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Impact of blinding on estimated treatment effects in randomised clinical trials: meta-epidemiological study
Open accessAbstract
Objectives: To study the impact of blinding on estimated treatment effects, and their variation between trials; differentiating between blinding of patients, healthcare providers, and observers; detection bias and performance bias; and types of outcome (the MetaBLIND study). Design: Meta-epidemiological study. Data source: Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews (2013-14). Eligibility criteria for selecting studies: Meta-analyses with both blinded and non-blinded trials on any topic. Review methods: Blinding status was retrieved from trial publications and authors, and results retrieved automatically from the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews. Bayesian hierarchical models estimated the average ratio of odds ratios (ROR), and estimated the increases in heterogeneity between trials, for non-blinded trials (or of unclear status) versus blinded trials. Secondary analyses adjusted for adequacy of concealment of allocation, attrition, and trial size, and explored the association between outcome subjectivity (high, moderate, low) and average bias. An ROR lower than 1 indicated exaggerated effect estimates in trials without blinding. Results: The study included 142 meta-analyses (1153 trials). The ROR for lack of blinding of patients was 0.91 (95% credible interval 0.61 to 1.34) in 18 meta-analyses with patient reported outcomes, and 0.98 (0.69 to 1.39) in 14 meta-analyses with outcomes reported by blinded observers. The ROR for lack of blinding of healthcare providers was 1.01 (0.84 to 1.19) in 29 meta-analyses with healthcare provider decision outcomes (eg, readmissions), and 0.97 (0.64 to 1.45) in 13 meta-analyses with outcomes reported by blinded patients or observers. The ROR for lack of blinding of observers was 1.01 (0.86 to 1.18) in 46 meta-analyses with subjective observer reported outcomes, with no clear impact of degree of subjectivity. Information was insufficient to determine whether lack of blinding was associated with increased heterogeneity between trials. The ROR for trials not reported as double blind versus those that were double blind was 1.02 (0.90 to 1.13) in 74 meta-analyses. Conclusion: No evidence was found for an average difference in estimated treatment effect between trials with and without blinded patients, healthcare providers, or outcome assessors. These results could reflect that blinding is less important than often believed or meta-epidemiological study limitations, such as residual confounding or imprecision. At this stage, replication of this study is suggested and blinding should remain a methodological safeguard in trials.
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“However, this overemphasizes the assumed effect of blinding in trials, which is not reflected in clinical data [59].”
From Efficacy and Acceptance of Cognitive Behavioral Therapy in Adults with Chronic Fatigue Syndrome: A Meta-analysis. (2024) · cites this paper as [59]
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“based on meta-epidemiological studies [22][23][24][25] that found little to no effect of blinding on treatment results among randomised trials (including a review of oral health trials 26 )”
From Management of chronic pain secondary to temporomandibular disorders: a systematic review and network meta-analysis of randomised trials (2023) · cites this paper as [22]
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“However, a recent meta-epidemiological study found no evidence that lack of patients’ blinding had an impact on estimate effects.39”
From Efficacy and safety of osteopathic manipulative treatment: an overview of systematic reviews (2022) · cites this paper as [39]
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“30 31 Comparisons within trials 13 17-19 provide strong evidence that in specific settings lack of blinding in trials causes considerable bias.”
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“12 We further categorised experimental interventions as alternative/complementary or conventional medicine, to facilitate comparison with a systematic review of trials randomising patients to blinded and unblinded substudies.”
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“17 Similarly, a systematic review of 12 trials randomising patients to blinded and non-blinded substudies reported a pronounced bias due to lack of patient blinding in complementary/ alternative medicine trials with patient reported outcomes, exaggerating effect sizes by 0.56 standard deviations.”
InfluentialSelf-citationEpidemiology and reporting of randomised trials published in PubMed journals
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“28 This means that blinding, as currently evaluated, probably could be less important than often believed 29 or that studies may have used other ways to decrease performance or detection biases (but not necessarily have used blinding of allocation).”
