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Cited by 10Political Conflict and GovernanceDefense, Military, and Policy StudiesNatural Resources and Economic Development

The Macroeconomic Costs of Conflict

Open access
Novta, Natalija, Pugacheva, Evgenia·2020·IMF Working Papers
DOI 10.5089/9781513547756.001
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Abstract

Macroeconomic costs of conflict are generally very large, with GDP per capita about 28 percent lower ten years after conflict onset. This is overwhelmingly driven by private consumption, which falls by 25 percent ten years after conflict onset. Conflict is also associated with dramatic declines in official trade, with exports (imports) estimated to be 58 (34) percent lower ten years after conflict onset. The onset of conflict often also induces significant refugee outflows to neighboring non-advanced countries in the short run, and relatively small but very persistent refugee outflows to advanced countries over the long run. Finally, we stress that conflict should be defined in terms of the number of people killed relative to the total population. The traditional definition of conflict—based on the absolute number of deaths—skews the sample toward low-intensity conflicts in large countries, thereby understating the negative effects of conflict from a macroeconomic perspective.

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  • Conflict-affected countries often have a large traditional agricultural sector, whose reduced output as a consequence of violence and insecurity can be devastating to local wellbeing as well as to domestic food security.

    “Moreover, conflict-affected countries often have a large traditional agricultural sector, whose reduced output as a consequence of violence and insecurity can be devastating to local wellbeing (124, 129-131) as well as to domestic food security (132, 133).”

    From Vicious Circles: Violence, Vulnerability, and Climate Change (2021) · cites this paper as [124]

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Authors
Novta, N., & Pugacheva, E.
Affiliations
International Monetary Fund (US)
Venue
IMF Working Papers
Publisher
International Monetary Fund (IMF)
Published
2020-06
Volume
2020
Issue
110
Pages
1
ISSN
1018-5941 (ISSN-L)
DOI
10.5089/9781513547756.001
OpenAlex
W3037336511
Cited by
10
References
27
Citations by year
2026: 2 · 2025: 1 · 2024: 3 · 2023: 2 · 2022: 1 · 2021: 1
FWCI
1.33
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Locations
  • IMF Working Paper (publishedVersion)
  • RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
Topics
  • Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Political Conflict and Governance
  • Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Defense, Military, and Policy Studies
  • Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › General Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Natural Resources and Economic Development
Keywords
GDP per capita, household consumption, trade decline, exports and imports, conflict measurement, conflict intensity, low-intensity conflict, post-conflict recovery

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