The DOI matches its Crossref record; 28 of the 31 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
The American High School Graduation Rate: Trends and Levels
Open accessAbstract
This paper applies a unified methodology to multiple data sets to estimate both the levels and trends in U.S. high school graduation rates. We establish that (a) the true rate is substantially lower than widely used measures, (b) it peaked in the early 1970s, (c) majority-minority differentials are substantial and have not converged for 35 years, (d) lower post-1970 rates are not solely due to increasing immigrant and minority populations, (e) our findings explain part of the slowdown in college attendance and rising college wage premiums, and (f) widening graduation differentials by gender help explain increasing male-female college attendance gaps.
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“About one in four American students drops out of formal schooling before receiving a high school diploma, and in recent decades the dropout rate has increased slightly (Heckman and LaFontaine [2010]).”
From Personality Psychology and Economics (2011) · cites this paper as Heckman and LaFontaine [2010]
In the citing paper
“Yet, a 2010 study by Heckman and Lafontaine found a steady decline in the high school graduation rates in the US since 1970s [57].”
From Long-term effects of mental disorders on educational attainment in the National Comorbidity Survey ten-year follow-up (2015) · cites this paper as [57]
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Citations
Cites
Changes in Relative Wages, 1963-1987: Supply and Demand Factors
Katz, L. F., & Murphy, K. M. (1992) · The Quarterly Journal of Economics · doi:10.2307/2118323 · Cited by 4,793
The effects of cognitive and noncognitive abilities on labor market outcomes and social behavior
Heckman, J. J., Stixrud, J., & Urzua, S. (2006) · Journal of Labor Economics · doi:10.1086/504455 · Cited by 4,427
Self-citationThe Effect of Education on Crime: Evidence from Prison Inmates, Arrests, and Self-Reports
Lochner, L., & Moretti, E. (2004) · American Economic Review · doi:10.1257/000282804322970751 · Cited by 2,032
Skill‐Biased Technological Change and Rising Wage Inequality: Some Problems and Puzzles
Card, D., & DiNardo, J. E. (2002) · Journal of Labor Economics · doi:10.1086/342055 · Cited by 1,714
Diverging destinies: How children are faring under the second demographic transition
McLanahan, S. (2004) · Demography · doi:10.1353/dem.2004.0033 · Cited by 1,554
The importance of noncognitive skills: lessons from the GED testing program
Heckman, J. J., & Rubinstein, Y. (2001) · American Economic Review · doi:10.1257/aer.91.2.145 · Cited by 1,488
Self-citationHeckman, J. J. (2008) · Economic Inquiry · doi:10.1111/j.1465-7295.2008.00163.x · Cited by 1,079
Self-citationThe Homecoming of American College Women: The Reversal of the College Gender Gap
Goldin, C., Katz, L. F., & Kuziemko, I. (2006) · Journal of Economic Perspectives · doi:10.1257/jep.20.4.133 · Cited by 1,010
The Silent Epidemic Perspectives of High School Dropouts
Hart, P. D., Bridgeland, J. M., DiIulio, J. J., & Morison, B. (2006) · Cited by 776
The Nonequivalence of High School Equivalents
Cameron, S. V., & Heckman, J. J. (1991) · National Bureau of Economic Research · doi:10.3386/w3804 · Cited by 448
Self-citationThe Economics and Psychology of Inequality and Human DEvelopment
Cunha, F., & Heckman, J. J. (2009) · Journal of the European Economic Association · doi:10.1162/jeea.2009.7.2-3.320 · Cited by 420
Self-citationThe Nonequivalence of High School Equivalents
Cameron, S. V., & Heckman, J. J. (1993) · Journal of Labor Economics · doi:10.1086/298316 · Cited by 409
Self-citationKrein, S. F., & Beller, A. H. (1988) · Demography · doi:10.2307/2061290 · Cited by 345
The Homecoming of American College Women: The Reversal of the College Gender Gap
Goldin, C. D., Katz, L. F., & Kuziemko, I. (2006) · National Bureau of Economic Research · doi:10.3386/w12139 · Cited by 323
Population Growth in U. S. Prisons, 1980-1996
Blumstein, A., & Beck, A. J. (1999) · Crime and Justice · doi:10.1086/449294 · Cited by 312
Dropout and Enrollment Trends in the Post-War Period: What Went Wrong in the 1970s?
