Aerosols implicated as a prime driver of twentieth-century North Atlantic climate variability
Open accessAbstract
Systematic climate shifts have been linked to multidecadal variability in observed sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic Ocean. These links are extensive, influencing a range of climate processes such as hurricane activity and African Sahel and Amazonian droughts. The variability is distinct from historical global-mean temperature changes and is commonly attributed to natural ocean oscillations. A number of studies have provided evidence that aerosols can influence long-term changes in sea surface temperatures, but climate models have so far failed to reproduce these interactions and the role of aerosols in decadal variability remains unclear. Here we use a state-of-the-art Earth system climate model to show that aerosol emissions and periods of volcanic activity explain 76 per cent of the simulated multidecadal variance in detrended 1860-2005 North Atlantic sea surface temperatures. After 1950, simulated variability is within observational estimates; our estimates for 1910-1940 capture twice the warming of previous generation models but do not explain the entire observed trend. Other processes, such as ocean circulation, may also have contributed to variability in the early twentieth century. Mechanistically, we find that inclusion of aerosol-cloud microphysical effects, which were included in few previous multimodel ensembles, dominates the magnitude (80 per cent) and the spatial pattern of the total surface aerosol forcing in the North Atlantic. Our findings suggest that anthropogenic aerosol emissions influenced a range of societally important historical climate events such as peaks in hurricane activity and Sahel drought. Decadal-scale model predictions of regional Atlantic climate will probably be improved by incorporating aerosol-cloud microphysical interactions and estimates of future concentrations of aerosols, emissions of which are directly addressable by policy actions.
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Claims the paper makes
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
The clustering of extreme annual low stand values occurring during and following the Hrafnkatla episode may suggest a different, more persistent tropical hydroclimate response following prolonged volcanic emissions, as was the case during the 20th century which was dominated by anthropogenic sulfur emissions.
“The low flow following these short-lived high-latitude eruptions is of short duration (i.e., the year after the eruption), and therefore, the clustering of extreme annual low stand values occurring during and following the Hrafnkatla episode may suggest a different, more persistent tropical hydroclimate response following prolonged volcanic emissions as was the case during the 20th century which w”
From Decadal-to-centennial increases of volcanic aerosols from Iceland challenge the concept of a Medieval Quiet Period (2024) · cites this paper as [73]
Split into 2 atoms — 0 confirmed, 1 partially supported, 0 disputed, 0 misattributed, 1 unverifiable. Expand the claim to see per-atom verdicts.
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
The self-check needs the paper’s full text.
Cites
Enfield, D. B., Mestas‐Nuñez, A. M., & Trimble, P. J. (2001) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2000gl012745 · Cited by 3,006 · see citing works
Improvements to NOAA’s Historical Merged Land–Ocean Surface Temperature Analysis (1880–2006)
Smith, T. M., Reynolds, R. W., Peterson, T. C., & Lawrimore, J. H. (2008) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/2007jcli2100.1 · Cited by 2,924 · see citing works
Global indirect aerosol effects: a review
Lohmann, U., & Feichter, J. (2005) · Atmospheric chemistry and physics · doi:10.5194/acp-5-715-2005 · Cited by 2,632 · see citing works
Global indirect aerosol effects: a reviewPreprint
Lohmann, U., & Feichter, J. (2004) · doi:10.5194/acpd-4-7561-2004 · Cited by 1,861 · see citing works
The Recent Increase in Atlantic Hurricane Activity: Causes and Implications
Goldenberg, S. B., Landsea, C. W., Mestas-Nuñez, A. M., & Gray, W. M. (2001) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1060040 · Cited by 1,769 · see citing works
Development and evaluation of an Earth-System model – HadGEM2
Collins, W. J., Bellouin, N., Doutriaux, M., Gedney, N., Halloran, P. R., Hinton, T. J., Hughes, J., JONES, C. D., Joshi, M., Liddicoat, S. K., et al. (2011) · Geoscientific model development · doi:10.5194/gmd-4-1051-2011 · Cited by 1,538 · see citing works
Self-citationAtlantic Ocean Forcing of North American and European Summer Climate
Sutton, R. T., & Hodson, D. (2005) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1109496 · Cited by 1,374 · see citing works
Climate impacts of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation
Knight, J. R., Folland, C. K., & Scaife, A. A. (2006) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2006gl026242 · Cited by 1,209 · see citing works
A signature of persistent natural thermohaline circulation cycles in observed climate.
