The DOI matches its Crossref record; 6 of the 6 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
Risk and Uncertainty Communication
Abstract
This review briefly examines the vast range of techniques used to communicate risk assessments arising from statistical analysis. After discussing essential psychological and sociological issues, I focus on individual health risks and relevant research on communicating numbers, verbal expressions, graphics, and conveying deeper uncertainty. I then consider practice in a selection of diverse case studies, including gambling, the benefits and risks of pharmaceuticals, weather forecasting, natural hazards, climate change, environmental exposures, security and intelligence, industrial reliability, and catastrophic national and global risks. There are some tentative final conclusions, but the primary message is to acknowledge expert guidance, be clear about objectives, and work closely with intended audiences.
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“research shows that humans in general suffer from a variety of cognitive biases, some of which hinder our understanding of uncertainty [60,107,115].”
From Uncertainty as a Form of Transparency: Measuring, Communicating, and Using Uncertainty (2021) · cites this paper as [115]
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“Since current risk communication tools are quite basic, generally comprising a simple diagram or percentage (Spiegelhalter 2017), this exposes a need for improvements to risk communication tools.”
BackgroundMullins, E. (2019) · Journal of Experimental Botany · doi:10.1093/jxb/erz196 · Cited by 1
“Communicating evidence in an open, impartial and humble manner is critical to demonstrating trustworthiness and, as recently argued, admitting uncertainty to an audience is acceptable and helps build empathy and credibility (Spiegelhalter, 2017).”
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“…encompasses many aspects of uncertainty [48] that can happen in any stage of the visualization process [27]: from precision and accuracy of the collected data [40], to missing data or a lack of information [52], to risk or probabilities [53], to uncertainty data resulting from predictions.”
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“In addition, studies have revealed that the relatively abstract bar chart form can better reduce assessment errors, owing to the influence of denominator size and framing effects, compared to the relatively specific icon array form (Few & Edge, 2016; Spiegelhalter, 2017; Trevena et al., 2021).”
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BackgroundTiede, K. E., Henninger, F., & Kieslich, P. (2021) · Psychonomic Bulletin & Review · doi:10.3758/s13423-021-02018-4
“In particular, the presentation format has been investigated as a mechanism to improve choices (for reviews, see Garcia-Retamero & Cokely, 2013, 2017; Spiegelhalter, 2017).”
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Nkosi, T., Molefe, L., Dlamini, S., Mokoena, A., & Ndlovu, K. (2025) · Journal of Artificial Intelligence for Materials Science · doi:10.68159/l397814019
Generating Simple, Conservative and Unifying Explanations for Logistic Regression Models
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“We use proportion out of a referent, rather than percentage, in line with the recommendations in (Gigerenzer, 2003); the referent is set to 100 to avoid presenting referents of different magnitudes for different cars, which may introduce a ratio bias (Spiegelhalter, 2017).”
MethodTimmons, S., & McGowan, F. (2024) · Social Science Research Network · doi:10.2139/ssrn.4976829
“We developed an infographic to communicate the risk of facing a financial shock in a given year, based on principles from the psychological literature on risk communication (e.g., Spiegelhalter 2017).”
Duffy, B. (2020) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-3-662-61676-5_1
Metadata
- Authors
- Spiegelhalter, D.
- Affiliations
- University of Cambridge (GB)
- Corresponding author
- Spiegelhalter, David
- ORCID
- Spiegelhalter, David
- Venue
- Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application
- Publisher
- Annual Reviews
- Published
- 2017-03-07
- Volume
- 4
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 31-60
- ISSN
- 2326-8298 (ISSN-L)
- 2326-831X
- OpenAlex
- W2529483981
- Cited by
- 248
- References
- 0
- Citations by year
- 2026: 33 · 2025: 35 · 2024: 32 · 2023: 31 · 2022: 31 · 2021: 29 · 2020: 26 · 2019: 15 · 2018: 16
- FWCI
- 4.77
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application (publishedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Risk Perception and Management
- Health Sciences › Health Professions › General Health Professions › Patient-Provider Communication in Healthcare
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Climate Change Communication and Perception
- Keywords
- risk communication, uncertainty communication, risk assessment, health risks, gambling, weather forecasting, natural hazards, climate change, environmental exposure, production reliability, catastrophic risk, expert guidance, audience understanding
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