The DOI matches its Crossref record; 129 of the 129 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
The China Shock: Learning from Labor-Market Adjustment to Large Changes in Trade
Open accessAbstract
China's emergence as a great economic power has induced an epochal shift in patterns of world trade. Simultaneously, it has challenged much of the received empirical wisdom about how labor markets adjust to trade shocks. Alongside the heralded consumer benefits of expanded trade are substantial adjustment costs and distributional consequences. These impacts are most visible in the local labor markets in which the industries exposed to foreign competition are concentrated. Adjustment in local labor markets is remarkably slow, with wages and labor-force participation rates remaining depressed and unemployment rates remaining elevated for at least a full decade after the China trade shock commences. Exposed workers experience greater job churning and reduced lifetime income. At the national level, employment has fallen in the US industries more exposed to import competition, as expected, but offsetting employment gains in other industries have yet to materialize. Better understanding when and where trade is costly, and how and why it may be beneficial, is a key item on the research agenda for trade and labor economists.
Overview
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Verification
Claims the paper makes
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
In the citing paper
“As documented by Autor, Dorn, and Hanson (2016), all eight comparison countries used for the instrumental variables analysis witnessed import growth from China in at least 343 of the 397 total set of four-digit SIC manufacturing industries.”
From Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure (2020) · cites this paper as Autor, Dorn, and Hanson (2016)
Citations
Cites
The Impact of Trade on Intra-Industry Reallocations and Aggregate Industry Productivity
Melitz, M. J. (2003) · Econometrica · doi:10.1111/1468-0262.00467 · Cited by 12,309
Technology, Geography, and Trade
Eaton, J., & Kortum, S. (2002) · Econometrica · doi:10.1111/1468-0262.00352 · Cited by 4,485
The China Syndrome: Local Labor Market Effects of Import Competition in the United States
Autor, D. H., Dorn, D., & Hanson, G. H. (2013) · American Economic Review · doi:10.1257/aer.103.6.2121 · Cited by 4,459
Self-citationThe growth of low-skill service jobs and the polarization of the US labor market
Autor, D. H., & Dorn, D. (2013) · American Economic Review · doi:10.1257/aer.103.5.1553 · Cited by 3,824
Self-citationThe Network Origins of Aggregate Fluctuations
Acemoğlu, D., Carvalho, V. M., Ozdaglar, A., & Tahbaz-Salehi, A. (2012) · Econometrica · doi:10.3982/ecta9623 · Cited by 2,319
Creative accounting or creative destruction? Firm-level productivity growth in Chinese manufacturing
Brandt, L., Biesebroeck, J. V., & Zhang, Y. (2011) · Journal of Development Economics · doi:10.1016/j.jdeveco.2011.02.002 · Cited by 2,313
Trading Tasks: A Simple Theory of Offshoring
Grossman, G. M., & Rossi-Hansberg, E. (2008) · American Economic Review · doi:10.1257/aer.98.5.1978 · Cited by 2,262
Changes in the Wage Structure and Earnings Inequality
Katz, L. F., & Autor, D. (1999) · Handbook of labour economics · doi:10.1016/s1573-4463(99)03007-2 · Cited by 2,085
Self-citationIntegration of Trade and Disintegration of Production in the Global Economy
Feenstra, R. C. (1998) · The Journal of Economic Perspectives · doi:10.1257/jep.12.4.31 · Cited by 2,070
Blanchard, O. J., Katz, L. F., Hall, R. E., & Eichengreen, B. J. (1992) · Brookings Papers on Economic Activity · doi:10.2307/2534556 · Cited by 1,762
Research works printed but not linked: 7
- Anders G. 2014. How we saw the future in 1989. The Wall Street Journal , July 8, p. R13
- Ashournia D. 2015. Labor market effects when mobility is costly . Discuss. Pap. 751, Dep. Econ., Oxford Univ., Oxford, UK
- Bhagwati J, 1989, Protectionism
- 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2007.04.005 · DOI
- Donoso V, 2014, Reg. Stud., 49, 46
- Krugman P, 1997, J. Econ. Lit., 35, 113
- Yagan D. 2014. Moving to opportunity? Migratory insurance over the Great Recession . Presented at NBER Conf. Tax Policy Econ., Cambridge, MA
Cited by
Sorted by citations
Items 901–999 of 999
The Moral Force of Exploitation
Risse, M., & Wollner, G. (2019) · doi:10.1093/oso/9780198837411.003.0006
수출입과 기업의 노동수요(Trade and Labor Demand of Firms)Preprint
Eum, J., Park, J.-H., & Choi, M. J. (2018) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.3284878
Industrial Change, the Boundary of the Firm, and Racial Employment SegregationPreprint
Ferguson, J., & Koning, R. M. (2020) · OSF Preprints (OSF Preprints)
Gumata, N., & Ndou, E. (2019) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-3-030-30884-1_20
Arbeitsmarktpolitik und Wandel
Püschel, J. (2020) · Springer Reference Sozialwissenschaften · doi:10.1007/978-3-658-04125-0_28-2
Does globalization produce populist parties?