BackgroundBlinding Assessments in Neonatal Ventilation Meta-Analyses: A Systematic Meta-Epidemiological Review
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Self-citationAcellular fish skin grafts in the treatment of diabetic wounds: Advantages and clinical translation
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“54 Furthermore, it is difficult to cover the blinding during the administration of patients 55 Due to its special treatment, patients in the double-blind trial easily know that their intervention is the experimental group or the control group, which has a great impact on the trial.”
BackgroundQin, Z., Yu, Y., Gu, H., Shi, D., Wang, Z., Wu, J., Furukawa, T. A., & Wu, Y. (2024) · General Psychiatry · doi:10.1136/gpsych-2024-101578 · Cited by 13
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“Placebos should minimize bias when evaluating the treatment benefits, which is especially important for subjective outcomes such as fatigue, nausea, or pain.(37,38) Providers are more likely to treat all patients the same because they do not know who is receiving a placebo treatment.”
BackgroundLi, H. Y., Cheriyan, J., Chan, T.-K., Yiu, K., Tse, H., Wilkinson, I. B., & Chan, Y. (2025) · American Journal of Cardiovascular Drugs · doi:10.1007/s40256-025-00743-y · Cited by 13
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“Thus, blinding may not be as important as previously believed (Moustgaard et al., 2020).”
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Mindful Walking in Patients with Chronic Low Back Pain: A Randomized Controlled Trial
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“However, recently, the relevance of blinding in RCTs has been discussed, as a metaepidemiological study found no evidence for an average difference in estimated treatment effects between trials with and without blinded patients, health care providers, or outcome assessors.(43) However, the lack of blinding might have…”
Wang, H., Song, J., Lin, Y., Dai, W., Gao, Y., Qin, L., Chen, Y., Tam, W., Wu, X., & Chung, V. C. (2022) · BMC Medical Research Methodology · doi:10.1186/s12874-022-01650-5 · Cited by 11
“Background Randomized controlled trial (RCT) is regarded as the best reliable study design for evaluating the efficacy or effectiveness of healthcare interventions [1, 2].”
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Navigating blinding challenges in complex intervention trials: insights from a UK researcher survey
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“Blinding outcome assessors, in contrast, mitigates detection bias by preventing expectations from influencing data collection or interpretation [24, 25], while blinding statisticians or data analysts helps safeguard against analytical bias during data processing and reporting [26, 27].”
Zeraatkar, D., Pitre, T., Díaz-Martínez, J. P., Chu, D. K., Rochwerg, B. N., Lamontagne, F., Kum, E., Qasim, A., Bartoszko, J. J., & Brignardello‐Petersen, R. (2023) · American Journal of Epidemiology · doi:10.1093/aje/kwad131 · Cited by 11
Effects of exergames on rehabilitation outcomes in patients with osteoarthritis. A systematic review
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Clinical Trial Designs for Neuromodulation in Chronic Spinal Cord Injury Using Epidural Stimulation
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“org/lice also be biased by inadequate blinding of participants, health care providers, or outcome assessors.(4,5) Funding and industry sponsorship may also introduce bias.”
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Psilocybin in the Treatment of Cocaine Use Disorder
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“As a result, we believe that the lack of blinding had only minimal risk of biasing the results.(14) Crossovers from the control group T A B L E 3 Data from ECV 2 (n = 96)”
BackgroundDistinguishing Immunologic and Behavioral Effects of Vaccination
Stensrud, M. J., Nevo, D., & Obolski, U. (2024) · Epidemiology · doi:10.1097/ede.0000000000001699 · Cited by 9
Chen, C., Zhang, R., Li, Q., Lin, Y., Zhang, X., Li, F., & Meng, L. (2025) · Journal of Endodontics · doi:10.1016/j.joen.2025.03.005 · Cited by 8
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“In a previous study [55], no evidence showed a difference in the estimated treatment effect between trials with and without blinded patients, healthcare providers, or outcome assessors.”
BackgroundGómez‐Sánchez, L., Gómez‐Sánchez, M., Lugones‐Sánchez, C., Rodríguez‐Sánchez, E., Tamayo‐Morales, O., González‐Sánchez, S., Botaya, R. M., Ramírez‐Manent, J. I., Recio-Rodriguez, J. I., Agudo‐Conde, C., et al. (2022) · Nutrients · doi:10.3390/nu14224758 · Cited by 9
How should we assess trustworthiness of randomized controlled trials?
