Transfer of Minors to Adult Court in California: Investigating the Legal/Demographic Factors that Make the Difference
Open accessAbstract
In light of California's passage of Proposition 57 in 2016, the present study examined the relationship between legal/demographic variables and decisions to transfer juveniles to the adult court system. Following Prop 57, transfer decisions were entrusted solely with judges and prosecutors could no longer direct file. We used a sample of 106 reports written by forensic psychologists on behalf of the defense examining the life circumstances of minors who allegedly committed serious crimes. Close to two-thirds of minors were kept in the juvenile system whereas the rest were transferred. Utilizing regression analysis, we found that minors with at least one murder charge were more likely to end up in adult court. In regards to race, we detected an overall considerable overrepresentation of Black and Latino juveniles and an underrepresentation of Whites with charges against them but no support of racial bias in transfer decisions in our restricted data set.
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Claims the paper makes
2 of 30 cited sources checked · 0 supported · 0 flagged · accuracy not yet measured
- Premisecitation
The area in the human brain responsible for reason and decision-making is not fully developed until age 25.
“Given the well established fact that the area in the human brain responsible for reason and decisionmaking is not fully developed until the age of 25 (Kolb et al., 2012)”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim1 of 1 sources checked- cites Kolb et al., 2012 source
The opening passage describes the prefrontal cortex as involved in planning and directing cognitive behavior, and “Development of the PFC” says its synaptic pruning continues well into the third decade of life. Those passages support prolonged development of a region relevant to decision-making, but they do not establish age 25 as the point when it becomes fully developed; the section says cerebral maturation is not complete until the fourth decade. (LLM, conf=0.88)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
- Findingown data
None of the other predictor variables (race, age at the time of the alleged offense, age at the time of writing the report) had a significant impact on transfer outcome.
“None of the other predictor variables (i.e., race, age at the time of the alleged offense, age at the time of writing the report or race) had a significant impact on the outcome.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Minors with at least one murder charge were significantly more likely to be transferred to adult court.
“Utilizing regression analysis, we found that minors with at least one murder charge were more likely to end up in adult court.”
- Also stated in: § Results · plain
“The only significant factor influencing fitness hearings was whether the minor allegedly committed murder; as juveniles with murder charges were significantly more likely to be transferred to adult court.”
- Also stated in: § Results · plain
“Thirty three out of 59 juveniles with at least one murder charge would ultimately be tried as adults (56%) while only 6 out of 47 (13%) of non-murder cases were transferred to adult court.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Also stated in: § Results · plain
- Findingown data
Latino juveniles had apparent proportional representation in the sample relative to the California youth population.
“with Latinos having apparent proportional representation”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
Close to two-thirds of minors in the sample were retained in the juvenile system, while the rest were transferred to adult court.
“Close to twothirds of minors were kept in the juvenile system whereas the rest were transferred.”
- Also stated in: § Results · plain
“Non-transfers (n = 67) made up 63.2% of the case outcomes while transfers (n = 39), represented 36.8% of the outcomes.”
- Also stated in: § Discussion · plain
“In our smaller convenience sample, this trend was thoroughly reversed and only slightly more than a third of the juveniles were subjected to the more punitive adult system.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Also stated in: § Results · plain
- Findingown data
White and other (mostly Asian-American) juveniles were underrepresented in the sample relative to their share of the California youth population.
“under-representation of Whites and others (mostly Asian-American which compose of 12.7% of minors in the state)”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
Black alleged offenders were not more likely to be transferred to adult court than other races.
“Black alleged offenders were significantly more likely to enter the juvenile legal system (relative to their share in the California population) but not more likely to be prosecuted as adults.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Since Proposition 57, only 31% of the cases in the study's Los Angeles County sample resulted in transfers.
“However, since the passage of Proposition 57 only 31% of the cases in our sample resulted in transfers.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Black juveniles were overrepresented in the sample relative to their share of the California youth population.
“A chi-square test showed a strong overrepresentation of Black juvenile and under-representation of Whites and others (mostly Asian-American which compose of 12.7% of minors in the state) with Latinos having apparent proportional representation, X 2 (3, N = 106) = 167.34,p > .001.”
