Bias due to lack of patient blinding in clinical trials. A systematic review of trials randomizing patients to blind and nonblind sub-studies
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BACKGROUND: Blinding patients in clinical trials is a key methodological procedure, but the expected degree of bias due to nonblinded patients on estimated treatment effects is unknown. METHODS: Systematic review of randomized clinical trials with one sub-study (i.e. experimental vs control) involving blinded patients and another, otherwise identical, sub-study involving nonblinded patients. Within each trial, we compared the difference in effect sizes (i.e. standardized mean differences) between the sub-studies. A difference <0 indicates that nonblinded patients generated a more optimistic effect estimate. We pooled the differences with random-effects inverse variance meta-analysis, and explored reasons for heterogeneity. RESULTS: Our main analysis included 12 trials (3869 patients). The average difference in effect size for patient-reported outcomes was -0.56 (95% confidence interval -0.71 to -0.41), (I(2)=60%, P=0.004), i.e. nonblinded patients exaggerated the effect size by an average of 0.56 standard deviation, but with considerable variation. Two of the 12 trials also used observer-reported outcomes, showing no indication of exaggerated effects due lack of patient blinding. There was a larger effect size difference in 10 acupuncture trials [-0.63 (-0.77 to -0.49)], than in the two non-acupuncture trials [-0.17 (-0.41 to 0.07)]. Lack of patient blinding also increased attrition and use of co-interventions: ratio of control group attrition risk 1.79 (1.18 to 2.70), and ratio of control group co-intervention risk 1.55 (0.99 to 2.43). CONCLUSIONS: This study provides empirical evidence of pronounced bias due to lack of patient blinding in complementary/alternative randomized clinical trials with patient-reported outcomes.
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A meta-epidemiological study of blinding showed that unblinded RCTs overestimated the outcome effect by 0.56 standard deviations.
“a meta-epidemiological study of blinding showed that unblinded RCTs overestimated the outcome effect by 0.56 standard deviations”
From Evaluation of reporting quality of abstracts of randomized controlled trials regarding patients with COVID-19 using the CONSORT statement for abstracts (2022) · cites this paper as Hróbjartsson et al., 2014
The Abstract and Discussion report an average exaggeration of 0.56 standard deviations, but specifically for patient-reported outcomes in 12 trials comparing blinded and nonblinded patient sub-studies, with considerable variation. The paper describes itself as a systematic review of those trials, not a meta-epidemiological study of unblinded RCTs generally. (LLM, conf=0.88)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredBoth patients and clinicians often correctly guess whether they are in the active drug or placebo group, likely enhancing responses in the drug group and reducing responses in the placebo group.
“Both patients and clinicians often correctly guess whether they are in the active drug or placebo group, likely enhancing responses in the drug group and reducing responses in the placebo group (Chen et al., 2011, 2015; Hróbjartsson et al., 2014; Margraf et al., 1991; Baethge et al., 2013).”
From Revisiting the SSRI vs. placebo debate in the treatment of social anxiety disorder: the role of expectancy effects, neural responsivity, and monoamine transporters (2025) · cites this paper as Hróbjartsson et al., 2014
The Discussion and Bias mechanisms sections report that nonblinded patients produced larger patient-reported treatment effects, apparently through response bias and placebo effects. But the review does not establish that patients or clinicians often correctly guess drug-versus-placebo assignments, or that such guesses enhance drug-group responses while reducing placebo-group responses. Its trials predominantly involved acupuncture, not active-drug comparisons. Page numbers were not available in our copy. (LLM, conf=0.84)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredThe effects of the intervention may have been overestimated because participants were not blinded and substance use was self-reported.
“There is also the possibility that the effects of the intervention were overestimated because participants were not blinded (Hrobjartsson 2014), and substance use was self-reported.”
From Motivational interviewing for substance use reduction (2023) · cites this paper as Hrobjartsson 2014
We are not able to blind patients to their condition, which may lead to bias and exaggeration of the effect.
“We are not able to blind patients to their condition, which may lead to bias and exaggeration of the effect [45].”
Side effects associated with SSRIs can inadvertently reveal participants' group assignments, undermining the blind.
“In particular, side effects associated with SSRIs can inadvertently reveal participants' group assignments, undermining the blind.”
From Revisiting the SSRI vs. placebo debate in the treatment of social anxiety disorder: the role of expectancy effects, neural responsivity, and monoamine transporters (2025) · cites this paper as Hróbjartsson et al., 2014
The Introduction and Discussion address the consequences of patients knowing their treatment assignments, chiefly in complementary or alternative therapy trials. Searches for SSRIs, antidepressants, side effects, and adverse events found no passage saying that drug side effects reveal assignments or break the blind. (LLM, conf=0.73)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
Trials at high or unclear risk of bias tend to overestimate benefits and underestimate harms.
“Trials at high or unclear risk of bias tend to overestimate benefits and underestimate harms.”
From Should antidepressants be used for major depressive disorder? (2020) · cites this paper as [36]
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Motivational interviewing for substance use reduction
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“Limitations We are not able to blind patients to their condition, which may lead to bias and exaggeration of the effect [45].”
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“…that trials with inadequate or unclear allocation conceal- ent overestimate the treatment effect by up to 7% ( Savovi ́c et al., 012 ), and a meta-epidemiological study of blinding showed that nblinded RCTs overestimated the outcome effect by 0.56 standard eviations ( Hróbjartsson et al., 2014 ).”
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- Authors
- Hróbjartsson, A., Emanuelsson, F., Skou Thomsen, A. S., Hilden, J., & Brorson, S.
- Affiliations
- University of Copenhagen (DK)
- Corresponding author
- Hróbjartsson, Asbjørn
- Venue
- International Journal of Epidemiology
- Publisher
- Oxford University Press (OUP)
- Published
- 2014-05-30
- Volume
- 43
- Issue
- 4
- Pages
- 1272-1283
- ISSN
- 0300-5771 (ISSN-L)
- 1464-3685
- PMC
- PMC4258786
- OpenAlex
- W2147802232
- Cited by
- 462
- References
- 61
- Citations by year
- 2026: 43 · 2025: 41 · 2024: 41 · 2023: 69 · 2022: 36 · 2021: 60 · 2020: 46 · 2019: 42 · 2018: 34 · 2017: 17 · 2016: 22 · 2015: 6 · 2014: 2 · 2013: 2
- FWCI
- 1.98
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- International Journal of Epidemiology (publishedVersion)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Research at the University of Copenhagen (University of Copenhagen) (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Statistics and Probability › Statistical Methods in Clinical Trials
- Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty › Meta-analysis and systematic reviews
- Life Sciences › Neuroscience › Cognitive Neuroscience › Pain Management and Placebo Effect
- Keywords
- treatment effect estimation, patient-reported outcomes, observer-reported outcomes, acupuncture trials, complementary and alternative medicine, attrition, co-interventions
- MeSH terms
- Double-Blind Method, Humans, Bias, Randomized Controlled Trials as Topic, Single-Blind Method
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