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Incidence and Prevalence of Atrial Fibrillation and Associated Mortality Among Medicare Beneficiaries: 1993–2007
Open accessAbstract
Background—: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a common and costly problem among older persons. The frequency of AF increases with age, but representative national data about incidence and prevalence are limited. We examined the annual incidence, prevalence, and mortality associated with AF among older persons. Methods and Results—: In a retrospective cohort study of Medicare beneficiaries 65 years and older diagnosed with AF between 1993 and 2007, we measured annual age- and sex-adjusted incidence and prevalence of AF and mortality following an AF diagnosis. Among 433 123 patients with incident AF, the mean age was 80 years, 55% were women, and 92% were white. The incidence of AF remained steady during the 14-year study period, ranging from 27.3 to 28.3 per 1000 person-years. Incidence rates were consistently higher among men and white beneficiaries. The prevalence of AF increased across the study period (mean, 5% per year) and was robust to sensitivity analyses. Among beneficiaries with incident AF in 2007, 36% had heart failure, 84% had hypertension, 30% had cerebrovascular disease, and 8% had dementia. Mortality after AF diagnosis declined slightly over time but remained high. In 2007, the age- and sex-adjusted mortality rates were 11% at 30 days and 25% at 1 year. Conclusions—: Among older Medicare beneficiaries, incident AF is common and has remained relatively stable for more than a decade. Incident AF is associated with significant comorbidity and mortality; death occurs in one-quarter of beneficiaries within 1 year.
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“Similarly to incidence, age-adjusted prevalence of AF has been reported to be lower in women than in men in North America and Europe (Figure 2) (Supplementary Tables S3 and S4).”
From Atrial fibrillation in women: epidemiology, pathophysiology, presentation, and prognosis (2016) · cites this paper as [19]
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredIn the citing paper
“Several regional studies suggest rising prevalence and incidence of AF.9–13”
From Worldwide Epidemiology of Atrial Fibrillation: A Global Burden of Disease 2010 Study (2014) · cites this paper as [13]
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Metadata
- Authors
- Piccini, J. P., Hammill, B. G., Sinner, M. F., Jensen, P. N., Hernandez, A. F., Heckbert, S. R., Benjamin, E. J., & Curtis, L. H.
- Affiliations
- Boston University (US)
- ORCID
- Venue
- Circulation: Cardiovascular Quality and Outcomes
- Published
- 2012-01
- Volume
- 5
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 85-93
- ISSN
- 1941-7705 (ISSN-L)
- 1941-7713
- PMC
- PMC3332107
- OpenAlex
- W2107020336
- Cited by
- 565
- References
- 34
- Citations by year
- 2026: 22 · 2025: 20 · 2024: 27 · 2023: 42 · 2022: 55 · 2021: 42 · 2020: 43 · 2019: 32 · 2018: 38 · 2017: 46 · 2016: 51 · 2015: 58 · 2014: 40 · 2013: 33 · 2012: 16
- FWCI
- 30.26
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
- Locations
- Circulation Cardiovascular Quality and Outcomes (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (acceptedVersion)
- PubMed Central (acceptedVersion)
- Funders
- Centre International de Recherche sur le Cancer
- National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute (R01HL068986, R01HL102214, RC1HL101056, R01HL092577)
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Cardiology and Cardiovascular Medicine › Atrial Fibrillation Management and Outcomes
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Clinical Neurology › Acute Ischemic Stroke Management
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Cardiology and Cardiovascular Medicine › Cardiac Health and Mental Health
- Keywords
- atrial fibrillation, incidence, prevalence, mortality, older adults, Medicare beneficiaries, comorbidities, heart failure, hypertension, cerebrovascular disease, dementia, sex differences, racial differences
- MeSH terms
- Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Atrial Fibrillation, Female, Medicare, Humans, Male, Retrospective Studies, Sex Factors, United States, Incidence, Prevalence, Survival Analysis, Treatment Outcome
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