- Also stated in: § Discussion · plain
“Black alleged offenders were significantly more likely to enter the juvenile legal system (relative to their share in the California population)”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Also stated in: § Discussion · plain
- Findingown data
The results did not support any of the authors' hypotheses.
“The results did not support any of our hypotheses.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Youths were more likely to be transferred to adult court if they allegedly committed murder rather than if they did not commit homicide.
“Youths were more likely to be transferred to the adult court system if they allegedly committed murder rather than if they did not commit homicide.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
The only factor assessed that had a significant effect on the youth transfer decision was the severity of the crime.
“In fact, the only factor assessed that had a significant effect on the outcome of the youth transfer decision was the severity of the crime.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationreasoning
The higher standard for judges and the higher investment of time and resources required of prosecutors in the absence of direct file turned the tide toward juvenile retention.
“Indeed, the higher standard set forth for judges as well as the higher investment of time and resources required of the prosecutors (in the absence of direct file) to prove the minor unfit for juvenile court turned the tide.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationreasoning
Switching the burden of proof from the defense to the prosecutor shifted transfer outcomes profoundly.
“Switching the burden of proof from the defense having to prove the minor's fitness for the juvenile system to the prosecutor needing to demonstrate lack of suitability for the juvenile system already shifted the outcomes profoundly; and many prosecutors in our sample while initially taking steps to pursue for an adult transfer, relented before a hearing could take place.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Premisecitation
Barton and Butts (2008) found positive youth development effects when juvenile system policies focused on identifying positive aspects of a youth's life while implementing individually tailored interventions.
“Empirical support for this goal was demonstrated by Barton and Butts (2008) who found positive youth development effects when juvenile system policies focused on the identifation of the positive aspects of a youth's life while implementing individually tailored interventions.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites Barton and Butts (2008)
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- Interpretationcitation
Repealing the power of prosecutors to direct file charges led to a substantial decrease in the number of minors being tried in the adult system.
“Repealing the power of prosecutors to direct file charges led to a substantial decrease in the number of minors being tried in the adult system.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites Ridolfi et al. (2017)
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- Interpretationown data
The gap in outcomes between prosecutor petition to transfer (under Proposition 21) and judge transfer adjudication (under Proposition 57) demonstrates more equitable treatment by judges.
“The gap in outcomes between these two legal decisions-petition to transfer to adult court by the prosecutor (under Proposition 21) and transfer adjudication by the judge (under Proposition 57-demonstrates more equitable treatment on behalf of judges.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Premisecitation
Ridolfi et al. (2017) reported that between 2010 and 2016, among Latino youth who had a transfer hearing (most directly filed), 1491 (75%) were transferred to adult court and 503 (25%) were not.
“Ridolfi et al. (2017) reported that between 2010 to 2016 for the Latino youth who had a transfer hearing (most were directly filed), 1491 (75%) were transferred to adult court, while 503 (25%) were not.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites Ridolfi et al. (2017)
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- Interpretationown data
The current legal scheme of stringent judicial review is a successful check and balance on the overall system.
“As such, it seems that the current legal scheme of stringent judicial review is a successful check and balance on the overall system.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Interpretationreasoning
Proposition 57 has been successful in striving towards the electorate's goal of a more rehabilitative criminal justice system for California youth.
“This serves as further evidence that Proposition 57 has been successful in striving towards the electorate's goal of a more rehabilitative criminal justice system for California youth.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim- Rests on an assumption: Proposition 57's goal was a more rehabilitative criminal justice system for California youth.
- Premisecitation
The significantly shorter incarceration time in the juvenile system is in line with the 'ageing out' of delinquent activities after adolescence.
“First, the significantly shorter incarceration time is in line with the “ageing out” of delinquent activities after adolescence (Scott & Steinberg, 2008).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites Scott & Steinberg, 2008
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- Interpretationcitation
Judges may be influenced by physical appearance and presentation, which can vary widely in the 14-to-18 age group, rather than by chronological age.