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“45 However, in this meta-analysis we have uniquely assessed this relationship separately for placebo and treatment groups.”
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“The study still suggests that blinding should be maintained in good practice [7].”
BackgroundA Comparison between Clinical Decision Support System and Clinicians in Breast Cancer
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“difference in the estimated treatment effect between trials with and without blinded patients or healthcare providers [66].”
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“It is unknown whether different background therapy would result in differences in efficacy.”
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“However, the magnitude of the asses-sor-blinding effect is debated (Moustgaard et al., 2020; Sterne et al., 2019).”
BackgroundGranholm, A., Munch, M. W., Meier, N. F., Sjövall, F., Helleberg, M., Hertz, F. B., Kaas‐Hansen, B. S., Thorsen‐Meyer, H., Andersen, L. W., Rasmussen, B. S., et al. (2024) · Acta Anaesthesiologica Scandinavica · doi:10.1111/aas.14441 · Cited by 6
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“It is therefore recommended that in future research, blinding should be implemented as much as possible during the trials to reduce bias, and detailed information should be reported to improve the transparency of the research [65].”
Stem Cell Therapy for the Treatment of Crohn's Disease; Current Obstacles and Future Hopes
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Calreticulin Expression in Human Carcinomas: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis
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“Blinding procedures are also relevant tools to eliminate biases related to estimated treatment effects (Moustgaard et al., 2020).”
BackgroundZhao, R.-L., Ma, P., Liu, B., Yu, C., Zhang, H., Lv, Q., Yang, D., Yang, Y., Liu, H., Wang, F., et al. (2023) · Frontiers in Neurology · doi:10.3389/fneur.2023.1301217 · Cited by 5
Incorrect blinding assessments are common in meta‐analyses published in high impact journals
Kuitunen, I., Ponkilainen, V., & Uimonen, M. (2024) · Journal of Evidence-Based Medicine · doi:10.1111/jebm.12636 · Cited by 5
Jussil, H., Chaimani, A., Carlberg, B., & Brunström, M. (2021) · BMJ Open · doi:10.1136/bmjopen-2020-044302 · Cited by 5
Kim, J., Park, J. J., Bang, H., & Kolahi, J. (2021) · Dental Hypotheses · doi:10.4103/denthyp.denthyp_99_21 · Cited by 5
Marschall, H., Forman, A., Lunde, S. J., Kesmodel, U. S., Hansen, K. E., & Vase, L. (2022) · BMJ Open · doi:10.1136/bmjopen-2022-062808 · Cited by 5
“17 21 Although a meta-epidemiological study indicated no link between blinding and treatment effect, 22 potentially suggesting that blinding may not be as important for unbiased results as presumed, the study included only two surgical trials.”
ResultAllemang‐Trivalle, A., Leducq, S., Maruani, A., & Giraudeau, B. (2023) · BMC Medical Research Methodology · doi:10.1186/s12874-023-02017-0 · Cited by 5
“…the treatment effect), selection bias [141, 142] (whereby patients receiving the experimental treat-ment are selected from a pool of “good responders”, thus resulting in an overestimation of the treatment effect), performance, and detection bias [143, 144] (because there is no blinding).”
BackgroundMiyake, N., So, R., Kariyama, K., Itagaki, Y., Yamagishi, T., Wakuta, A., Nishimura, M., Murakami, S., Ogawa, M., Takebayashi, Y., et al. (2024) · General Hospital Psychiatry · doi:10.1016/j.genhosppsych.2024.07.003 · Cited by 4
Lai, M., Wong, M. M., Kearney, L. N., & Lee, N. (2024) · Midwifery · doi:10.1016/j.midw.2024.104113 · Cited by 5
Lee, N., Mårtensson, L. B., Gao, Y., Callaway, L. K., Barnett, B., Hellyer, S., Kearney, L. N., & Kildea, S. V. (2025) · International Journal of Nursing Studies · doi:10.1016/j.ijnurstu.2025.105244 · Cited by 4
“However, the impact of bias from unblinded assessors remains contentious with some studies reporting significant effects while other suggest minimal to no threats to data accuracy (Hr ´ objartsson et al., 2012; Moustgaard et al., 2020).”
