
Ran, J., Shen, T., Liu, W., Wang, P., & Wang, X. (2015) · Molecular Phylogenetics and Evolution · doi:10.1016/j.ympev.2015.07.020 · Cited by 58 · see citing works
- Authors
- Hansen, J., Sato, M., Russell, G., & Kharecha, P.
- Affiliations
- Columbia University (US)
- Goddard Institute for Space Studies (US)
- Corresponding author
- Hansen, James
- Venue
- Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences
- Publisher
- The Royal Society
- Published
- 2013-10-28
- Volume
- 371
- Issue
- 2001
- Pages
- 20120294
- ISSN
- 1364-503X (ISSN-L)
- 1471-2962
- PMC
- PMC3785813
- OpenAlex
- W2143037254
- Cited by
- 660
- References
- 154
- Citations by year
- 2026: 17 · 2025: 57 · 2024: 62 · 2023: 71 · 2022: 74 · 2021: 67 · 2020: 80 · 2019: 58 · 2018: 45 · 2017: 42 · 2016: 43 · 2015: 20 · 2014: 17 · 2013: 7
- FWCI
- 18.90
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- hybrid
- doi.org
- Locations
- Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A Mathematical Physical and Engineering Sciences (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- arXiv (Cornell University) (submittedVersion)
- NASA STI Repository (National Aeronautics and Space Administration) (submittedVersion)
- arXiv (Cornell University)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Geology and Paleoclimatology Research
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate Change and Environmental Impact
- Keywords
- climate sensitivity, atmospheric CO2, Cenozoic climate, Pleistocene climate oscillations, Last Glacial Maximum, Holocene warming, Eemian interglacial, ice sheet response, low cloud cover, water vapor, tropopause, fossil fuel combustion, habitability
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review