Knight, J. R., Allan, R. J., Folland, C. K., Vellinga, M., & Mann, M. E. (2005) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2005gl024233 · Cited by 1,208 · see citing works
Sahel rainfall and worldwide sea temperatures, 1901–85
Folland, C. K., Palmer, T. N., & Parker, D. E. (1986) · Nature · doi:10.1038/320602a0 · Cited by 1,147 · see citing works
A North Atlantic Climate Pacemaker for the Centuries
Kerr, R. A. (2000) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.288.5473.1984 · Cited by 1,094 · see citing works
Atlantic hurricanes and natural variability in 2005
Trenberth, K. E., & Shea, D. J. (2006) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2006gl026894 · Cited by 1,084 · see citing works
Impact of Atlantic multidecadal oscillations on India/Sahel rainfall and Atlantic hurricanes
Zhang, R., & Delworth, T. L. (2006) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2006gl026267 · Cited by 939 · see citing works
The HadGEM2-ES implementation of CMIP5 centennial simulations
JONES, C. D., Hughes, J. K., Bellouin, N., Hardiman, S. C., Jones, G. S., Knight, J. R., Liddicoat, S. K., O’Connor, F. M., Andres, R. J., Bell, C., et al. (2011) · Geoscientific model development · doi:10.5194/gmd-4-543-2011 · Cited by 919 · see citing works
Self-citationStratospheric aerosol optical depths, 1850–1990
Sato, M., Hansen, J. E., McCormick, M. P., & Pollack, J. B. (1993) · Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres · doi:10.1029/93jd02553 · Cited by 916 · see citing works
Bjerknes, J. (1964) · Advances in geophysics · doi:10.1016/s0065-2687(08)60005-9 · Cited by 780 · see citing works
Atlantic hurricane trends linked to climate change
MANN, M. E., & Emanuel, K. (2006) · Eos · doi:10.1029/2006eo240001 · Cited by 645 · see citing works
Forced and Internal Twentieth-Century SST Trends in the North Atlantic*
Ting, M., Kushnir, Y., Seager, R., & Li, C. (2008) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/2008jcli2561.1 · Cited by 561 · see citing works
External forcing as a metronome for Atlantic multidecadal variability
Otterå, O. H., Bentsen, M., Drange, H., & Suo, L. (2010) · Nature Geoscience · doi:10.1038/ngeo955 · Cited by 480 · see citing works
Detection and Attribution of Twentieth-Century Northern and Southern African Rainfall Change
Hoerling, M. P., Hurrell, J. W., Eischeid, J. K., & Phillips, A. S. (2006) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/jcli3842.1 · Cited by 466 · see citing works
Bellouin, N., Rae, J. G. L., Jones, A., Johnson, C. E., Haywood, J., & Boucher, O. (2011) · Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres · doi:10.1029/2011jd016074 · Cited by 448 · see citing works
Self-citationQuaas, J., Ming, Y., Menon, S., Takemura, T., Wang, M., Penner, J. E., Gettelman, A., Lohmann, U., Bellouin, N., Boucher, O., et al. (2009) · Atmospheric chemistry and physics · doi:10.5194/acp-9-8697-2009 · Cited by 445 · see citing works
Self-citationDong, B., Sutton, R. T., & Scaife, A. A. (2006) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2006gl025766 · Cited by 301 · see citing works
The Role of Aerosols in the Evolution of Tropical North Atlantic Ocean Temperature Anomalies
Evan, A. T., Vimont, D. J., Heidinger, A. K., et al. (2009) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1167404 · Cited by 185 · see citing works
Evidence for a Rapid Global Climate Shift across the Late 1960s
Baines, P. G., & Folland, C. K. (2007) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/jcli4177.1 · Cited by 162 · see citing works
Sensitivity of Twentieth-Century Sahel Rainfall to Sulfate Aerosol and CO2 Forcing
Ackerley, D., Booth, B. B. B., Knight, S. H. E., Highwood, E. J., Frame, D. J., Allen, M. R., & Rowell, D. P. (2011) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/jcli-d-11-00019.1 · Cited by 145 · see citing works
Self-citationCurtis, S. (2007) · Climate Dynamics · doi:10.1007/s00382-007-0295-0 · Cited by 136 · see citing works
Sulfate Aerosol Control of Tropical Atlantic Climate over the Twentieth Century
Chang, C.-Y., Chiang, J. C. H., Wehner, M. F., Friedman, A. R., & Ruedy, R. A. (2010) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/2010jcli4065.1 · Cited by 129 · see citing works
Knight, J. R. (2008) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/2008jcli2628.1 · Cited by 105 · see citing works
Twentieth century bipolar seesaw of the Arctic and Antarctic surface air temperatures
Chýlek, P., Folland, C. K., Lesins, G. B., & Dubey, M. K. (2010) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2010gl042793 · Cited by 79 · see citing works
Chen, W., Dong, B., & Lu, R. (2010) · Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres · doi:10.1029/2009jd013596 · Cited by 47 · see citing works
