The DOI matches its Crossref record; 18 of the 18 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
Is a Decline of AMOC Causing the Warming Hole above the North Atlantic in Observed and Modeled Warming Patterns?
Open accessAbstract
The pattern of global mean temperature (GMT) change is calculated by regressing local surface air temperature (SAT) to GMT for an ensemble of CMIP5 models and for observations over the last 132 years. Calculations are based on the historical period and climate change scenarios. As in the observations the warming pattern contains a warming hole over the subpolar North Atlantic. Using a bivariate regression of SAT to GMT and an index of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), the warming pattern is decomposed in a radiatively forced part and an AMOC fingerprint. The North Atlantic warming hole is associated with a decline of the AMOC. The AMOC fingerprint resembles Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV), but details of the pattern change when the AMOC decline increases, underscoring the nonlinearity in the response. The warming hole is situated south of deep convection sites, indicating that it involves an adjustment of the gyre circulation, although it should be noted that some models feature deep convection in the middle of the subpolar gyre. The warming hole is already prominent in historical runs, where the response of the AMOC to GMT is weak, which suggests that it is involved in an ocean adjustment that precedes the AMOC decline. In the more strongly forced scenario runs, the warming hole over the subpolar gyre becomes weaker, while cooling over the Nordic seas increases, consistent with previous findings that deep convection in the Labrador and Irminger Seas is more vulnerable to changes in external forcing than convection in the Nordic seas, which only reacts after a threshold is passed.
Overview
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Verification
Claims the paper makes
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
The self-check needs the paper’s full text.
Citations
Cites
An Overview of CMIP5 and the Experiment Design
Taylor, K. E., Stouffer, R. J., & Meehl, G. A. (2012) · Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society · doi:10.1175/bams-d-11-00094.1 · Cited by 14,052
Meehl, G. A., Stocker, T. F., Collins, W. D., Friedlingstein, P., Gaye, A. T., Gregory, J. M., Kitoh, A., Knutti, R., Murphy, J. M., Noda, A., et al. (n.d.) · Bern Open Repository and Information System (University of Bern) · doi:10.48350/25539 · Cited by 3,726
Global surface temperature change
Hansen, J., Ruedy, R., Sato, M., & Lo, K. (2010) · Reviews of Geophysics · doi:10.1029/2010rg000345 · Cited by 3,081 · cited 2×
“…simulations from phase 5 of the World Climate Research Program’s Coupled Model In-tercomparison Project (Taylor et al. 2012) have been used and compared to observations from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) surface temperature analysis (GISTEMP-1200) dataset (Hansen et al. 2010).”
MethodA signature of persistent natural thermohaline circulation cycles in observed climate.
Knight, J. R., Allan, R. J., Folland, C. K., Vellinga, M., & Mann, M. E. (2005) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2005gl024233 · Cited by 1,208
Aerosols implicated as a prime driver of twentieth-century North Atlantic climate variability
Booth, B. B. B., Dunstone, N. J., Halloran, P. R., Andrews, T., & Bellouin, N. (2012) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature10946 · Cited by 1,022
Mechanism of Interannual to Decadal Variability of the North Atlantic Circulation
Eden, C., & Willebrand, J. (2001) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2001)014<2266:moitdv>2.0.co;2 · Cited by 480
External forcing as a metronome for Atlantic multidecadal variability
Otterå, O. H., Bentsen, M., Drange, H., & Suo, L. (2010) · Nature Geoscience · doi:10.1038/ngeo955 · Cited by 479
Coherent surface‐subsurface fingerprint of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation
Zhang, R. (2008) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2008gl035463 · Cited by 334
Response of the North Atlantic storm track to climate change shaped by ocean–atmosphere coupling
Woollings, T., Gregory, J. M., Pinto, J. G., Reyers, M., & Brayshaw, D. J. (2012) · Nature Geoscience · doi:10.1038/ngeo1438 · Cited by 311
Latif, M., Roeckner, E., Botzet, M., Esch, M., Haak, H., Hagemann, S., Jungclaus, J., Legutke, S., Marsland, S., Mikolajewicz, U., et al. (2004) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2004)017<1605:rmapmc>2.0.co;2 · Cited by 288
Cited by
Observed fingerprint of a weakening Atlantic Ocean overturning circulation
Caesar, L., Rahmstorf, S., Robinson, A., Feulner, G., & Saba, V. (2018) · Nature · doi:10.1038/s41586-018-0006-5 · Cited by 1,078
Kwiatkowski, L., Torres, O., Bopp, L., Aumont, O., Chamberlain, M., Christian, J. R., Dunne, J. P., Gehlen, M., Ilyina, T., John, J. G., et al. (2020) · Biogeosciences · doi:10.5194/bg-17-3439-2020 · Cited by 897
“As in the surface ocean, this cooling is likely associated with a slow down of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (Drijfhout et al., 2012; Menary and Wood, 2018).”
BackgroundClimate impacts of a weakened Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in a warming climate
Liu, W., Fedorov, A. V., Xie, S.-P., & Hu, S. (2020) · Science Advances · doi:10.1126/sciadv.aaz4876 · Cited by 322
Cheng, L., von Schuckmann, K., Abraham, J. P., Trenberth, K. E., Mann, M. E., Zanna, L., England, M. H., Zika, J. D., Fasullo, J. T., Yu, Y., et al. (2022) · Nature Reviews Earth & Environment · doi:10.1038/s43017-022-00345-1 · Cited by 312
Vihma, T., Screen, J., Tjernström, M., Newton, B., Zhang, X., Popova, V., Deser, C., Holland, M., & Prowse, T. (2016) · Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences · doi:10.1002/2015jg003132 · Cited by 309
Metadata
- Authors
- Drijfhout, S., van Oldenborgh, G. J., & Cimatoribus, A.
- Venue
- Journal of Climate
- Publisher
- American Meteorological Society
- Published
- 2012-12-15
- Volume
- 25
- Issue
- 24
- Pages
- 8373-8379
- ISSN
- 0894-8755 (ISSN-L)
- 1520-0442
- OpenAlex
- W2070541435
- Cited by
- 329
- References
- 18
- FWCI
- 8.08
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review
How to cite
Cite CoChat for the checks on this page, and the paper for its own findings.
- This page
- CoChat. (2026). Citation check: Is a Decline of AMOC Causing the Warming Hole above the North Atlantic in Observed and Modeled Warming Patterns? https://app.cochat.ai/papers/10.1175/jcli-d-12-00490.1
- The paper
- Drijfhout, S., van Oldenborgh, G. J., & Cimatoribus, A. (2012). Is a Decline of AMOC Causing the Warming Hole above the North Atlantic in Observed and Modeled Warming Patterns? Journal of Climate. https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-12-00490.1
Data sources
Bibliographic data: Semantic Scholar, OpenAlex, Crossref.
Contains information from the Semantic Scholar Academic Graph Datasets, made available under the ODC Attribution License (ODC-BY 1.0).
Semantic Scholar’s data is described in: Kinney, R., et al. (2023). The Semantic Scholar Open Data Platform. arXiv:2301.10140.
