The DOI matches its Crossref record; 39 of the 39 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
The Magnitude and Causes of Global Drought Changes in the Twenty-First Century under a Low–Moderate Emissions Scenario
Abstract
Atmospheric demand for moisture and dry days are expected to increase, leading to drying over land in the twenty-first century. Here, the magnitude and key drivers of this drying are investigated using model simulations under a low–moderate scenario, RCP4.5. The self-calibrated Palmer drought severity index with the Penman–Monteith potential evapotranspiration (PET) (sc_PDSI_pm), top 10-cm soil moisture (SM), and runoff (R) from 14 models are analyzed. The change patterns are found to be comparable while the magnitude differs among these measures of drought. The frequency of the SM-based moderate (severe) agricultural drought could increase by 50%–100% (100%–200%) in a relative sense by the 2090s over most of the Americas, Europe, and southern Africa and parts of East and West Asia and Australia. Runoff-based hydrological drought frequency could also increase by 10%–50% over most land areas despite increases in mean runoff. The probability density functions (PDFs) flatten, enhancing the drought increases induced primarily by decreases in the mean. Precipitation (P) and evapotranspiration (E) changes contribute to the SM change; whereas decreases in sc_PDSI_pm result from ubiquitous PET increases of 10%–20% with contributions from decreased P over subtropical areas. Rising temperatures and vapor deficits explain most of the PET increase, which in turn explains most of the E increases over Asia and northern North America while decreased SM leads to lower E over the rest of the world. Radiation and wind speed changes have only small effects on future PET and drought. Globally, runoff ratio changes little while P, E, and R all increase by about 4%–5% in the twenty-first century.
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Cites
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Increasing drought under global warming in observations and models
Dai, A. (2013) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/nclimate1633 · Cited by 4,762
Self-citationJansen, E. H., Overpeck, J. T., Briffa, K., Duplessy, J., Joos, F., Masson-Delmotte, Olago, D., Otto‐Bliesner, B. L., Peltier, W. R., Rahmstorf, S., et al. (2007) · UEA Digital Repository (University of East Anglia) · Cited by 4,574
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Self-citationThe Changing Character of Precipitation
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Cited by
Global Changes in Drought Conditions Under Different Levels of Warming
Naumann, G., Alfieri, L., Wyser, K., Mentaschi, L., Betts, R. A., Carrao, H., Spinoni, J., Vogt, J., & Feyen, L. (2018) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1002/2017gl076521 · Cited by 829
Plant responses to increasing CO 2 reduce estimates of climate impacts on drought severity
Swann, A. L. S., Hoffman, F. M., Koven, C. D., & Randerson, J. T. (2016) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1604581113 · Cited by 585
Natural hazards in Australia: droughts
Kiem, A. S., Johnson, F., Westra, S., van Dijk, A., Evans, J. P., O’Donnell, A., Rouillard, A., Barr, C., Tyler, J., Thyer, M., et al. (2016) · Climatic Change · doi:10.1007/s10584-016-1798-7 · Cited by 286
Metadata
- Authors
- Zhao, T., & Dai, A.
- Venue
- Journal of Climate
- Publisher
- American Meteorological Society
- Published
- 2015-05-27
- Volume
- 28
- Issue
- 11
- Pages
- 4490-4512
- ISSN
- 0894-8755 (ISSN-L)
- 1520-0442
- OpenAlex
- W1980750894
- Cited by
- 314
- References
- 39
- FWCI
- 16.66
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
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