Cited by 43Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk ManagementHealthcare Systems and Public HealthHealth Systems, Economic Evaluations, Quality of Life

The DOI matches its Crossref record; 24 of the 26 references it cites were found in a registry or an index; none of the 16 sources its claims cite is checked for support yet.

Gains in life expectancy after elimination of major causes of death: revised estimates taking into account the effect of competing causes.

Open access
Mackenbach, J P, Kunst, A E, Lautenbach, H, Oei, Y B, Bijlsma, F·1999·Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health

Abstract

BACKGROUND: It is generally acknowledged that conventional estimates of the potential number of life years to be gained by elimination of causes of death are too generous. This is because these estimates fail to take into account the fact that those who are saved from the cause are likely to have one or more other conditions ("competing" causes of death), which may increase their risks of dying. It is unknown to what extent this introduces bias in comparisons of life years to be gained between underlying causes of death. The purpose of the study was to assess this bias. DATA AND METHODS: A sample of 5975 death certificates from the Netherlands, 1990, was coded for the presence of diseases that, according to a set of explicit rules, could be regarded as potential causes of death "competing" with the underlying cause. Logistic regression analysis was used to quantify age and sex adjusted differences between four main underlying causes of death (neoplasms, cardiovascular diseases, respiratory diseases, all other diseases) in prevalence of the six most frequent competing causes of death (neoplasms, ischaemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, other cardiovascular diseases, chronic obstructive lung disease, all other diseases). These prevalence differences were then used to revise conventional calculations of gains in life expectancy, by taking them to indicate differences in risk of dying from these competing causes after the underlying cause has been eliminated. RESULTS: The prevalence of competing causes of death is relatively low among persons dying from neoplasms as the underlying cause, about average among persons dying from cardiovascular diseases, and relatively high among persons dying from respiratory diseases. Taking this into account results in substantial decreases of potential life years to be gained by elimination of cardiovascular diseases and respiratory diseases, relative to the number of years to be gained by elimination of neoplasms. Specifically, while according to the conventional calculations the gain in life expectancy by elimination of cardiovascular diseases exceeds that for neoplasms by more than one year, in the revised calculations the number of life years to be gained is approximately equal. CONCLUSIONS: Despite its limitations, mainly relating to reliance on death certificate data, this study suggests that conventional estimates of differences between underlying causes of death in life years to be gained by elimination are seriously biased by ignoring the effects of competing causes. Specifically, the relative impacts of eliminating cardiovascular diseases and respiratory diseases, as compared with eliminating neoplasms, seem to be overestimated. The implications are discussed.

Overview

AI snapshot

Written from the paper’s full text.

TL;DR

Conventional cause-elimination life-table estimates overstate gains from eliminating cardiovascular and respiratory diseases relative to neoplasms because they ignore competing causes. Using 1990 Netherlands death-certificate data, revised estimates made cardiovascular disease and neoplasms nearly equally important in life years gained.

Key findings

  • In a sample of 5,975 death certificates, 2,762 competing causes were identified, corresponding to 46.2 competing causes per 100 deaths; prevalence of ischaemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, and other cardiovascular disease varied strongly by underlying cause and was usually lowest among deaths from neoplasms.
  • Conventional estimates of life years gained by elimination were: neoplasms 3.83 years for men and 3.38 for women; cardiovascular diseases 4.93 for men and 4.52 for women; respiratory diseases 0.82 for men and 0.57 for women; other diseases 2.51 for men and 2.76 for women.
  • Revised estimates accounting for competing causes were: cardiovascular diseases 4.02 years for men and 3.37 for women; respiratory diseases 0.41 for men and 0.28 for women; other diseases 1.91 for men and 1.92 for women; neoplasms remained the reference at 3.83 for men and 3.38 for women.
  • The conventional advantage of cardiovascular diseases over neoplasms fell from more than one year, or approximately 30%, to 5% among men and 0% among women; sensitivity analyses with convergence or contributing causes modified the estimates but the overall conclusion held.

Methods

  • A sample of 5,975 death certificates from deaths in the Netherlands in 1990 was stratified by four broad underlying cause groups—neoplasms (30% of sample), cardiovascular diseases (30%), respiratory diseases (20%), and other diseases (20%)—and by five-year age group weighted by life years lost; ill-defined and external causes were excluded.
  • Competing causes were coded if they were apparently independent of the underlying cause, chronic, and had the potential to become a new underlying cause; age- and sex-adjusted odds ratios were estimated by logistic regression with neoplasms as the reference category.
  • Cause-elimination life-table calculations used Chiang’s formula; revised calculations used prevalence odds ratios as a proxy for mortality risk ratios, with sensitivity analyses for convergence of excess mortality and for contributing causes.

