Fifty years of violent war deaths from Vietnam to Bosnia: analysis of data from the world health survey programme

Obermeyer, Ziad; Murray, Christopher J L; Gakidou, Emmanuela

doi:10.1136/bmj.a137

Cited by 200Health and Conflict StudiesEnvironmental and Biological Research in Conflict ZonesPolitical Conflict and Governance

Fifty years of violent war deaths from Vietnam to Bosnia: analysis of data from the world health survey programme

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Obermeyer, Ziad, Murray, Christopher J L, Gakidou, Emmanuela·2008·BMJ

DOI 10.1136/bmj.a137PMC PMC2440905

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Abstract

OBJECTIVE: To provide an accurate estimate of violent war deaths. DESIGN: Analysis of survey data on mortality, adjusted for sampling bias and censoring, from nationally representative surveys designed to measure population health. Estimated deaths compared with estimates in database of passive reports. SETTING: 2002-3 World health surveys, in which information was collected from one respondent per household about sibling deaths, including whether such deaths resulted from war injuries. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Estimated deaths from war injuries in 13 countries over 50 years. RESULTS: From 1955 to 2002, data from the surveys indicated an estimated 5.4 million violent war deaths (95% confidence interval 3.0 to 8.7 million) in 13 countries, ranging from 7000 in the Republic of Congo [corrected] to 3.8 million in Vietnam. From 1995 to 2002 survey data indicate 36,000 war deaths annually (16,000 to 71,000) in the 13 countries studied. Data from passive surveillance, however, indicated a figure of only a third of this. On the basis of the relation between world health survey data and passive reports, we estimate 378,000 globalwar deaths annually from 1985-94, the last years for which complete passive surveillance data were available. CONCLUSIONS: The use of data on sibling history from peacetime population surveys can retrospectively estimate mortality from war. War causes more deaths than previously estimated, and there is no evidence to support a recent decline in war deaths.

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War and disaster and their after-effects may severely disrupt the infrastructure of vital and health registration systems, complicating collection of data on morbidity and mortality.
“Problematic, however, is that war and disaster and their after-effects may severely disrupt the infrastructure of vital and health registration systems, complicating collection of data on morbidity and mortality.”
From The global burden of injury: incidence, mortality, disability-adjusted life years and time trends from the Global Burden of Disease study 2013 (2016) · cites this paper as [55]

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Authors: Obermeyer, Z., Murray, C. J. L., & Gakidou, E.
Affiliations: Harvard University (US)
University of Washington (US)
Corresponding author: Obermeyer, Ziad
ORCID: Obermeyer, Ziad
Murray, Christopher J L
Gakidou, Emmanuela
Venue: BMJ
Publisher: BMJ
Published: 2008-06-19
Volume: 336
Issue: 7659
Pages: 1482-1486
ISSN: 0007-1447 (ISSN-L)
0959-8138
1468-5833
DOI: 10.1136/bmj.a137
PMC: PMC2440905
OpenAlex: W1977347639
Cited by: 200
References: 45
Citations by year: 2026: 9 · 2025: 8 · 2024: 2 · 2023: 8 · 2022: 10 · 2021: 44 · 2020: 9 · 2019: 5 · 2018: 10 · 2017: 11 · 2016: 6 · 2015: 9 · 2014: 9 · 2013: 10 · 2012: 13
FWCI: 23.78
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: bronze
doi.org
Licence: www.bmj.org/licenses/tdm/1.0/terms-and-conditions.html (tdm)
Locations: BMJ (publishedVersion)
PubMed Central (publishedVersion)
PubMed (publishedVersion)
HighWire Press Open Archive (submittedVersion)
Topics: Health Sciences › Health Professions › General Health Professions › Health and Conflict Studies
Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law › Environmental and Biological Research in Conflict Zones
Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Political Conflict and Governance
Keywords: death in war, war injuries, World Health Survey, passive surveillance, mortality estimation, conflict-related deaths, Vietnam War, Bosnia
MeSH terms: Adolescent, Adult, Aged, Child, Child, Preschool, Epidemiologic Methods, Family Characteristics, Female, Humans, Infant, Male, Middle Aged, Mortality, Violence, Warfare, Global Health, Age Distribution, Sex Distribution

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Fifty years of violent war deaths from Vietnam to Bosnia: analysis of data from the world health survey programme

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