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Voting after the Bombings: A Natural Experiment on the Effect of Terrorist Attacks on Democratic Elections
Abstract
Can terrorist attacks be timed to change the outcome of democratic elections? In this paper, we analyze the electoral impact of the terrorist attacks of March 11, 2004, in Madrid. Studies using individual level postelectoral survey data reach contradictory conclusions. We propose an alternative approach. Since the bombings took place only three days before the 2004 congressional election, we can find a control group of individuals who cast their vote before the terrorist attacks. The results indicate that the attacks had an important electoral impact, rejecting the hypothesis that the identity of the winner was unaffected by the terrorist attacks.
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“In addition to the normative significance of this labeling act, designating an out-group as terrorists strongly impacts voting behavior and election outcomes (Montalvo 2011).”
From Public Opinion and Cyberterrorism (2023) · cites this paper as Montalvo 2011
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Metadata
- Authors
- Montalvo, J. G.
- Affiliations
- Universitat Pompeu Fabra (ES)
- Corresponding author
- Montalvo, José G.
- ORCID
- Montalvo, José G.
- Venue
- Review of Economics and Statistics
- Publisher
- MIT Press
- Published
- 2011-11
- Volume
- 93
- Issue
- 4
- Pages
- 1146-1154
- ISSN
- 0034-6535 (ISSN-L)
- 1530-9142
- OpenAlex
- W1984307355
- Cited by
- 299
- References
- 15
- Citations by year
- 2026: 18 · 2025: 15 · 2024: 32 · 2023: 17 · 2022: 27 · 2021: 29 · 2020: 37 · 2019: 14 · 2018: 23 · 2017: 18 · 2016: 19 · 2015: 13 · 2014: 13 · 2013: 11 · 2012: 5
- FWCI
- 49.59
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- The Review of Economics and Statistics (publishedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Political Science and International Relations › Electoral Systems and Political Participation
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Terrorism, Counterterrorism, and Political Violence
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Political Conflict and Governance
- Keywords
- terrorist attacks, Madrid train bombings, electoral consequences, voting behavior, democratic elections, 2004 Spanish general election, natural experiment, political violence
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