Davis, A. P., & Bergesen, A. J. (2020) · Routledge eBooks · doi:10.4324/9780429295089-10
The Effect of Chinese Imports on European Innovation Activities in the Medium-Long Term Period
Suatoni, M., Xu, K., & Cudjoe, D. A. (2020) · European Journal of Business and Management · doi:10.7176/ejbm/12-12-03
Ozturk, M., & Aras, O. N. (2020) · doi:10.31039/jomeino.2020.4.1.6
Hoekstra, R. (2019) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/9781108608558.002
International trade and the beliefs in hard work
Asuyama, Y. (2020) · Applied Economics Letters · doi:10.1080/13504851.2020.1785618
“In the US, however, consistent with the ‘China trade shock’ literature, IML negatively affects BHW, although the result is only significant for HBWS.”
BackgroundInfluentialKlaus Prettner, A., & Bloom, D. E. (2020) · Elsevier eBooks · doi:10.1016/b978-0-12-818028-0.00002-8
Voter choice and issue salience: environmental preferences and the 2016 Presidential election
Palmer, C. E., & Weinhold, D. M. (2020) · London School of Economics and Political Science Research Online (London School of Economics and Political Science)
Despairing Communities in the United StatesPreprint
Islam, T. M. T., & Tiemann, T. K. (2020) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.3515411
Conclusion: Mobilizing Change-Makers
Fleurbaey, M., Bouin, O., Djelic, M., Kanbur, R., Nowotny, H., Reis, E., & Sen, A. (2018) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/9781108344128.012
Introduction: The Future is in Our Hands
Fleurbaey, M., Bouin, O., Djelic, M., Kanbur, R., Nowotny, H., Reis, E., & Sen, A. (2018) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/9781108344128.003
What Does GDP Measure (And What Not)?
Hoekstra, R. (2019) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/9781108608558.003 · Cited by 1
International Differences in the Effect of Skills on Job Mobility: A Schumpeterian PerspectivePreprint
Stijepic, D. (2019) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.3466370
Marginalised Areas as a Public Policy Concern
Matsaganis, M. (2020) · Research for development · doi:10.1007/978-3-030-44003-9_4
Püschel, J. (2020) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-3-658-23845-2_28
The Domestic Political-Economy of the WTO Crisis: Lessons for Preserving Multilateralism
Bowen, R., & Broz, J. L. (2020) · National Bureau of Economic Research · doi:10.3386/w27914
Welfens, P. J. J. (2020) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-3-658-30158-3_3
Cooperación e integración económica internacional entre China y Colombia
Espinoza, A. E., & Torres, B. R. (2020) · Cadernos PROLAM/USP · doi:10.11606/issn.1676-6288.prolam.2020.169824
The Political Consequences of Household Wealth Shocks: Evidence from ItalyPreprint
Angioni, G., Chwieroth, J. M., Hopkin, J., & Walter, A. (2020) · doi:10.33774/apsa-2020-xx1bk
What Is the Impact of Chinese Import Penetration on the South African Manufacturing Sector?
