Observer bias in randomized clinical trials with measurement scale outcomes: a systematic review of trials with both blinded and nonblinded assessors
Open accessAbstract
BACKGROUND: Clinical trials are commonly done without blinded outcome assessors despite the risk of bias. We wanted to evaluate the effect of nonblinded outcome assessment on estimated effects in randomized clinical trials with outcomes that involved subjective measurement scales. METHODS: We conducted a systematic review of randomized clinical trials with both blinded and nonblinded assessment of the same measurement scale outcome. We searched PubMed, EMBASE, PsycINFO, CINAHL, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, HighWire Press and Google Scholar for relevant studies. Two investigators agreed on the inclusion of trials and the outcome scale. For each trial, we calculated the difference in effect size (i.e., standardized mean difference between nonblinded and blinded assessments). A difference in effect size of less than 0 suggested that nonblinded assessors generated more optimistic estimates of effect. We pooled the differences in effect size using inverse variance random-effects meta-analysis and used metaregression to identify potential reasons for variation. RESULTS: We included 24 trials in our review. The main meta-analysis included 16 trials (involving 2854 patients) with subjective outcomes. The estimated treatment effect was more beneficial when based on nonblinded assessors (pooled difference in effect size -0.23 [95% confidence interval (CI) -0.40 to -0.06]). In relative terms, nonblinded assessors exaggerated the pooled effect size by 68% (95% CI 14% to 230%). Heterogeneity was moderate (I(2) = 46%, p = 0.02) and unexplained by metaregression. INTERPRETATION: We provide empirical evidence for observer bias in randomized clinical trials with subjective measurement scale outcomes. A failure to blind assessors of outcomes in such trials results in a high risk of substantial bias.
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Double-blind study design increases methodological rigour by minimising performance and ascertainment biases.
“We considered only double-blind trials because we included placebo in the network meta-analysis, and because this study design increases methodological rigour by minimising performance and ascertainment biases.7”
From Comparative efficacy and acceptability of 21 antidepressant drugs for the acute treatment of adults with major depressive disorder: a systematic review and network meta-analysis (2018) · cites this paper as [7]
The Abstract says blinding outcome assessors helps avoid ascertainment bias, and the Conclusion reports a high risk of bias when assessors are not blinded in trials with subjective measurement-scale outcomes. The paper does not establish that double-blind design minimises performance bias; it also cautions in the Abstract that “double-blind” is an ambiguous term. (LLM, conf=0.87)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredTrials at high or unclear risk of bias tend to overestimate benefits and underestimate harms.
“Trials at high or unclear risk of bias tend to overestimate benefits and underestimate harms.”
From Should antidepressants be used for major depressive disorder? (2020) · cites this paper as [38]
Risk of performance bias was evaluated separately for each outcome.
“We evaluated the risk of performance bias separately for each outcome (Hróbjartsson 2013).”
From Diet, physical activity or both for prevention or delay of type 2 diabetes mellitus and its associated complications in people at increased risk of developing type 2 diabetes mellitus (2017) · cites this paper as Hróbjartsson 2013
Risk of detection bias was evaluated separately for each outcome.
“We evaluated the risk of detection bias separately for each outcome (Hróbjartsson 2013).”
From Diet, physical activity or both for prevention or delay of type 2 diabetes mellitus and its associated complications in people at increased risk of developing type 2 diabetes mellitus (2017) · cites this paper as Hróbjartsson 2013
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- Authors
- Hróbjartsson, A., Thomsen, A. S. S., Emanuelsson, F., Tendal, B., Hilden, J., Boutron, I., Ravaud, P., & Brorson, S.
- Affiliations
- University of Copenhagen (DK)
- ORCID
- Venue
- Canadian Medical Association Journal
- Publisher
- CMA Impact Inc.
- Published
- 2013-01-28
- Volume
- 185
- Issue
- 4
- Pages
- E201-E211
- ISSN
- 0820-3946 (ISSN-L)
- 1488-2329
- PMC
- PMC3589328
- OpenAlex
- W2006175454
- Cited by
- 527
- References
- 52
- Citations by year
- 2026: 30 · 2025: 26 · 2024: 23 · 2023: 54 · 2022: 46 · 2021: 43 · 2020: 35 · 2019: 45 · 2018: 51 · 2017: 31 · 2016: 54 · 2015: 37 · 2014: 29 · 2013: 21 · 2012: 1
- FWCI
- 9.63
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Locations
- Canadian Medical Association Journal (publishedVersion)
- Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (publishedVersion)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Research at the University of Copenhagen (University of Copenhagen) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty › Meta-analysis and systematic reviews
- Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Statistics and Probability › Statistical Methods in Clinical Trials
- Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty › Reliability and Agreement in Measurement
- Keywords
- observer bias, subjective outcomes, risk of bias, effect size estimation, bias in clinical trials
- MeSH terms
- Double-Blind Method, Observer Variation, Randomized Controlled Trials as Topic, Outcome Assessment, Health Care
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
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