A biodiversity target based on species extinctions
Open accessAbstract
A single target comparable to the 2°C climate target may help galvanize biodiversity policy
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Claims the paper makes
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
The current value for the extinction rate is conservatively set at >100 E/MSY.
“We conservatively set the current value for the extinction rate at >100 E/MSY (24–26).”
From Earth beyond six of nine planetary boundaries (2023) · cites this paper as [25]
Table S3 (Additional information; page not given) estimates 334–3336 E/MSY for all described species, which supports a contemporary estimate above 100. But the same table gives a range of 10–5000 E/MSY for all current species, while the Framework reports 33.6 E/MSY for assessed vertebrates over 1500–2019. The paper therefore does not establish >100 E/MSY as a conservative current value without specifying which estimate is being used. (LLM, conf=0.84)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
The self-check needs the paper’s full text.
Cites
Planetary boundaries: Guiding human development on a changing planet
Steffen, W., Richardson, K., Rockström, J., Cornell, S. E., Fetzer, I., Bennett, E. M., Biggs, R., Carpenter, S. R., de Vries, W., de Wit, C. A., et al. (2015) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1259855 · Cited by 12,527 · see citing works
Self-citationIPBES (2019) · Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research) · doi:10.5281/zenodo.6417333 · Cited by 1,811 · see citing works
A mid-term analysis of progress toward international biodiversity targets
Tittensor, D. P., Walpole, M., Hill, S. L. L., Boyce, D. G., Britten, G. L., Burgess, N. D., Butchart, S. H. M., Leadley, P. W., Regan, E. C., Alkemade, R., et al. (2014) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1257484 · Cited by 1,227 · see citing works
Self-citationIpbes (2019) · Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research) · doi:10.5281/zenodo.3831674 · Cited by 939 · see citing works
A Global Deal For Nature: Guiding principles, milestones, and targets
Dinerstein, E., Vynne, C., Sala, E., Joshi, A. R., Fernando, S., Lovejoy, T. E., Mayorga, J., Olson, D., Asner, G. P., Baillie, J. E. M., et al. (2019) · Science Advances · doi:10.1126/sciadv.aaw2869 · Cited by 792 · see citing works
Aiming higher to bend the curve of biodiversity loss
Mace, G. M., Barrett, M., Burgess, N. D., Cornell, S. E., Freeman, R., Grooten, M., & Purvis, A. (2018) · Nature Sustainability · doi:10.1038/s41893-018-0130-0 · Cited by 550 · see citing works
Self-citationMarques, A., Martins, I. S., Kästner, T., Plutzar, C., Theurl, M. C., Eisenmenger, N., Huijbregts, M. A. J., Wood, R. A., Stadler, K., Brückner, M., et al. (2019) · Nature Ecology & Evolution · doi:10.1038/s41559-019-0824-3 · Cited by 524 · see citing works
Protected area targets post-2020
Visconti, P., Butchart, S. H. M., Brooks, T. M., Langhammer, P. F., Marnewick, D., Vergara, S., Yanosky, A., & Watson, J. E. M. (2019) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.aav6886 · Cited by 418 · see citing works
Watson, J. E. M., Venter, O., Lee, J. R., Jones, K. R., Robinson, J. G., Possingham, H. P., & Allan, J. R. (2018) · Nature · doi:10.1038/d41586-018-07183-6 · Cited by 298 · see citing works
IPBES (2018) · BORIS (University Library Bern) · doi:10.48350/185020 · Cited by 223 · see citing works
Change the IUCN Protected Area Categories to Reflect Biodiversity Outcomes
Boitani, L., Cowling, R. M., Dublin, H., et al. (2008) · PLoS Biology · doi:10.1371/journal.pbio.0060066 · Cited by 75 · see citing works
Comparing Extinction Rates: Past, Present, and Future
Proença, V. M., & Pereira, H. M. (2013) · Elsevier eBooks · doi:10.1016/b978-0-12-384719-5.00411-1 · Cited by 38 · see citing works
Flagged first, then by citations
Research works printed but not linked: 1
- [19]19. IUCN (2019). The IUCN Red List of Threatened Species. http://www.iucnredlist.org. Cambridge, UK, IUCN.
Cited by
Sorted by citations
Earth beyond six of nine planetary boundaries
Richardson, K., Steffen, W., Lucht, W., Bendtsen, J., Cornell, S. E., Donges, J. F., Drüke, M., Fetzer, I., Bala, G., von Bloh, W., et al. (2023) · Science Advances · doi:10.1126/sciadv.adh2458 · Cited by 3,311 · see citing works
Exploring gaps, biases, and research priorities in the evidence for reptile conservation actions
Speight, O., Morgan, W. H., White, T. B., Sainsbury, K. A., Bouskila, A., Rotem, G., Smith, R. K., Sutherland, W. J., Watson, M. J., & Christie, A. P. (2025) · Conservation Biology · doi:10.1111/cobi.70073 · Cited by 11 · see citing works
- Authors
- Rounsevell, M. D. A., Harfoot, M., Harrison, P. A., Newbold, T., Gregory, R. D., & Mace, G. M.
- Affiliations
- Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (DE)
- UN Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre (GB)
- UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology (GB)
- University College London (GB)
- Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (GB)
- ORCID
- Venue
- Science
- Published
- 2020-06-12
- Volume
- 368
- Issue
- 6496
- Pages
- 1193-1195
- ISSN
- 0036-8075 (ISSN-L)
- 1095-9203
- OpenAlex
- W3034209693
- Cited by
- 173
- References
- 12
- Citations by year
- 2026: 10 · 2025: 21 · 2024: 28 · 2023: 39 · 2022: 27 · 2021: 31 · 2020: 17
- FWCI
- 18.10
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- discovery.ucl.ac.uk
- Locations
- Science (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- NERC Open Research Archive (Natural Environment Research Council) (acceptedVersion)
- UCL Discovery (University College London) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Nature and Landscape Conservation › Ecology and Vegetation Dynamics Studies
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Conservation, Biodiversity, and Resource Management
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law › Environmental Conservation and Management
- Keywords
- biodiversity targets, species extinction, biodiversity policy, climate targets, 2°C target, extinction risk, conservation policy
- MeSH terms
- Animals, Conservation of Natural Resources, Biodiversity, Extinction, Biological, Global Warming, Environmental Policy
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review