Gumata, N., & Ndou, E. (2020) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-3-030-55148-3_5
Whither the TPP? Political Economy of Ratification and Effect on Trade Architecture in East AsiaPreprint
Choi, B. (2016) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.2848836
Skill Overshooting in Job Training With the Trade Adjustment Assistance Program
Barnette, J., & Park, J. (2021) · Economic Development Quarterly · doi:10.1177/0891242420984843
“There is a particular emphasis on job training in the TAA, based on the idea that import-competing tasks are being replaced by foreign competition at an increasing rate (Acemoglu et al., 2016; Autor et al., 2016), rendering the skill sets possessed by the TAA-eligible workers practically obsolete in the United States.”
BackgroundThe Political Economy of Trade and International Labor MobilityPreprint
Galiani, S., & Torrens, G. (2018) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.3230432
The importance of large shocks to return predictability
Díaz, J. D., Duarte, D., Gil, H. G., Bravo, A. M., & Truffa, S. (2021) · Pacific-Basin Finance Journal · doi:10.1016/j.pacfin.2021.101518
Essays on the Impact of Renegotiating Trade Agreements
Exton, O. (2020) · Apollo (University of Cambridge) · doi:10.17863/cam.62851
Emotional Flashpoints of Populism and Trade
Jones, K. A. (2021) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/oso/9780190086350.003.0003
Populism and Trade Around the World
Jones, K. A. (2021) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/oso/9780190086350.003.0007
Shaping inequality: Progressive taxation under human capital accumulationPreprint
Akbari, D. A., & Fischer, T. (2020) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.3742731
The Future Belongs to Globalized Societies
Jones, K. A. (2021) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/oso/9780190086350.003.0009
Trade and the Roots of Disaffection
Jones, K. A. (2021) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/oso/9780190086350.003.0001
Trade as a Source of Populist Conflict
Jones, K. A. (2021) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/oso/9780190086350.003.0002
The China trade shock and the gender wage gap in India: A district-level analysis
Saha, K. (2024) · Indian Economic Review · doi:10.1007/s41775-024-00223-1
“Following Autor et al (2016), this paper follows an Instrumental Variables (IV) strategy to overcome this problem of identification.”
InfluentialAssessing the Cost of Populism to Global Trade
Jones, K. A. (2021) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/oso/9780190086350.003.0008
Spoils of war: Trade shocks and segmented labor markets in Spain during WWI
Fuchs, S. (2021) · doi:10.29338/wp2021-14
“How important is the mobility of factors within countries to understand the economic and welfare consequences of a trade shock? In recent years, a rapidly growing literature has documented the heterogeneous incidence and effect of trade shocks across local labor markets within countries (Autor et al., 2016; Topalova,…”
Outsourcing in the United States and Europe
Drobak, J. N. (2021) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/oso/9780197578957.003.0006
Legitimization of Greed—Heartbreak to Workers
Drobak, J. N. (2021) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/oso/9780197578957.003.0007
Global Successes and Looming Catastrophes
Fleurbaey, M., Bouin, O., Djelic, M., Kanbur, R., Nowotny, H., Reis, E., & Sen, A. (2018) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/9781108344128.004
Belief Systems and Confirmation Bias
Drobak, J. N. (2021) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/oso/9780197578957.003.0008
Lack of Competition in U.S. Markets
Drobak, J. N. (2021) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/oso/9780197578957.003.0003
The Theory of Competitive Markets
Drobak, J. N. (2021) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/oso/9780197578957.003.0002
Drobak, J. N. (2021) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/oso/9780197578957.003.0004
Can China Be Less Dependent on Exports?