Antibiotics for hospital-acquired pneumonia in neonates and children
Korang, S. K., Nava, C., Nygaard, U., & Jakobsen, J. C. (2021) · Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews · doi:10.1002/14651858.cd013864 · Cited by 4
Long, Y., Zhang, N., Wang, X., Tang, R., Guo, Q., Huang, J., & Du, L. (2024) · Journal of Evidence-Based Medicine · doi:10.1111/jebm.12589 · Cited by 4
Tomczyk‐Warunek, A., Kłapeć, M., Blicharski, R., Dresler, S., Sowa, I., Gieleta, A. W., Skrzypek, T., Lis, M., Kazimierczak, W., & Blicharski, T. (2024) · Journal of Clinical Medicine · doi:10.3390/jcm13237318 · Cited by 4
Haertter, S., Kanodia, J., Cook, J., Alicea, J., Brennan, B. J., Desai, A. V., Patel, B., Pan, L., & Goteti, K. (2021) · Clinical and Translational Science · doi:10.1111/cts.13200 · Cited by 4
Hullegie, S., Venekamp, R. P., van Dongen, T. M. A., Mulder, S., van Schaik, W., de Wit, G. A., Hay, A. D., Little, P. S., Moore, M. V., Sanders, E. A. M., et al. (2021) · BMJ Open · doi:10.1136/bmjopen-2021-052128 · Cited by 4
Estimating the effect of COVID-19 on trial design characteristics: a registered report
Smith, J. A., DeVito, N., Lee, H., Tiplady, C., Abhari, R. E., & Kartsonaki, C. (2023) · Royal Society Open Science · doi:10.1098/rsos.201543 · Cited by 3
“There is also uncertainty about the importance of blinding in trials [33].”
BackgroundButler, C. (2024) · European Journal of General Practice · doi:10.1080/13814788.2023.2293702 · Cited by 6
“Participants receiving a study intervention, regardless of whether it is an active treat-ment or placebo, are likely to alter their health-seeking behaviour in response to this uncertainty [21], and effect sizes from open trials do not differ meaningfully from placebo-controlled trials [22].”
Wang, B. H., Lin, Y., Gao, Y., Song, J., Qin, L., Li, L., Liu, W., Zhong, C. C., Jiang, M. Y., Mao, C., et al. (2024) · Journal of Chinese Integrative Medicine · doi:10.1016/j.joim.2024.04.003 · Cited by 3
Kaivorinne, A., Räisänen, M. P., Karjalainen, T., Jokihaara, J., Gvozdenovic, R., Wilcke, M., Reito, A. R., Anttila, T., Pönkkö, A., Lauridsen, C. A., et al. (2024) · BMJ Open · doi:10.1136/bmjopen-2024-086102 · Cited by 3
The Impact of Diclofenac Suppositories on Post‐Cesarean Section Pain: A Systematic Literature Review
Antwi, S. A., Antwi, P. K. A., Adarkwa, S. A., Mensah, K. B., & Woode, E. (2025) · Anesthesiology Research and Practice · doi:10.1155/anrp/5457722 · Cited by 4
So, R., Nouso, K., Matsushita, S., Yoshiji, H., Yuzuriha, T., Hida, E., Nishimura, H., Takagi, Y., & Horie, Y. (2025) · Psychiatry and Clinical Neurosciences · doi:10.1111/pcn.13874 · Cited by 3
“47 Third, as discussed previously, a greater change in outcomes was observed in our control group, possibly due to the effects of daily drinking records using the app together with the sustained adherence reminders throughout the treatment period, compared to previous pill placebo trials with…”
Rosa, C. D., Chaves, T. S., Collado, S., Larson, L. R., Lee, K. J., & Profice, C. C. (2024) · People and Nature · doi:10.1002/pan3.10764 · Cited by 3
Lim, J., Kim, B.-G., & Choi, A.-S. (2025) · Journal of Exercise Rehabilitation · doi:10.12965/jer.2448676.338 · Cited by 2
“…that, although no statistically significant difference was found in effect size comparisons and relationship analyses based on the presence or absence of blinding, blinding should still be maintained as a methodological safeguard in trials (Armijo-Olivo et al., 2017; Moustgaard et al., 2020).”
