Radiomics Signature: A Potential Biomarker for the Prediction of Disease-Free Survival in Early-Stage (I or II) Non—Small Cell Lung Cancer

Abstract

Purpose To develop a radiomics signature to estimate disease-free survival (DFS) in patients with early-stage (stage I–II) non–small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and assess its incremental value to the traditional staging system and clinical-pathologic risk factors for individual DFS estimation. Materials and Methods Ethical approval by the institutional review board was obtained for this retrospective analysis, and the need to obtain informed consent was waived. This study consisted of 282 consecutive patients with stage IA–IIB NSCLC. A radiomics signature was generated by using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator, or LASSO, Cox regression model. Association between the radiomics signature and DFS was explored. Further validation of the radiomics signature as an independent biomarker was performed by using multivariate Cox regression. A radiomics nomogram with the radiomics signature incorporated was constructed to demonstrate the incremental value of the radiomics signature to the traditional staging system and other clinical-pathologic risk factors for individualized DFS estimation, which was then assessed with respect to calibration, discrimination, reclassification, and clinical usefulness. Results The radiomics signature was significantly associated with DFS, independent of clinical-pathologic risk factors. Incorporating the radiomics signature into the radiomics-based nomogram resulted in better performance (P < .0001) for the estimation of DFS (C-index: 0.72; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.71, 0.73) than with the clinical-pathologic nomogram (C-index: 0.691; 95% CI: 0.68, 0.70), as well as a better calibration and improved accuracy of the classification of survival outcomes (net reclassification improvement: 0.182; 95% CI: 0.02, 0.31; P = .02). Decision curve analysis demonstrated that in terms of clinical usefulness, the radiomics nomogram outperformed the traditional staging system and the clinical-pathologic nomogram. Conclusion The radiomics signature is an independent biomarker for the estimation of DFS in patients with early-stage NSCLC. Combination of the radiomics signature, traditional staging system, and other clinical-pathologic risk factors performed better for individualized DFS estimation in patients with early-stage NSCLC, which might enable a step forward precise medicine. © RSNA, 2016 Online supplemental material is available for this article.