Herrala, R. (2021) · Palgrave studies of internationalization in emerging markets · doi:10.1007/978-3-030-69812-6_2
From the Welfare State to the Emancipating State
Fleurbaey, M., Bouin, O., Djelic, M., Kanbur, R., Nowotny, H., Reis, E., & Sen, A. (2018) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/9781108344128.010
Work and Workers in International Markets
Ahlquist, J. S. (2021) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/oxfordhb/9780198793519.013.15
Designing an International Economic Order: A Research AgendaPreprint
Broz, J. L., & Bowen, T. R. (2020) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.3595696
“Second, the agreement was incomplete because it did not (and could not) anticipate China’s entry into the WTO in 2001, and the subsequent import surge that decimated manufacturing industries and local labor markets in the United States (Autor et al., 2016; Acemoglu et al., 2016).”
In Search of a New “Third Way”
Fleurbaey, M., Bouin, O., Djelic, M., Kanbur, R., Nowotny, H., Reis, E., & Sen, A. (2018) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/9781108344128.008
The Expanding Circle of Respect and Dignity
Fleurbaey, M., Bouin, O., Djelic, M., Kanbur, R., Nowotny, H., Reis, E., & Sen, A. (2018) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/9781108344128.006
Fleurbaey, M., Bouin, O., Djelic, M., Kanbur, R., Nowotny, H., Reis, E., & Sen, A. (2018) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/9781108344128.011
Three Essays on Trade and Local Labor Markets
Sharma, S. (2017) · doi:10.33915/etd.6621
Offshoring, Welfare, and Flexibility in the Context of US Protectionism
Agnese, P., & Hromcová, J. (2021) · International Economic Journal · doi:10.1080/10168737.2021.1971281
Elson, A. (2021) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-3-030-83519-4_6
Do Workers Share in Firm Success? Pass-Through Estimates for New ZealandPreprint
Allan, C., & Maré, D. C. (2021) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.3954537
“A seminal contribu on is Autor et al. (2020), which examines the role of ‘superstar’ firms in explaining the decline in the US LIS.”
BackgroundGlobalizzazione: e la popolazione?
Salvini, M. S. (2021) · Studi e saggi · doi:10.36253/978-88-5518-439-7
Foreign Business Exposure, Policy Uncertainties and Capital Flight from Home: Evidence from ChinaPreprint
Hu, X., & Li, D. (2021) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.3904653
“…for Chinese firms to trade with foreign firms, and the Chinese government’s decision to join WTO can be considered as an exogenous shock that motivates Chinese firms to join the international market (Autor et al. 2016; Pierce and Schott 2016; Gutiérrez and Philippon 2017; Defever et al. 2020).”
Eichengreen, B. J., Csontó, B., & El-Ganainy, A. (2021) · doi:10.1093/oso/9780192846938.003.0008
“Autor et al. (2016) is probably the most influential such study.”
BackgroundBontadini, F., Evangelista, R., Meliciani, V., & Savona, M. (2021) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.3975956
Hoekstra, R. (2019) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/9781108608558.005
Global Economic Accounts (GECA)
Hoekstra, R. (2019) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/9781108608558.008
(2020) · Emerald Group Publishing Limited eBooks · doi:10.1108/978-1-83982-560-620200017
Annex: Beyond-GDP Milestones and Measurement Systems
Hoekstra, R. (2019) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/9781108608558.012
François, J., & Hoekman, B. M. (2019) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/9781108751698.014
Yeung, R. (2020) · doi:10.1002/9781119699163.biblio
Replacing the Most Influential Indicator in the World
Hoekstra, R. (2019) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/9781108608558.001
Hoekstra, R. (2019) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/9781108608558.015
Táíwò, O. (2022) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/oso/9780197508893.003.0006
Táíwò, O. (2022) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/oso/9780197508893.003.0002 · Cited by 1
The political economy of trade and international labour mobility
Galiani, S., & Torrens, G. (2021) · Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d économique · doi:10.1111/caje.12568
Lagging Places: Missed Opportunities, Left-Behind People
Grover, A., Lall, S. V., & Maloney, W. F. (2022) · World Bank, Washington, DC eBooks · doi:10.1596/978-1-4648-1670-3_ch5
External competition flattens the Phillips Curve
