A signature of persistent natural thermohaline circulation cycles in observed climate.
Abstract
Analyses of global climate from measurements dating back to the nineteenth century show an ‘Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation’ (AMO) as a leading large‐scale pattern of multidecadal variability in surface temperature. Yet it is not possible to determine whether these fluctuations are genuinely oscillatory from the relatively short observational record alone. Using a 1400 year climate model calculation, we are able to simulate the observed pattern and amplitude of the AMO. The results imply the AMO is a genuine quasi‐periodic cycle of internal climate variability persisting for many centuries, and is related to variability in the oceanic thermohaline circulation (THC). This relationship suggests we can attempt to reconstruct past THC changes, and we infer an increase in THC strength over the last 25 years. Potential predictability associated with the mode implies natural THC and AMO decreases over the next few decades independent of anthropogenic climate change.
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The AMOC and STCs are basin-wide and regional circulations that are influenced by and interact with the circulation in the tropical Atlantic and affect tropical Atlantic climate and extreme weather.
“The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and subtropical cells (STCs) are examples of basin-wide and regional circulations, respectively, that are influenced by and interact with the circulation in the tropical Atlantic and affect tropical Atlantic climate and extreme weather (Zhang et al., 2003;Knight et al., 2005;Zhang and Delworth, 2006).”
From The tropical atlantic observing system (2019) · cites this paper as Knight et al., 2005
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- Authors
- Knight, J. R., Allan, R. J., Folland, C. K., Vellinga, M., & Mann, M. E.
- Affiliations
- Met Office (GB)
- Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research Met Office Exeter, Devon UK
- Pennsylvania State University (US)
- Venue
- Geophysical Research Letters
- Publisher
- American Geophysical Union (AGU)
- Published
- 2005-10
- Volume
- 32
- Issue
- 20
- ISSN
- 0094-8276 (ISSN-L)
- 1944-8007
- OpenAlex
- W2080120903
- Cited by
- 1,208
- References
- 0
- Citations by year
- 2026: 25 · 2025: 23 · 2024: 29 · 2023: 44 · 2022: 56 · 2021: 68 · 2020: 65 · 2019: 78 · 2018: 55 · 2017: 76 · 2016: 55 · 2015: 78 · 2014: 79 · 2013: 98 · 2012: 82
- FWCI
- 37.79
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Geophysical Research Letters (publishedVersion)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Oceanography › Oceanographic and Atmospheric Processes
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Geology and Paleoclimatology Research
- Keywords
- Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, thermohaline circulation, multidecadal climate variability, natural climate variability, paleoclimate reconstruction, climate predictability, surface temperature change
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