de Sévaux, J. L. H., Damoiseaux, R. A. M. J., Hullegie, S., Sanders, E. A. M., de Wit, G. A., Zuithoff, N. P. A., Yardley, L., Anthierens, S., Little, P. S., Hay, A. D., et al. (2023) · BMJ Open · doi:10.1136/bmjopen-2022-062071 · Cited by 3
Klopf, J., Willixhofer, R., Scheuba, A., Fuchs, L., Sotir, A., Wanhainen, A., Brostjan, C., Neumayer, C., & Eilenberg, W. H. (2023) · International Journal of Surgery · doi:10.1097/js9.0000000000000343 · Cited by 3
“Interestingly, a recent study analyzing 142 meta-analyses revealed no evidence for an average difference in estimated treatment effect between trials with and without blinded patients, healthcare providers, or outcome assessors([37]).”
BackgroundWhiting, P. F., Wolff, R. F., Savović, J., Devine, B., & Mallett, S. (2024) · Journal of Clinical Epidemiology · doi:10.1016/j.jclinepi.2024.111486 · Cited by 3
Self-citationSøholm, J. C., Nørgaard, S. K., Nørgaard, K., Clausen, T. D., Damm, P., Mathiesen, E. R., & Ringholm, L. (2024) · Diabetic Medicine · doi:10.1111/dme.15467 · Cited by 3
Sikora, R., Duspara, K., Matić, A., Petrović, A., Kralik, K., Smolić, R., Šikora, M., Šarac, M. Č., Bojanić, K., & Smolić, M. (2025) · Medicina · doi:10.3390/medicina61030375 · Cited by 3
“Also, a recent study suggested that blinding is less important than is often assumed [59]; however, replicating our study with blinding as a methodological safety measure would be valuable to perform in the future.”
Natural unblinding of BCG vaccination trials
Szigeti, R. G., & Kellermayer, R. (2021) · Vaccine · doi:10.1016/j.vaccine.2021.03.039 · Cited by 3
“Lack of appropriate blinding in randomized clinical trials may lead to significant bias [7–9], although this dogma has been recently challenged [7,10,11].”
BackgroundSuccess of Masking 5% Povidone‐Iodine Treatment: The Reducing Adenoviral Patient Infected Days Study
Whiteside, M. M., Shorter, E. S., Margolis, M. S., Alvi, F., Huecker, J. B., Than, T. P., Migneco, M. K., Harthan, J., Morettin, C. E., Hartwick, A. T. E., et al. (2021) · Optometry and Vision Science · doi:10.1097/opx.0000000000001691 · Cited by 3
Assessing the Risk of Bias in Randomized Trials
Page, M. J., Altman, D. G., & Egger, M. (2022) · Wiley eBooks · doi:10.1002/9781119099369.ch4 · Cited by 3
Xu, Z.-Y., Neuber, S., Nazari‐Shafti, T. Z., Liu, Z., Dong, F., & Stamm, C. (2022) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0261462 · Cited by 2
Protecting blinded trials in electronic hospital systems
Sydes, M. R., Wong, W. K., Bakhai, A., Joffe, N., & Love, S. (2022) · Clinical Trials · doi:10.1177/17407745211069985 · Cited by 2
Raperport, C., Chronopoulou, E., Petrie, A., Homburg, R., Timlick, E., Barhate, S., Sackett, K., & Bhide, P. (2025) · BJOG An International Journal of Obstetrics & Gynaecology · doi:10.1111/1471-0528.18171 · Cited by 2
Jong, F. J. X., Lee, C. C. W., Ting, R. S., Lin, M., Ong, L. K., Quek, X. F., Lee, S. W. H., Ng, A. L. O., & Teoh, S. L. (2025) · EXPLORE · doi:10.1016/j.explore.2025.103204 · Cited by 3
Sanmartí, R., Pérez-García, C., Toro, F. J. D., Salvador, G., Escudero-Contreras, A., Cuervo, A. M., Graell, E., Reina, D., Kanterewicz, E., Corominas, H., et al. (2026) · Nature Medicine · doi:10.1038/s41591-026-04395-6 · Cited by 2
“Although blinding is a necessary methodological safeguard of a clinical trial, for some authors blinding could have less of an impact on trials using an active comparator and those aimed at determining an intention-to-treat effect 30 , such as in our trial.”