“judges possibly are influenced by physical appearance and presentation which can vary widely in this age group rather than the chronological age of the youth (Goff et al., 2014).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites Goff et al., 2014 source
- Interpretationreasoning
For a couple of distinct features, the juvenile system is superior in fostering a positive (or less negative) progressive accommodation.
“However, for a couple of distinct features the juvenile system is superior in fostering a positive (or less negative) progressive accommodation.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Interpretationown data
Not all the goals set forth by Proposition 57 seemed to have been realized.
“Yet not all the goals set forth by this legal initiative seemed to have been realized.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- Rests on an assumption: The law specifically instructs judges to be sensitive to age evidence, given the importance of time remaining to rehabilitate the minor in the juvenile system.
- Premisecitation
Teenagers' ability for impulse control and other higher mental processes that may help resist the abrupt urge to commit a crime is not comparable to that of older adults.
“teenagers' ability for impulse control (Vidal et al., 2012) and other higher mental processes that may help one resist the abrupt urge to commit a crime is not comparable to that of older adults.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites Vidal et al., 2012 source
- Study design and conductnone given
The age variable in the study was restricted to ages 14 to younger than 18.
“One point of note here is that the age variable is rather restricted (14-younger than 18)”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationown data
The study provides some support for the changes in the legal treatment of youth in California brought about by Proposition 57.
“Finally, it provides some support for the changes in the legal treatment of youth in the state of California brought about by Proposition 57.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
- Classified as probably not a substantial claim. 24
- May combine two claims. 19
Classified as probably not a substantial claim.
PremisecitationPrior research shows Black youths are treated more harshly than White youths in the criminal justice system.
“These findings demonstrate that Black youths are treated more harshly than White youths in the criminal justice system (Fite et al., 2009).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim1 of 1 sources checked- cites Fite et al., 2009 source
The Discussion (page unavailable) notes that Black youths are much more likely to be arrested for drug offenses despite evidence of similar drug-use rates, and considers differential policing as a possible explanation. But it says there is little evidence of racial bias in non-drug-related arrests; the Conclusions attribute most arrest-rate discrepancies to differing exposure to early risk factors. The paper therefore does not establish the broad claim that Black youths are treated more harshly throughout the criminal justice system. (LLM, conf=0.86)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
May combine two claims.
Findingown dataIn the authors' sample, only 21 (41.2%) of Latino youth were transferred to adult court while the majority (n = 30, 58.8%) were retained, reversing the earlier trend.
“We observed a trend reversal where only 21 (41.2%) were transferred to adult court while the majority were retained (n = 30, 58.8%).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
PremisecitationPrior to Proposition 57, for the 2010-2016 period, 73% of cases were direct filed, and in the aggregate 92% of minors ended up being tried as adults.
“Ridolfi et al. (2017) reported that for the 2010-2016 period 73% of cases (n = 3955) were direct filed while a minority involved transfer hearings (27%, n = 1442) of which 1024 (71%) of minors were transferred while 418 (29%) were retained in the juvenile system.In the aggregate, 92% of minors ended up being tried as adults.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites Ridolfi et al. (2017)
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Study design and conductnone givenDiscrepancies between researchers were resolved by a third researcher.
“In the very unlikely event that discrepancies were detected a third researcher resolved the issue.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimClassified as probably not a substantial claim.
Study design and conductreasoningThe study used a generalized estimating equation (GEE) to account for correlation between multiple observations nested within counties.
“For our main analysis, we employed a generalized estimating equation (GEE) to account for the correlation between multiple observations in the dataset based on county.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 2 sources checked- cites Ghisletta & Spini, 2004 source
- cites Hardin & Hilbe, 2003
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
PremisecitationHolbrook et al. (2022) reported that the plurality of judges noted disparate treatment against racial minorities and the presence of unconscious racial bias as evidence.
“Moreover, Holbrook et al. (2022) report that “the plurality of judges noted disparate treatment against racial minorities and the presence of unconscious racial bias as evidence.”(p.9).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites Holbrook et al. (2022)
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
May combine two claims.