Limitations

  • Stated: the study relied on death certificate data, which are not a perfect source for underlying or competing causes; death certificates were not designed to elicit competing causes, WHO guidelines discourage their notification, and completion is frequently suboptimal.
  • Stated: the revised calculations assume that increased death rates among those with a competing cause remain increased for the rest of life; the authors consider this unlikely and use a sensitivity analysis assuming a 10% reduction of excess mortality per additional year of life after being saved, implying a 65% reduction over 10 years.
  • Stated and evident: co-occurrence may represent a contributing rather than competing cause, and the maximum-effect assumption for contributing causes almost certainly overestimates the importance of cardiovascular diseases; because prevalence among the dead cannot be compared with the total population, only relative differences between underlying causes can be adjusted, not absolute estimates.

Model-written summary. Check it against the paper before relying on it.

Integrity signals

Registry

Crossref · 10.1136/jech.53.1.32

Cites

24 of 24 references verified0 citation errors · 0 not checkable

Statistics

Nothing to recompute.

Verification

Claims the paper makes

0 of 16 cited sources checked · 0 supported · 0 flagged

  • Findingnone given

    According to conventional calculations, gains in life expectancy after elimination of cardiovascular diseases exceed those of neoplasms by more than one year, or approximately 30%.

    “According to the conventional calculations, gains in life expectancy after elimination of cardiovascular diseases exceed those of neoplasms by more than one year, or approximately 30%.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Findingreasoning

    Respiratory diseases and other diseases fall even farther behind neoplasms in revised calculations than in conventional calculations.

    “Respiratory diseases and other diseases fall even farther behind neoplasms than in the conventional calculations.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
    • The authors state this as an assumption: The mortality quotients n Q x for the general population also apply to those saved from dying from cause A.
    • The authors state this as an assumption: The prevalence odds ratios for C obtained in the regression analyses can be used as a proxy of the mortality risk ratios for C.
    • The authors state this as an assumption: The case fatality of C does not differ between patients dying (saved) from A and those dying (saved) from B.
  • Findingown data

    The conventional calculation method suggests that elimination of neoplasms as an underlying cause would result in 3.83 life years gained among men and 3.38 life years gained among women.

    “The conventional calculation method suggests that elimination of neoplasms as an underlying cause would result in 3.83 life years to be gained among men, and 3.38 life years to be gained among women.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Findingown data

    There is no clear variation between underlying causes of death in the prevalence of either neoplasms or chronic obstructive lung disease as competing causes of death.

    “There is no clear variation between underlying causes of death in the prevalence of either neoplasms or chronic obstructive lung disease as competing causes of death.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Findingown data

    The prevalence of ischaemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, and other cardiovascular diseases as competing causes differs strongly by underlying cause of death.

    “The prevalence of ischaemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, and other cardiovascular diseases, however, diVers strongly by underlying cause.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • The quote only partly states this claim. 2
  • It may state two separate claims as one. 2
  • Probably not a substantial claim. 1
  • The quote only partly states this claim.

    Findingown data

    Elimination of cardiovascular diseases results in a larger gain in life expectancy than elimination of neoplasms: 4.93 years among men and 4.52 years among women under conventional calculation.

    “Elimination of cardiovascular diseases results in a larger gain in life expectancy: 4.93 years among men and 4.52 years among women.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • It may state two separate claims as one.

    Findingown data

    In the sample of 5975 death certificates, 2762 competing causes were identified, corresponding to 46.2 competing causes per 100 deaths.

    “In the sample of 5975 death certificates, 2762 competing causes were identified.This corresponds to 46.2 competing causes per 100 deaths.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • The quote only partly states this claim.

    Findingown data

    Elimination of respiratory diseases and other diseases results in smaller gains in life expectancy than elimination of neoplasms under conventional calculation.

    “Elimination of respiratory diseases and other diseases results in smaller gains in life expectancy.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • It may state two separate claims as one.

    Findingown data

    There is substantial variation in the prevalence of all other diseases as a competing cause by underlying cause of death; the two most frequent competing causes in this category are diabetes mellitus and senile dementia.

    “There is also substantial variation in prevalence of all other diseases-a heterogeneous category within which the two most frequent competing causes are diabetes mellitus and senile dementia.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim.

    Premisecitation

    Conventional cause-elimination life table calculations rest on the assumption that those saved from dying because of the eliminated cause have risks of dying from non-eliminated causes equal to the average risks of dying from these causes in the total population.