Culvenor, A. G., Bruder, A. M., West, T., Barton, C. J., Roos, E. M., Oei, E. H. G., McPhail, S., Souza, R. B., Lee, J., Patterson, B., et al. (2026) · Annals of Internal Medicine · doi:10.7326/annals-26-02460 · Cited by 2
Treating ocular surface disease – A daily experience
Novack, G. D. (2020) · The Ocular Surface · doi:10.1016/j.jtos.2020.02.001 · Cited by 2
Nafi'an, M. R. T., Sabirin, R. M., Wibowo, R. A., Sofyana, M., Zahra, I. H., Wiryawan, D. A., Wijayatno, Q. J., & Rohman, A. (2024) · Nitric Oxide · doi:10.1016/j.niox.2024.07.003 · Cited by 2
de Oliveira‐Souza, A. I. S., Kempe, M., Grimmelsmann, S., Tavares, L. F., de Castro‐Carletti, E. M., Andrade, A. V., Dennett, L., von Piekartz, H., Fuentes, J., & Armijo-Olivo, S. L. (2024) · Experimental Physiology · doi:10.1113/ep091884 · Cited by 2
Metadata
- Authors
- Moustgaard, H., Clayton, G. L., Jones, H. E., Boutron, I., Jørgensen, L., Laursen, D. R. T., Olsen, M. F., Paludan-Müller, A., Ravaud, P., Savović, J., Sterne, J. A. C., Higgins, J. P. T., & Hróbjartsson, A.
- Affiliations
- Odense University Hospital (DK)
- University of Bristol (GB)
- Hôtel-Dieu de Paris (FR)
- Cochrane (DK)
- University Hospitals Bristol NHS Foundation Trust (GB)
- University of Southern Denmark (DK)
- Corresponding author
- Moustgaard, Helene
- ORCID
- Venue
- BMJ
- Publisher
- BMJ
- Published
- 2020-01-21
- Volume
- 368
- Issue
- 2
- Pages
- l6802
- ISSN
- 1756-1833 (ISSN-L)
- PMC
- PMC7190062
- OpenAlex
- W3001993019
- Cited by
- 300
- References
- 36
- Citations by year
- 2026: 21 · 2025: 45 · 2024: 55 · 2023: 50 · 2022: 49 · 2021: 50 · 2020: 27
- FWCI
- 9.08
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Update notices
- correction (2020-02-05)
- Open access
- hybrid
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- BMJ (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Bristol Research (University of Bristol) (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- University of Southern Denmark Research Portal (University of Southern Denmark) (acceptedVersion, cc-by-nc)
- HAL (submittedVersion)
- HighWire Press Open Archive (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- University Hospitals Bristol NHS Foundation Trust
- NIHR Bristol Biomedical Research Centre (NF-SI-0617-10145)
- National Institute for Health and Care Research (NF-SI-0611-10168, NF-SI-0616-10111, NIHR200268, NF-SI-0617-10145)
- Department of Health and Social Care
- University of Bristol
- Medical Research Council (MR/K025643/1, MR/M014533/1, MR/L004933/1, MR/L004933/2)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty › Meta-analysis and systematic reviews
- Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Statistics and Probability › Statistical Methods in Clinical Trials
- Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Statistics and Probability › Advanced Causal Inference Techniques
- Keywords
- blinding, randomized controlled trials, treatment effect estimation, detection bias, performance bias, trial heterogeneity, meta-analysis bias, double blinding, allocation concealment, attrition, meta-epidemiology, patient-reported outcomes
- MeSH terms
- Clinical Trials as Topic, Humans, Research Design, Epidemiologic Research Design, Observer Variation, Outcome Assessment, Health Care
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