Disentangling the numbers behind agriculture-driven tropical deforestation
Open accessAbstract
Tropical deforestation continues at alarming rates with profound impacts on ecosystems, climate, and livelihoods, prompting renewed commitments to halt its continuation. Although it is well established that agriculture is a dominant driver of deforestation, rates and mechanisms remain disputed and often lack a clear evidence base. We synthesize the best available pantropical evidence to provide clarity on how agriculture drives deforestation. Although most (90 to 99%) deforestation across the tropics 2011 to 2015 was driven by agriculture, only 45 to 65% of deforested land became productive agriculture within a few years. Therefore, ending deforestation likely requires combining measures to create deforestation-free supply chains with landscape governance interventions. We highlight key remaining evidence gaps including deforestation trends, commodity-specific land-use dynamics, and data from tropical dry forests and forests across Africa.
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Land-use change for cattle ranching is the world's most significant direct driver of forest loss, accounting for half of all tropical deforestation, much of that in Latin America.
“Land-use change for cattle ranching is by far the world's most significant direct driver of forest loss, accounting for half of all tropical deforestation, much of that in Latin America (Pendrill et al., 2022).”
From Beyond the “supply chain” framing: Cattle ranching as a vanishing mediator of deforestation and dispossession in the Brazilian and Colombian Amazon (2026) · cites this paper as Pendrill et al., 2022
The paper’s ‘Attributing deforestation to commodities and consumers’ section calls cattle pasture expansion the leading deforestation driver and places most pasture-related deforestation in South America, particularly Brazil. But its estimate of around half refers to deforestation resulting in agricultural production, not all tropical deforestation. The ‘S6d Uncertainties’ section also cautions that forest converted to pasture is not always cleared because of demand for cattle products. (LLM, conf=0.91)
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Tropical forests were the primary sources of new agricultural land in the 1980s and 1990s
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Mayer, P. M., Moran, K. D., Miller, E. L., Brander, S. M., Harper, S., Garcia-Jaramillo, M., Carrasco-Navarro, V., Ho, K. T., Burgess, R. M., Thornton Hampton, L. M., et al. (2024) · Science of The Total Environment · doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.171153 · Cited by 267 · see citing works
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Crop prices and deforestation in the tropics
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Bastos Lima, M. G., & López, J. (2026) · World Development · doi:10.1016/j.worlddev.2026.107532
- Authors
- Pendrill, F., Gardner, T. A., Meyfroidt, P., Persson, U. M., Adams, J., Azevedo, T., Bastos Lima, M. G., Baumann, M., Curtis, P. G., De Sy, V., Garrett, R., Godar, J., Goldman, E. D., Hansen, M. C., Heilmayr, R., Herold, M., Kuemmerle, T., Lathuillière, M. J., Ribeiro, V., Tyukavina, A., Weisse, M. J., & West, C.
- Affiliations
- Chalmers University of Technology (SE)
- Stockholm Environment Institute (SE)
- Fund for Scientific Research (BE)
- World Economic Forum (CH)
- MapBiomas (BR)
- Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI), Stockholm, Sweden.
- Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin (DE)
- Juniata Analytics LLC, Denver, CO, USA.
- Laboratory of Geo-Information Science and Remote Sensing, Wageningen University and Research, Wageningen, Netherlands.
- University of Cambridge (GB)
- World Resources Institute (US)
- University of Maryland, College Park (US)
- University of California, Santa Barbara (US)
- GFZ Helmholtz Centre for Geosciences (DE)
- Stockholm Environment Institute (GB)
- Corresponding author
- Pendrill, Florence
- Gardner, Toby A.
- ORCID
- Pendrill, Florence
- Gardner, Toby A.
- Meyfroidt, Patrick
- Persson, U. Martin
- Azevedo, Tasso
- Bastos Lima, Mairon G.
- Baumann, Matthias
- Curtis, Philip G.
- De Sy, Veronique
- Garrett, Rachael
- Godar, Javier
- Hansen, Matthew C.
- Heilmayr, Robert
- Herold, Martin
- Kuemmerle, Tobias
- Lathuillière, Michael J.
- Ribeiro, Vivian
- Tyukavina, Alexandra
- Weisse, Mikaela J.
- West, Chris
- Venue
- Science
- Published
- 2022-09-09
- Volume
- 377
- Issue
- 6611
- Pages
- eabm9267-eabm9267
- ISSN
- 0036-8075 (ISSN-L)
- 1095-9203
- OpenAlex
- W4295077776
- Cited by
- 572
- References
- 9
- Citations by year
- 2026: 166 · 2025: 172 · 2024: 127 · 2023: 95 · 2022: 9 · 2021: 1
- FWCI
- 8.37
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- Locations
- Science (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- White Rose Research Online (University of Leeds, The University of Sheffield, University of York) (acceptedVersion)
- Socio-Environmental Systems Modeling (acceptedVersion)
- CGSPace A Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (Consultative Group for International Agricultural Research) (submittedVersion)
- DIAL (Catholic University of Leuven) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- Publication Database GFZ (GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences) (submittedVersion)
- Chalmers Research (Chalmers University of Technology) (submittedVersion)
- Apollo (University of Cambridge) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Data Archiving and Networked Services (DANS) (submittedVersion)
- Apollo (cc-by)
- Funders
- UK Research and Innovation
- European Commission
- Svenska Forskningsrådet Formas
- Economic and Social Research Council (ES/S008160/1)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Conservation, Biodiversity, and Resource Management
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Ecology › Oil Palm Production and Sustainability
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Land Use and Ecosystem Services
- Keywords
- tropical deforestation, agriculture, deforestation drivers, land use change, deforestation-free supply chains, landscape governance, tropical dry forest, evidence gaps
- MeSH terms
- Agriculture, Conservation of Natural Resources, Tropical Climate, Forests
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