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Cited by 4,459Global trade and economicsLabor market dynamics and wage inequalityHistorical Economic and Social Studies

The China Syndrome: Local Labor Market Effects of Import Competition in the United States

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Autor, David H, Dorn, David, Hanson, Gordon H·2013·American Economic Review
DOI 10.1257/aer.103.6.2121
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Abstract

We analyze the effect of rising Chinese import competition between 1990 and 2007 on US local labor markets, exploiting cross-market variation in import exposure stemming from initial differences in industry specialization and instrumenting for US imports using changes in Chinese imports by other high-income countries. Rising imports cause higher unemployment, lower labor force participation, and reduced wages in local labor markets that house import-competing manufacturing industries. In our main specification, import competition explains one-quarter of the contemporaneous aggregate decline in US manufacturing employment. Transfer benefits payments for unemployment, disability, retirement, and healthcare also rise sharply in more trade-exposed labor markets. (JEL E24, F14, F16, J23, J31, L60, O47, R12, R23)

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  • Trade integration with China was a particularly salient contributor to the decline in U.S. manufacturing employment in the 1990s and 2000s.

    “Autor, Dorn and Hanson (2013) and Pierce and Schott (2016) -further singled out trade integration with China as a particularly salient contributor to the decline in U.S. manufacturing employment in the 1990s and 2000s.”

    From De-Globalisation? Global Value Chains in the Post-COVID-19 Age (2020) · cites this paper as Autor, Dorn and Hanson (2013)

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Authors
Autor, D. H., Dorn, D., & Hanson, G. H.
Affiliations
  • Massachusetts Institute of Technology (US)
  • Centro de Estudios Monetarios y Financieros (ES)
  • National Bureau of Economic Research (US)
ORCID
Venue
American Economic Review
Publisher
American Economic Association
Published
2013-10-01
Volume
103
Issue
6
Pages
2121-2168
ISSN
0002-8282 (ISSN-L)
DOI
10.1257/aer.103.6.2121
OpenAlex
W2097916756
Cited by
4,459
References
0
Citations by year
2026: 489 · 2025: 497 · 2024: 439 · 2023: 362 · 2022: 401 · 2021: 399 · 2020: 401 · 2019: 373 · 2018: 316 · 2017: 256 · 2016: 169 · 2015: 154 · 2014: 106 · 2013: 55 · 2012: 25
FWCI
444.10
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Locations
  • American Economic Review (publishedVersion)
  • Zurich Open Repository and Archive (University of Zurich) (acceptedVersion, other-oa)
  • RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
  • DSpace@MIT (Massachusetts Institute of Technology) (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc)
  • Econstor (Econstor) (submittedVersion)
  • Zurich Open Repository and Archive (University of Zurich) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
  • Zurich Open Repository and Archive (University of Zurich)
Funders
  • National Science Foundation (0239538)
  • Comunidad de Madrid
  • Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación (CSD2006-00016)
Topics
  • Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › General Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Global trade and economics
  • Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Labor market dynamics and wage inequality
  • Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Historical Economic and Social Studies
Keywords
import competition, China trade, local labor markets, manufacturing employment decline, unemployment, labor force participation, wages, trade exposure, industrial specialization, United States

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