Crespo, A. C., Solanes, J. G., & Flores, F. T. (2022) · Revista de Economía Mundial · doi:10.33776/rem.v0i60.4962
Roos, M. W. M., & Hoffart, F. M. (2020) · Palgrave studies in sustainability, environment and macroeconomics · doi:10.1007/978-3-030-48423-1_7
Hoekstra, R. (2019) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/9781108608558.014
Subnational Inequality DivergencePreprint
VanHeuvelen, T. (2021) · doi:10.31235/osf.io/tf37h
Inputs, networks and quality-upgrading: Evidence from China in IndiaPreprint
Copestake, A. (2021) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.3966737
Artuç, E., Lopez-Acevedo, G., Robertson, R. E., & Samaan, D. (2019) · World Bank, Washington, DC eBooks · doi:10.1596/978-1-4648-1248-4_ch3
Drobak, J. N. (2021) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/oso/9780197578957.003.0009
渡邉, 真. (2021) · Japanese Journal of Comparative Economics · doi:10.5760/jjce.58.2_31
Hoekstra, R. (2019) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/9781108608558.013
van der Weide, R., & Narayan, A. (2021) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/oso/9780198863960.003.0011
Inequality SnowballingPreprint
Liscow, Z. D., & Paez, D. G. (2019) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.3327460
François, J., & Hoekman, B. M. (2019) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/9781108751698.015
Drobak, J. N. (2021) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/oso/9780197578957.003.0001
How Promise Breaking In Trade Rhetoric Shapes Attitudes Toward Bilateral US-China Trade CooperationPreprint
Schweinberger, T. (2021) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.3807108
Hart, D. M. (2021) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.3905529
Drobak, J. N. (2021) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/oso/9780197578957.003.0010
Fairbrother, M. (2019) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/oso/9780190635459.003.0008
A Quantitative Trade Model with UnemploymentPreprint
Lee, K. Y. (2019) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.3360942
Does U.S. CEO connectedness in China matter? Evidence from Chinese import penetration
Peng, S.-C. (2022) · Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting · doi:10.1007/s11156-022-01070-y
Power Shifts, Emigration, and Population SortingPreprint
Aklin, M., & Eichenauer, V. Z. (2022) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.4123825
Changing Human Capital Choices in the United States: Impact of Trade ExposurePreprint
Ukil, P. (2022) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.4118947
Temporary Employment, Labor Flexibility and InternationalizationPreprint
Ge, Y. (2022) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.4113827
(2021) · Armand Colin eBooks · doi:10.3917/arco.paqui.2021.01.0175
(2021) · Presses de Sciences Po eBooks · doi:10.3917/scpo.fonta.2021.01.0113
Hiwatari, M. (2022) · Japanese Journal of Comparative Economics · doi:10.5760/jjce.59.2_11
Metadata
- Authors
- Autor, D. H., Dorn, D., & Hanson, G. H.
- Affiliations
- National Bureau of Economic Research (US)
- University of Zurich (CH)
- Venue
- Annual Review of Economics
- Publisher
- Annual Reviews
- Published
- 2016-10-31
- Volume
- 8
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 205-240
- ISSN
- 1941-1383 (ISSN-L)
- 1941-1391
- OpenAlex
- W1906461530
- Cited by
- 1,305
- References
- 129
- Citations by year
- 2026: 103 · 2025: 196 · 2024: 127 · 2023: 140 · 2022: 122 · 2021: 153 · 2020: 123 · 2019: 168 · 2018: 96 · 2017: 49 · 2016: 21
- FWCI
- 30.90
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- Annual Review of Economics (publishedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- DSpace@MIT (Massachusetts Institute of Technology) (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc-sa)
- Econstor (Econstor) (submittedVersion)
- Zurich Open Repository and Archive (University of Zurich) (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › General Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Global trade and economics
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Labor market dynamics and wage inequality
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Historical Economic and Social Studies
- Keywords
- labor market adjustment, import competition, trade shocks, local labor markets, unemployment, wages, labor force participation, lifetime income, distributional effects of trade, trade costs, US-China trade
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review