Prevalence, incidence and lifetime risk of atrial fibrillation: the Rotterdam study
Abstract
AIMS: We aimed to investigate the prevalence and incidence of atrial fibrillation (AF) in a large European population-based study. METHODS AND RESULTS: The study is part of the Rotterdam study, a population-based prospective cohort study among subjects aged 55 years and above. The prevalence at baseline was assessed in 6808 participants. Incidence of AF was investigated during a mean follow-up period of 6.9 years in 6432 persons. We identified 376 prevalent and 437 incident cases. Overall prevalence was 5.5%, rising from 0.7% in the age group 55-59 years to 17.8% in those aged 85 years and above. The overall incidence rate was 9.9/1000 person-years. The incidence rate in the age group 55-59 years was 1.1/1000 person-years, rose to 20.7/1000 person-years in the age group 80-84 years and stabilized in those aged 85 years and above. Prevalence and incidence were higher in men than in women. The lifetime risk to develop AF at the age of 55 years was 23.8% in men and 22.2% in women. CONCLUSION: In this prospective study in a European population, the prevalence and incidence of AF increased with age and were higher in men than in women. The high lifetime risk to develop AF was similar to North American epidemiological data.
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Several regional studies suggest rising prevalence and incidence of atrial fibrillation.
“Several regional studies suggest rising prevalence and incidence of AF.9–13”
From Worldwide Epidemiology of Atrial Fibrillation: A Global Burden of Disease 2010 Study (2014) · cites this paper as [10]
In a population-based study from China, the lifetime risk for women at age 55 years was 22.2%, higher than that for men (16.7%).
“A population-based study from China showed similar lifetime risk for women at age 55 years (22.2%); however, in contrast to North American populations, the lifetime risk for women in China was higher than that for men (22.2% versus 16.7%).31”
From Atrial fibrillation in women: epidemiology, pathophysiology, presentation, and prognosis (2016) · cites this paper as [31]
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Self-citationThe Rotterdam Study: 2012 objectives and design update
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Self-citation
- Authors
- Heeringa, J., van der Kuip, D. A. M., Hofman, A., Kors, J. A., van Herpen, G., Stricker, B. H. C., Stijnen, T., Lip, G. Y. H., & Witteman, J. C. M.
- Affiliations
- Erasmus MC (NL)
- Birmingham City Hospital (GB)
- Corresponding author
- Heeringa, Jan
- Venue
- European Heart Journal
- Publisher
- Oxford University Press (OUP)
- Published
- 2006-03-09
- Volume
- 27
- Issue
- 8
- Pages
- 949-953
- ISSN
- 0195-668X (ISSN-L)
- 1522-9645
- OpenAlex
- W2148056560
- Cited by
- 1,939
- References
- 37
- Citations by year
- 2026: 38 · 2025: 58 · 2024: 87 · 2023: 89 · 2022: 105 · 2021: 109 · 2020: 142 · 2019: 122 · 2018: 123 · 2017: 146 · 2016: 112 · 2015: 153 · 2014: 118 · 2013: 141 · 2012: 113
- FWCI
- 31.18
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- European Heart Journal (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- EUR Research Repository (Erasmus University Rotterdam) (publishedVersion)
- EUR Research Repository (Erasmus University Rotterdam) (submittedVersion)
- HighWire Press Open Archive (submittedVersion)
- Digest of the World Core Medical Journals(Cardiology)
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Cardiology and Cardiovascular Medicine › Atrial Fibrillation Management and Outcomes
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Epidemiology › Acute Ischemic Stroke Management
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Cardiology and Cardiovascular Medicine › Cardiac electrophysiology and arrhythmias
- Keywords
- atrial fibrillation, prevalence, incidence, lifetime risk, age differences, sex differences, older adults, Rotterdam Study
- MeSH terms
- Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Atrial Fibrillation, Epidemiologic Methods, Female, Humans, Male, Middle Aged, Netherlands, Age Distribution, Sex Distribution
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