Global burden of colorectal cancer in 2020 and 2040: incidence and mortality estimates from GLOBOCAN
Abstract
Objective: Colorectal cancer (CRC) is the third most common cancer worldwide. The geographical and temporal burden of this cancer provides insights into risk factor prevalence and progress in cancer control strategies. We examine the current and future burden of CRC in 185 countries in 2020 and 2040. Methods: Data on CRC cases and deaths were extracted from the GLOBOCAN database for the year 2020. Age-standardised incidence and mortality rates were calculated by sex, country, world region and Human Development Index (HDI) for 185 countries. Age-specific rates were also estimated. The predicted number of cases and deaths in 2040 were calculated based on global demographic projections by HDI. Results: Over 1.9 million new CRC cases and 930 000 deaths were estimated in 2020. Incidence rates were highest in Australia/ New Zealand and European regions (40.6 per 100 000, males) and lowest in several African regions and Southern Asia (4.4 per 100 000, females). Similar patterns were observed for mortality rates, with the highest observed in Eastern Europe (20.2 per 100 000, males) and the lowest in Southern Asia (2.5 per 100 000, females). The burden of CRC is projected to increase to 3.2 million new cases and 1.6 million deaths by 2040 with most cases predicted to occur in high or very high HDI countries. Conclusions: CRC is a highly frequent cancer worldwide, and largely preventable through changes in modifiable risk factors, alongside the detection and removal of precancerous lesions. With increasing rates in transitioning countries and younger adults, there is a pressing need to better understand and act on findings to avert future cases and deaths from the disease.
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By 2040, colorectal cancer mortality is predicted to increase by 73.4%, from 0.9 million deaths in 2020 to more than 1.6 million deaths in 2040.
“By 2040, CRC mortality is predicted to increase by 73.4%, from 0.9 million deaths in 2020 to more than 1.6 million deaths in 2040[3].”
From Risk factors, prevention and screening of colorectal cancer: A rising problem (2025) · cites this paper as [3]
It is predicted that there will be 3.2 million cases of colorectal cancer worldwide in 2040, which is 63% more than in 2020 (2 million cases), provided that the incidence rates remain unchanged.
“It is predicted that there will be 3.2 million cases of CRC worldwide in 2040, which is 63% more than in 2020 (2 million cases), provided that the incidence rates remain unchanged.”
From Risk factors, prevention and screening of colorectal cancer: A rising problem (2025) · cites this paper as [3]
BRAFV600E mutations are present in around 10% of advanced CRC patients and lead to constitutive activation of the MAPK pathway, drug resistance and a poor prognosis.
“BRAFV600E mutations are present in around 10% of advanced CRC patients and lead to constitutive activation of the MAPK pathway, drug resistance and a poor prognosis [1–4].”
From Co-targeting SRC overcomes resistance to BRAF inhibitors in colorectal cancer (2025) · cites this paper as [1]
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Self-citationEstimating the global cancer incidence and mortality in 2018: GLOBOCAN sources and methods
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Risk factors, prevention and screening of colorectal cancer: A rising problem
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“Approximately 2 million people are diagnosed with CRC each year, of which 50% succumb to the disease [148].”
- Authors
- Morgan, E., Arnold, M., Gini, A., Lorenzoni, V, Cabasag, C. J., Laversanne, M., Vignat, J., Ferlay, J., Murphy, N., & Bray, F.
- Affiliations
- Centre international de recherche sur le cancer (FR)
- Scuola Superiore Sant'Anna (IT)
- Cancer Surveillance Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
- Corresponding author
- Morgan, Eileen
- ORCID
- Venue
- Gut
- Publisher
- BMJ
- Published
- 2022-09-08
- Volume
- 72
- Issue
- 2
- Pages
- 338-344
- ISSN
- 0017-5749 (ISSN-L)
- 1468-3288
- OpenAlex
- W4295096627
- Cited by
- 2,429
- References
- 4
- Citations by year
- 2026: 717 · 2025: 872 · 2024: 604 · 2023: 231 · 2022: 5
- FWCI
- 179.23
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Gut (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- CINECA IRIS Institutional Research Information System (Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- World Health Organization
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Oncology › Colorectal Cancer Screening and Detection
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Oncology › Global Cancer Incidence and Screening
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Oncology › Colorectal Cancer Treatments and Studies
- Keywords
- colorectal cancer, global cancer burden, cancer incidence, cancer mortality, Human Development Index, age-standardized rates, cancer prevention, modifiable risk factors, precancerous lesions
- MeSH terms
- Adult, Female, Humans, Male, New Zealand, Risk Factors, Global Health, Colorectal Neoplasms, Incidence, Prevalence
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