Card, D., & Lemieux, T. (2000) · National Bureau of Economic Research · doi:10.3386/w7658 · Cited by 220
Earnings Functions and Rates of Return
Heckman, J. J., Lochner, L., & Todd, P. (2008) · Journal of Human Capital · doi:10.1086/587037 · Cited by 207
Self-citationRising Wage Inequality: The Role of Composition and Prices
Autor, D., Katz, L. F., & Kearney, M. S. (2005) · National Bureau of Economic Research · doi:10.3386/w11628 · Cited by 192
Incarceration and Racial Inequality in Men's Employment
Western, B., & Pettit, B. (2000) · ILR Review · doi:10.1177/001979390005400101 · Cited by 192
Higher standards, more dropouts? Evidence within and across time
Lillard, D. R., & DeCicca, P. (2001) · Economics of Education Review · doi:10.1016/s0272-7757(00)00022-4 · Cited by 135
Bias‐Corrected Estimates of GED Returns
Heckman, J. J., & LaFontaine, P. (2006) · Journal of Labor Economics · doi:10.1086/504278 · Cited by 128
Self-citationHigh School Exit Examinations and State-Level Completion and GED Rates, 1975 Through 2002
Warren, J. R., Jenkins, K. N., & Kulick, R. B. (2006) · Educational Evaluation and Policy Analysis · doi:10.3102/01623737028002131 · Cited by 91
Swanson, C. B., & Chaplin, D. (2003) · Cited by 46
Warren, J. R., & Halpern-Manners, A. (2007) · Educational Researcher · doi:10.3102/0013189x07306580 · Cited by 44
High School Graduation Rates:Alternative Methods and Implications
Miao, J., & Haney, W. (2004) · Education Policy Analysis Archives · doi:10.14507/epaa.v12n55.2004 · Cited by 42
The High School Dropout Puzzle.
Finn, C. E. (1987) · The Public interest/The public interest · Cited by 42
State-level high school completion rates: Concepts, measures, and trends.
Warren, J. R. (2005) · Education Policy Analysis Archives · doi:10.14507/epaa.v13n51.2005 · Cited by 41
Incarceration and Racial Inequality in Men's Employment
Western, B., & Pettit, B. (2000) · Industrial and Labor Relations Review · doi:10.2307/2696029 · Cited by 37
Flagged first, then by citations
3 of the 31 references couldn’t be matched to a known paper.
Research works printed but not linked: 4
- Aaronson Daniel, 2001, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Economic Perspectives, 25, 53
- Chaplin Duncan, 2002, Education Next, 2, 24
- Finn Chester E., Jr., 1987, Public Interest, 87, 3
- Miao Jing, 2004, Education Policy Analysis Archives, 12, 1
Cited by
Sorted by citations
Heckman, J. J., & Kautz, T. (2012) · Labour Economics · doi:10.1016/j.labeco.2012.05.014 · Cited by 2,007
Self-citationPersonality Psychology and Economics
Almlund, M., Duckworth, A. L., Heckman, J. J., & Kautz, T. (2011) · Handbook of the economics of education · doi:10.1016/b978-0-444-53444-6.00001-8 · Cited by 1,412
Self-citationHeckman, J. J. (2008) · Economic Inquiry · doi:10.1111/j.1465-7295.2008.00163.x · Cited by 1,079
Self-citationKautz, T., Heckman, J. J., Diris, R., ter Weel, B., & Borghans, L. (2014) · National Bureau of Economic Research · doi:10.3386/w20749 · Cited by 825
Self-citationQuin, D. (2017) · Review of Educational Research · doi:10.3102/0034654316669434 · Cited by 565
Metadata
- Authors
- Heckman, J. J., & LaFontaine, P. A.
- Affiliations
- University College Dublin (IE)
- American Bar Association (US)
- ORCID
- Heckman, James J
- Venue
- Review of Economics and Statistics
- Publisher
- MIT Press - Journals
- Published
- 2010-05
- Volume
- 92
- Issue
- 2
- Pages
- 244-262
- ISSN
- 0034-6535 (ISSN-L)
- 1530-9142
- PMC
- PMC2900934
- OpenAlex
- W2140410834
- Cited by
- 568
- References
- 31
- Citations by year
- 2026: 8 · 2025: 11 · 2024: 9 · 2023: 8 · 2022: 19 · 2021: 16 · 2020: 30 · 2019: 25 · 2018: 31 · 2017: 40 · 2016: 45 · 2015: 58 · 2014: 50 · 2013: 48 · 2012: 44
- FWCI
- 107.34
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- doi.org
- Locations
- The Review of Economics and Statistics (publishedVersion)
- National Bureau of Economic Research (publishedVersion)
- SSRN Electronic Journal (acceptedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- PubMed Central (acceptedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Research Repository UCD (University College Dublin) (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc-sa)
- SSRN Electronic Journal (submittedVersion)
- Arrow@dit (Dublin Institute of Technology) (submittedVersion)
- Econstor (Econstor) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- National Science Foundation (P01-HD31921)
- American Bar Foundation
- University College Dublin
- National Institutes of Health (NIH-R01)
- National Institute of Child Health and Human Development (P01-HD31921)
- Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development (R01HD043411, P01HD031921, R01HD054702)
- Carolina Population Center, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill (P01HD31921)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Education › Higher Education Research Studies
- Social Sciences › Education › School Choice and Performance
- Social Sciences › Education › Educational Outcomes and Influences
- Keywords
- high school graduation rates, immigrant students, college attendance, college wage premium, educational attainment, United States
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