PremisereasoningUnder Proposition 57, prosecutors must petition for fitness hearings and present convincing evidence to a judge that the minor is unfit for juvenile court before transfer can occur.
“Under Proposition 57, transfers without judicial review were eliminated and prosecutors were tasked with providing convincing evidence to the judge during a judicial review hearing that the minor would be unfit for juvenile court treatment in order for the transfer to occur.”
- Also stated in: § Introduction · plain
“Under Proposition 57, prosecutors are required to petition for fitness hearings and present evidence before a judge to support their claim.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- Also stated in: § Introduction · plain
Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
PremisecitationIn a recent national survey of 632 judges, 411 (65%) responded affirmatively that systemic racism exists in the legal system.
“In a recent national survey of 632 judges, 411 of them (65%) responded in the affirmative when queried if systemic racism does exist in the legal system.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites Holbrook et al. (2022)
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
May combine two claims.
PremisecitationCounties in California differ widely in how they administer justice, with unique legal cultures.
“Counties in California differ widely on how they administer justice (Ball, 2011;Lin & Petersilia, 2014).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 2 sources checkedProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.
Study design and conductown dataEach forensic report was read by two researchers to ensure consistency, with high inter-rater reliability (α = .96).
“Each report was read by two researchers to ensure consistency (α = .96).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Study design and conductnone givenThe study's sample was composed only of male alleged offenders.
“The sample was composed of only male alleged offenders.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Study design and conductnone givenThe study was approved by the university's Institutional Review Board (IRB-2018-486).
“This study was approved by the university's Institutional Review Board: IRB-2018-486.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
PremisecitationJolivette et al. (2016) illustrated how positive emphasis assisted in the transition of youth from juvenile justice facilities back to their neighborhood school.
“Jolivette et al. (2016) illustrated how this positive emphasis assisted in the transition of youth from juvenile justice facilities back to their neighborhood school.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites Jolivette et al. (2016)
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
May combine two claims.
PremisecitationFollowing Proposition 57, transfer decisions were entrusted solely with judges, and prosecutors could no longer direct file charges in adult court without judicial review.
“Following Prop 57, transfer decisions were entrusted solely with judges and prosecutors could no longer direct file.”
- Also stated in: § Introduction · plain
“Proposition 57's most significant development was in granting sole discretion to judges to determine if a youth (between 14 and just younger than 18 years of age) will be tried as an adult or a juvenile.”
- Also stated in: § Introduction · plain
“The passage of Proposition 57 took away the power of prosecutors to direct file charges in adult court without judicial review.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites Proposition 57
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- Also stated in: § Introduction · plain
May combine two claims.
PremisecitationPrior to Proposition 57, Los Angeles County held 557 transfer hearings (2010-2016) and transferred 88% of those cases to adult court, showing Los Angeles juvenile courts were more apt to transfer youth than courts in other counties.
“Ridolfi et al. (2017) reported that the County held 557 transfer hearings (2010 and 2016) and transferred 88% of those cases to adult court, showing that Los Angeles juvenile courts were more apt to transfer youth than courts in other counties.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites Ridolfi et al. (2017)
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
Classified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.
Study design and conductown dataAt the county level, the study's ability to highlight the current trend was limited due to reduced sample size and power, so analysis focused only on Los Angeles County with 32 cases.
“At the county level, our ability to highlight the current trend was more limited due to the reduced sample size and power, thus we focused only on Los Angeles County with 32 cases.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S3 (load-bearing).
InterpretationcitationBeing aware of systemic racism may allow judges who gained significant power under the current legal scheme to rebut its harmful effects.
“Being aware of this negative phenomenon may allow judges who gained significant power under the current legal scheme to rebut its harmful effects.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
PremisecitationAccording to Ecological Systems Theory, human development is a product of progressive accommodation, an interplay between the growing human organism and the fluctuating environments in which it lives and grows.
“According to Ecological Systems Theory (EST) (Bronfenbrenner, 1977) human development is a product of progressive accommodation, an interplay between the growing human organism and the fluctuating environments in which it actually lives and grows.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites Bronfenbrenner, 1977 source
Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S3 (load-bearing).
