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The China Shock: Learning from Labor-Market Adjustment to Large Changes in Trade
Open accessAbstract
China's emergence as a great economic power has induced an epochal shift in patterns of world trade. Simultaneously, it has challenged much of the received empirical wisdom about how labor markets adjust to trade shocks. Alongside the heralded consumer benefits of expanded trade are substantial adjustment costs and distributional consequences. These impacts are most visible in the local labor markets in which the industries exposed to foreign competition are concentrated. Adjustment in local labor markets is remarkably slow, with wages and labor-force participation rates remaining depressed and unemployment rates remaining elevated for at least a full decade after the China trade shock commences. Exposed workers experience greater job churning and reduced lifetime income. At the national level, employment has fallen in the US industries more exposed to import competition, as expected, but offsetting employment gains in other industries have yet to materialize. Better understanding when and where trade is costly, and how and why it may be beneficial, is a key item on the research agenda for trade and labor economists.
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“As documented by Autor, Dorn, and Hanson (2016), all eight comparison countries used for the instrumental variables analysis witnessed import growth from China in at least 343 of the 397 total set of four-digit SIC manufacturing industries.”
From Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure (2020) · cites this paper as Autor, Dorn, and Hanson (2016)
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“Such policies have made China become the third-largest exporter in the world and allowed it to play a role in global manufacturing comparable to that of the USA, Germany, and Japan [48], [56].”
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“The effect is highest over 2007-2012 sample and second in the 2001-2006 sample, consistent with Autor et al.’s (2016) China shock hypothesis.”
ResultModelos de estado desarrollista
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“Autor, D., D. Dorn y G. Hanson (2016), “The China shock: learning from labour market adjustment to large changes in trade”, Annual Review of Economics, vol. 8, N° 1, Annual Reviews [en línea] https://www. annualreviews.org/doi/full/10.1146/annurev-economics-080315-015041.”
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“More recently, the work of David Autor et al. (2013; 2016; 2017) have documented the pernicious effects of the so-called ‘China shock’ on the manufacturing capabilities at the state and local level.”
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“…trade has been associated with economic growth, productivity improvements, and technological innovation (Helpman, 2011); but it has also been linked to labor market polarization (Autor et al., 2016), the emergence of pollution havens (Berry et al., 2021), and the rise of populism (Rodrik, 2018).”
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“While industrial efficiency modestly improved, surging residential and commercial growth largely offset these gains in interior provinces (Autor et al., 2016).”
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License to Layoff? Unemployment Insurance and the Moral Cost of Layoffs
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“A growing body of empirical evidence documents that import competition from China is responsible for a significant share of the decline in U.S. manufacturing employment (Autor et al. 2016).”
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Economic complexity and fertility: insights from a low fertility country
Innocenti, N., Vignoli, D., & Lazzeretti, L. (2021) · Regional Studies · doi:10.1080/00343404.2021.1896695 · Cited by 28
“Recent empirical analysis – spearheaded by Autor et al. (2013, 2014, 2016), Dauth et al. (2014) and Bloom et al. (2016) – has shown how globalization has affected such individual labour market outcomes as unemployment, labour-force participation and job vacancies.”
Steiner, N. D., & Harms, P. (2021) · Journal of European Public Policy · doi:10.1080/13501763.2021.2002925 · Cited by 36
“Our focus on imports from China is motivated by the consideration that rapidly increasing imports from China caused significant structural economic change in many developed countries (Autor et al., 2013, 2016).”
BackgroundThe Impact of the Great Recession on Student Achievement: Evidence from Population DataPreprint
Shores, K., & Steinberg, M. P. (2017) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.3026151 · Cited by 28
Stantcheva, S. (2022) · National Bureau of Economic Research · doi:10.3386/w30040 · Cited by 27
“It is often thought that the gains to consumers are diffuse and widespread, while the losses to workers are large and concentrated (see, among others, Autor (2018), Autor et al. (2016) and Broda and Weinstein (2006)).”
BackgroundU.S.–China trade war and corporate reallocation: Evidence from Chinese listed companies
Ding, H., Koedijk, K. C. G., Qi, T., & Shen, Y. (2022) · World Economy · doi:10.1111/twec.13308 · Cited by 27
Foot, R., & King, A. (2019) · China International Strategy Review · doi:10.1007/s42533-019-00005-y · Cited by 27
Decomposing the Effect of Trade on the Gender Wage Gap
Benguria, F., & Ederington, J. (2017) · Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d économique · doi:10.1111/caje.12668 · Cited by 29
Metadata
- Authors
- Autor, D. H., Dorn, D., & Hanson, G. H.
- Affiliations
- National Bureau of Economic Research (US)
- University of Zurich (CH)
- Venue
- Annual Review of Economics
- Publisher
- Annual Reviews
- Published
- 2016-10-31
- Volume
- 8
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 205-240
- ISSN
- 1941-1383 (ISSN-L)
- 1941-1391
- OpenAlex
- W1906461530
- Cited by
- 1,305
- References
- 129
- Citations by year
- 2026: 103 · 2025: 196 · 2024: 127 · 2023: 140 · 2022: 122 · 2021: 153 · 2020: 123 · 2019: 168 · 2018: 96 · 2017: 49 · 2016: 21
- FWCI
- 30.90
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- Annual Review of Economics (publishedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- DSpace@MIT (Massachusetts Institute of Technology) (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc-sa)
- Econstor (Econstor) (submittedVersion)
- Zurich Open Repository and Archive (University of Zurich) (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › General Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Global trade and economics
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Labor market dynamics and wage inequality
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Historical Economic and Social Studies
- Keywords
- labor market adjustment, import competition, trade shocks, local labor markets, unemployment, wages, labor force participation, lifetime income, distributional effects of trade, trade costs, US-China trade
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