The DOI matches its Crossref record; 33 of the 33 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
The North American Multimodel Ensemble: Phase-1 Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction; Phase-2 toward Developing Intraseasonal Prediction
Abstract
The recent U.S. National Academies report, Assessment of Intraseasonal to Interannual Climate Prediction and Predictability, was unequivocal in recommending the need for the development of a North American Multimodel Ensemble (NMME) operational predictive capability. Indeed, this effort is required to meet the specific tailored regional prediction and decision support needs of a large community of climate information users. The multimodel ensemble approach has proven extremely effective at quantifying prediction uncertainty due to uncertainty in model formulation and has proven to produce better prediction quality (on average) than any single model ensemble. This multimodel approach is the basis for several international collaborative prediction research efforts and an operational European system, and there are numerous examples of how this multimodel ensemble approach yields superior forecasts compared to any single model. Based on two NOAA Climate Test bed (CTB) NMME workshops (18 February and 8 April 2011), a collaborative and coordinated implementation strategy for a NMME prediction system has been developed and is currently delivering real-time seasonal-to-interannual predictions on the NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC) operational schedule. The hindcast and real-time prediction data are readily available (e.g., http://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu/SOURCES/.Models/.NMME/) and in graphical format from CPC (www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/). Moreover, the NMME forecast is already currently being used as guidance for operational forecasters. This paper describes the new NMME effort, and presents an overview of the multimodel forecast quality and the complementary skill associated with individual models.
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Cites
The NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2
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Self-citationThe NCEP Climate Forecast System
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The Impact of Convection on ENSO: From a Delayed Oscillator to a Series of Events
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Current approaches to seasonal to interannual climate predictions
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The NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2
Saha, S., Moorthi, S., Wu, X., Wang, J., Nadiga, S., Tripp, P., Behringer, D., Hou, Y.-T., Chuang, H.-Y., Iredell, M., et al. (2014) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/jcli-d-12-00823.1 · Cited by 3,354
Self-citationDivergent consensuses on Arctic amplification influence on midlatitude severe winter weather
Cohen, J., Zhang, X., Francis, J., Jung, T., Kwok, R., Overland, J., Ballinger, T. J., Bhatt, U. S., Chen, H. W., Coumou, D., et al. (2020) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/s41558-019-0662-y · Cited by 802
Seasonal Drought Prediction: Advances, Challenges, and Future Prospects
Hao, Z., Singh, V. P., & Xia, Y. (2018) · Reviews of Geophysics · doi:10.1002/2016rg000549 · Cited by 607
Historic Yangtze flooding of 2020 tied to extreme Indian Ocean conditions
Zhou, Z.-Q., Xie, S.-P., & Zhang, R. (2021) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.2022255118 · Cited by 367
Slater, L. J., Anderson, B., Buechel, M., Dadson, S., Han, S., Harrigan, S., Kelder, T., Kowal, K., Lees, T., Matthews, T., et al. (2021) · Hydrology and Earth System Sciences · doi:10.5194/hess-25-3897-2021 · Cited by 357
Metadata
- Authors
- Kirtman, B. P., Min, D., Infanti, J. M., Kinter, J. L., Paolino, D. A., Zhang, Q., van den Dool, H., Saha, S., Mendez, M. P., Becker, E., Peng, P., Tripp, P., Huang, J., DeWitt, D. G., Tippett, M. K., Barnston, A. G., Li, S., Rosati, A., Schubert, S. D., Rienecker, M., Suarez, M., Li, Z. E., Marshak, J., Lim, Y.-K., Tribbia, J., Pegion, K., Merryfield, W. J., Denis, B., & Wood, E. F.
- Venue
- Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
- Publisher
- American Meteorological Society
- Published
- 2014-04
- Volume
- 95
- Issue
- 4
- Pages
- 585-601
- ISSN
- 0003-0007 (ISSN-L)
- 1520-0477
- OpenAlex
- W2084279619
- Cited by
- 1,014
- References
- 33
- FWCI
- 35.51
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
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- The paper
- Kirtman, B. P., Min, D., Infanti, J. M., Kinter, J. L., Paolino, D. A., Zhang, Q., van den Dool, H., Saha, S., Mendez, M. P., Becker, E., Peng, P., Tripp, P., Huang, J., DeWitt, D. G., Tippett, M. K., Barnston, A. G., Li, S., Rosati, A., Schubert, S. D., . . . Wood, E. F. (2014). The North American Multimodel Ensemble: Phase-1 Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction; Phase-2 toward Developing Intraseasonal Prediction. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. https://doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-12-00050.1
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Contains information from the Semantic Scholar Academic Graph Datasets, made available under the ODC Attribution License (ODC-BY 1.0).
Semantic Scholar’s data is described in: Kinney, R., et al. (2023). The Semantic Scholar Open Data Platform. arXiv:2301.10140.