    “The main assumption on which cause-elimination life table calculations rest is, that those who are saved from dying because of the eliminated cause (for example, ischaemic heart disease) have risks of dying from non-eliminated causes that are equal to the average risks of dying from these causes as observed in the total population.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 4 sources checked
    • cites [1] Chiang CL. Life table and mortality analysis. Geneva: World Health Organization, 1978.
    • cites [6] Chiang CL. Competing risks in mortality analysis. Annu Rev Publ Health 1991;12:281–307. source
    • cites [7] Cornfield J. The estimation of the probability of developing a disease in the presence of competing risks. Am J Public Health 1957;47:601–7. source
    • cites [8] Prentice RL, Kalbfleisch JD, Peterson AV, et al. The analysis of failure times in the presence of competing risks. Biometrics 1978;34:541–54. source
5 of 5
  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    The mortality quotients n Q x for the general population also apply to those saved from dying from cause A.

    “The crucial assumption in the standard cause elimination life table is that the mortality quotients n Q x for the general population also apply to those saved from dying from cause A.”
  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    The prevalence odds ratios for C obtained in the regression analyses can be used as a proxy of the mortality risk ratios for C.

    “The main assumption underlying this approach is, that the prevalence odds ratios for C as obtained in the regression analyses (see above) can be used as a proxy of the mortality risk ratios for C.”
  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    The case fatality of C does not differ between patients dying (saved) from A and those dying (saved) from B.

    “This is likely to be valid, as long as the case fatality of C will not diVer between patients dying (saved) from A and those dying (saved) from B.”
  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    The increased death rate among those with a competing cause present at the time they are saved from dying from a specific underlying cause of death remains increased during the rest of their lives.

    “Secondly, an important assumption on which our (revised) calculations are based, is that the increased death rate among those with a competing cause present at the time they are saved from dying from a specific underlying cause of death, remains increased during the rest of their lives.”
  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    Imperfections in death certificate data are not different between underlying causes of death.

    “Still, we see no reason to assume that these imperfections are diVerent between underlying causes of death and therefore, data on other conditions mentioned on the death certificate can at least be used to assess the bias present in comparisons between underlying causes of death of life years to be gained by elimination.”
  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    Competing causes that are part of the same broad group will be eliminated with the underlying cause.

    “In the case of elimination of such a broad group, only competing causes that are in another broad group will be assumed to remain; competing causes that are part of the same broad group will be eliminated with the underlying cause.”
6 of 6

Self-check

Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.

Each contradiction between two passages listed here was confirmed by an independent check.

  • Key point reverses which group has more competing causes

    Major

    The key point says competing causes are more prevalent among people dying from neoplasms than among those dying from cardiovascular diseases. The discussion states the opposite, a comparison central to the paper's conclusion.

1 of 1

Citations

Cites

Flagged first, then by citations

2 of the 26 references couldn’t be matched to a known paper.

Research works printed but not linked: 1

  1. Buich D. Automatic coding of causes of death. Popul Trends 1993;73:36–8.

Cited by

Sorted by citations

Metadata

Authors
Mackenbach, J. P., Kunst, A. E., Lautenbach, H., Oei, Y. B., & Bijlsma, F.
Affiliations
Erasmus University Rotterdam (NL)
Venue
Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health
Publisher
BMJ
Published
1999-01
Volume
53
Issue
1
Pages
32-37
ISSN
  • 0141-7681 (ISSN-L)
  • 0143-005X
  • 1470-2738
OpenAlex
W2025959073
Cited by
43
References
26
Citations by year
2026: 3 · 2025: 1 · 2023: 1 · 2021: 2 · 2020: 2 · 2018: 4 · 2017: 2 · 2015: 1 · 2014: 4 · 2012: 1
FWCI
4.99
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Locations
  • Journal of Epidemiology & Community Health (publishedVersion)
  • Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (publishedVersion)
  • PubMed Central (publishedVersion)
  • PubMed (publishedVersion)
  • Pure Amsterdam UMC (publishedVersion)
  • EUR Research Repository (Erasmus University Rotterdam) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
  • Data Archiving and Networked Services (DANS) (submittedVersion)
  • RePub (Erasmus University Rotterdam) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
  • University of Groningen research database (University of Groningen / Centre for Information Technology) (submittedVersion)
Topics
  • Social Sciences › Demography › Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management
  • Health Sciences › Medicine › Epidemiology › Healthcare Systems and Public Health
  • Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Health Systems, Economic Evaluations, Quality of Life
Keywords
life expectancy, competing risk of death, underlying cause of death, neoplasms, cardiovascular disease, respiratory diseases, death certificate coding, ischemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease
MeSH terms
Adolescent, Adult, Age Factors, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Cause of Death, Child, Child, Preschool, Female, Humans, Infant, Infant, Newborn, Life Expectancy, Male, Middle Aged, Netherlands, Sex Factors, Prevalence, Logistic Models

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