Flagged first, then by citations
Cited by
Sorted by citations
Monitoring and Understanding Trends in Extreme Storms: State of Knowledge
Kunkel, K. E., Karl, T. R., Brooks, H., Kossin, J., Lawrimore, J. H., Arndt, D., Bosart, L., Changnon, D., Cutter, S. L., Doesken, N., et al. (2013) · Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society · doi:10.1175/bams-d-11-00262.1 · Cited by 536 · see citing works
Asymmetric forcing from stratospheric aerosols impacts Sahelian rainfall
Haywood, J. M., Jones, A., Bellouin, N., & Stephenson, D. (2013) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/nclimate1857 · Cited by 367 · see citing works
Self-citationHwang, Y., Frierson, D. M. W., & Kang, S. M. (2013) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1002/grl.50502 · Cited by 266 · see citing works
Initialized Earth System prediction from subseasonal to decadal timescales
Meehl, G. A., Richter, J. H., Teng, H., Capotondi, A., Cobb, K., Doblas-Reyes, F., Donat, M. G., England, M. H., Fyfe, J. C., Han, W., et al. (2021) · Nature Reviews Earth & Environment · doi:10.1038/s43017-021-00155-x · Cited by 231 · see citing works
Giannini, A., Salack, S., Lodoun, T., Ali, A., Gaye, A. T., & Ndiaye, O. (2013) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/8/2/024010 · Cited by 178 · see citing works
The tropical atlantic observing system
Foltz, G. R., Brandt, P., Richter, I., Rodríguez-Fonseca, B., Hernandez, F., Dengler, M., Rodrigues, R. R., Schmidt, J. O., Yu, L., Lefevre, N., et al. (2019) · Frontiers in Marine Science · doi:10.3389/fmars.2019.00206 · Cited by 150 · see citing works
Atlantic Multidecadal Variability and the U.K. ACSIS Program
Sutton, R. T., McCarthy, G. D., Robson, J., Sinha, B., Archibald, A. T., & Gray, L. J. (2018) · Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society · doi:10.1175/bams-d-16-0266.1 · Cited by 117 · see citing works
Allen, R. J., Evan, A. T., & Booth, B. B. B. (2015) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/jcli-d-15-0148.1 · Cited by 101 · see citing works
Self-citationSouthward shift of the northern tropical belt from 1945 to 1980
Brönnimann, S., Fischer, A. M., Rozanov, E., Poli, P., Compo, G. P., & Sardeshmukh, P. D. (2015) · Nature Geoscience · doi:10.1038/ngeo2568 · Cited by 58 · see citing works
Gabriel, I., Plunkett, G., Abbott, P. M., Behrens, M., Burke, A., Chellman, N., Cook, E., Fleitmann, D., Hörhold, M., Hutchison, W., et al. (2024) · Communications Earth & Environment · doi:10.1038/s43247-024-01350-6 · Cited by 18 · see citing works
“…high-latitude eruptions is of short duration (i.e., the year aftertheeruption),andtherefore,theclusteringofextremeannuallowstand ,morepersistenttropicalhydroclimateresponsefollowingpro-longedvolcanicemissionsaswasthecaseduringthe20thcenturywhichwasdominatedbyanthropogenicsulfuremissions 73 – 77 .”
Background
- Authors
- Booth, B. B. B., Dunstone, N. J., Halloran, P. R., Andrews, T., & Bellouin, N.
- Affiliations
- Met Office (GB)
- Corresponding author
- Booth, Ben B. B.
- Venue
- Nature
- Published
- 2012-04-04
- Volume
- 484
- Issue
- 7393
- Pages
- 228-232
- ISSN
- 0028-0836 (ISSN-L)
- 1476-4687
- OpenAlex
- W2001061636
- Cited by
- 1,022
- References
- 31
- Citations by year
- 2026: 27 · 2025: 49 · 2024: 58 · 2023: 62 · 2022: 75 · 2021: 84 · 2020: 90 · 2019: 76 · 2018: 64 · 2017: 70 · 2016: 73 · 2015: 92 · 2014: 71 · 2013: 95 · 2012: 35
- FWCI
- 77.63
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Update notices
- erratum (2012-05-02)
- Open access
- Locations
- Nature (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- CentAUR (University of Reading) (acceptedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- U.S. Department of Energy
- Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, UK Government (GA01101)
- Met Office (GA01101)
- Office of Science
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Atmospheric aerosols and clouds
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Geology and Paleoclimatology Research
- Keywords
- anthropogenic aerosols, volcanic aerosols, North Atlantic sea surface temperature, multidecadal variability, aerosol radiative forcing, aerosol-cloud microphysics, fossil fuel emissions, biomass burning, Sahel drought, tropical cyclones, 20th century climate, decadal climate prediction, Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, ocean heat uptake
- MeSH terms
- Aerosols, Atlantic Ocean, Climate, Human Activities, Radiation, Seawater, Temperature, Water Movements, Volcanic Eruptions, History, 19th Century, History, 20th Century, History, 21st Century, Droughts, Global Warming
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review
