Herd immunity by infection is not an option
Abstract
Difficult lessons are learned from a largely uncontrolled COVID-19 epidemic in Manaus, Brazil
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Claims the paper makes
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
Epidemiological studies suggest that herd immunity through natural infection may not have been achieved even in high-infection communities, and that waning immunity plus antigenic variation may allow continued circulation.
“epidemiological studies suggest that, even in communities with high infection rates, herd immunity through natural infection may not have been achieved, and these studies raise the possibility that a combination of waning immunity and viral antigenic variation may allow for continued circulation of the virus11,12.”
From Prospects for durable immune control of SARS-CoV-2 and prevention of reinfection (2021) · cites this paper as [12]
A seroepidemiological study in Manaus suggested the potential for reinfection beyond 6-8 months after infection.
“A recent seroepidemiological study in the Brazilian city of Manaus has also suggested the potential for reinfection beyond 6–8 months after infection11,12,57.”
From Prospects for durable immune control of SARS-CoV-2 and prevention of reinfection (2021) · cites this paper as [12]
In a heavily exposed population in Manaus, seroepidemiological data point to possible reinfection susceptibility by 6-8 months.
“This contrasts with the seroepidemiological evidence for ongoing spread of infection in a highly exposed population in Manaus, which suggests that there may be susceptibility to reinfection after 6–8 months11,12.”
From Prospects for durable immune control of SARS-CoV-2 and prevention of reinfection (2021) · cites this paper as [12]
Cites
SARS-CoV-2-specific T cell immunity in cases of COVID-19 and SARS, and uninfected controls
Le Bert, N., Tan, A. T., Kunasegaran, K., Tham, C. Y. L., Hafezi, M., Chia, A., Chng, M. H. Y., Lin, M., Tan, N., Linster, M., et al. (2020) · Nature · doi:10.1038/s41586-020-2550-z · Cited by 1,887 · see citing works
"Herd Immunity": A Rough Guide
Fine, P. E., Eames, K. T. D., & Heymann, D. (2011) · Clinical Infectious Diseases · doi:10.1093/cid/cir007 · Cited by 1,256 · see citing works
Huang, A. T., Garcia-Carreras, B., Hitchings, M. D. T., Yang, B., Katzelnick, L. C., Rattigan, S. M., Borgert, B. A., Moreno, C. A., Solomon, B. D., Trimmer-Smith, L., et al. (2020) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/s41467-020-18450-4 · Cited by 1,026 · see citing works
Han, E., Tan, M. M. J., Turk, E., Sridhar, D., Leung, G. M., Shibuya, K., Asgari, N., Oh, J., García-Basteiro, A. L., Hanefeld, J., et al. (2020) · The Lancet · doi:10.1016/s0140-6736(20)32007-9 · Cited by 814 · see citing works
Self-citationSeasonal coronavirus protective immunity is short-lasting
Edridge, A. W. D., Kaczorowska, J., Hoste, A. C. R., Bakker, M., Klein, M., Loens, K., Jebbink, M. F., Matser, A., Kinsella, C. M., Rueda, P., et al. (2020) · Nature Medicine · doi:10.1038/s41591-020-1083-1 · Cited by 767 · see citing works
Buss, L. F., Prete, C. A., Abrahim, C. M. M., Mendrone, A., Salomon, T., de Almeida-Neto, C., França, R. F. O., Belotti, M. C., Carvalho, M. P. S. S., Costa, A. G., et al. (2021) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.abe9728 · Cited by 488 · see citing works
Autoimmune and inflammatory diseases following COVID-19
Galeotti, C., & Bayry, J. (2020) · Nature Reviews Rheumatology · doi:10.1038/s41584-020-0448-7 · Cited by 404 · see citing works
Scientific consensus on the COVID-19 pandemic: we need to act now
Alwan, N. A., Burgess, R. A., Ashworth, S., et al. (2020) · The Lancet · doi:10.1016/s0140-6736(20)32153-x · Cited by 270 · see citing works
Diorio, C. J., McNerney, K. O., Lambert, M. P., et al. (2020) · Blood Advances · doi:10.1182/bloodadvances.2020003471 · Cited by 138 · see citing works
Zhu, Y., Yu, D., Han, Y., Yan, H., Chong, H., Ren, L., Wang, J., Li, T., & He, Y. (2020) · Science Advances · doi:10.1126/sciadv.abc9999 · Cited by 66 · see citing works
Long covid: Damage to multiple organs presents in young, low risk patients
Iacobucci, G. (2020) · BMJ · doi:10.1136/bmj.m4470 · Cited by 36 · see citing works
Flagged first, then by citations
Cited by
Sorted by citations
Prospects for durable immune control of SARS-CoV-2 and prevention of reinfection
Cromer, D., Juno, J. A., Khoury, D., Reynaldi, A., Wheatley, A. K., Kent, S. J., & Davenport, M. P. (2021) · Nature Reviews Immunology · doi:10.1038/s41577-021-00550-x · Cited by 265 · see citing works
- Authors
- Sridhar, D., & Gurdasani, D.
- Affiliations
- University of Edinburgh (GB)
- Venue
- Science
- Published
- 2021-01-15
- Volume
- 371
- Issue
- 6526
- Pages
- 230-231
- ISSN
- 0036-8075 (ISSN-L)
- 1095-9203
- OpenAlex
- W3120732682
- Cited by
- 60
- References
- 11
- Citations by year
- 2025: 2 · 2024: 1 · 2023: 15 · 2022: 16 · 2021: 26
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Science (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Funders
- Medical Research Council (MR/S003711/1, MR/S003711/2)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Modeling and Simulation › COVID-19 epidemiological studies
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Infectious Diseases › SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 Research
- Social Sciences › Health › Vaccine Coverage and Hesitancy
- Keywords
- herd immunity, COVID-19 pandemic, SARS-CoV-2, Manaus, epidemic control, natural infection
- MeSH terms
- COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2, Brazil, Humans, Vaccination, Incidence, Immunity, Herd, Epidemics
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review