PremisecitationEcological Systems Theory highlights myriad influences from the most immediate Meso-System to more remote socio-cultural forces as well as change over time.
“This system approach theory highlights the myriad of influences from the most immediate Meso-System (i.e., those in close physical proximity with lasting ties) to the more remote socio-cultural forces as well as change over time.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites Bronfenbrenner, 1977 source
Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable). May combine two claims.
InterpretationreasoningThe present study contributes a new method of evaluation, diverging from existing descriptive research and adding a new dimension to the current literature.
“The present study contributes a new method of evaluation, diverging from existing descriptive research and adding a new dimension to the current literature.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
PremisecitationZane et al. (2016b) conducted a systematic review of recidivism outcomes for juveniles transferred to adult court, including a meta-analysis of nine independent studies; the distribution of effect sizes was highly heterogeneous and no statistically significant effect was detected overall.
“More recently and extensively, Zane et al. (2016b) conducted a systematic review of recidivism outcomes for juveniles transferred to adult court including a meta-analysis of nine independent studies.The distribution of effect sizes was highly heterogeneous (no statistically significant effect was detected overall)”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites Zane et al. (2016b)
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
May combine two claims.
PremisecitationLanza-Kaduce et al. (2005) examined adult felony recidivism for 475 matched pairs of one juvenile transferred to adult court and one retained in the juvenile justice system in Florida; the transfers were more likely to reoffend once they turned 18.
“Lanza-Kaduce et al. (2005) examined adult felony recidivism for 475 matched pairs of one juvenile transferred to adult court and one retained in the juvenile justice system in Florida.The transfers were more likely to reoffend once they turned 18 years of age.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites Lanza-Kaduce et al. (2005) source
May combine two claims.
InterpretationcitationThe use of adult transfers is not only failing to deter crime but also backfiring by provoking a higher chance of recidivism.
“This suggests that the use of adult transfers is not only failing to deter crime, but also backfiring by provoking a higher chance of recidivism.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
PremisecitationThe change in policy that Proposition 57 brought was partially due to the fact that sending a juvenile to the adult system did not seem to assist rehabilitation and may have increased the likelihood of recidivism.
“The change in policy that Proposition 57 brought was partially due to the fact that sending a juvenile to the adult system did not seem to assist the youth in rehabilitation, but rather may have even increased the likelihood of recidivism.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 2 sources checked- cites Lanza-Kaduce et al. (2005) source
- cites Zane et al. (2016b)
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
Classified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.
PremisecitationProposition 57 emphasizes that the court must go beyond the circumstances surrounding the offense itself and that judges should have the most relevant information and the full picture of an individual before reaching a final transfer determination.
“Proposition 57 emphasizes that “the court must go beyond the circumstances surrounding the offense itself” and that judges should have the most “relevant information and the full picture of an individual” before reaching a final determination about transfer.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites Proposition 57
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).
InterpretationreasoningThis highly restrictive environment promotes negative outcomes due to factors such as exposure to delinquent others, violence, or restraints performed by staff.
“This highly restrictive environment promotes negative outcomes, due to factors such as exposure to delinquent others, violence or restraints performed by staff.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
PremisecitationCompared to the adult justice system, the juvenile justice system has a greater focus on rehabilitation that would provide youth with a greater likelihood of maturing into a law-abiding adult.
“When compared to the adult justice system, the juvenile justice system has a greater focus on rehabilitation that would provide the youth with a greater likelihood of maturing into a law-abiding adult (Weinberg, 2017).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites Weinberg, 2017
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
PremisecitationProposition 57 emphasizes the potential for the minor to be rehabilitated as a factor for judges to consider when deciding whether to keep the minor in the juvenile system.
“Proposition 57 emphasizes the potential for the minor to be rehabilitated as a factor for judges to take into consideration when deciding whether to keep the minor in the juvenile system.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites Proposition 57
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
Classified as probably not a substantial claim.
Study design and conductreasoningBecause of the relatively small sample size, the conclusions warrant caution.
“Because of the relatively small sample size, the conclusions warrant caution.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimClassified as probably not a substantial claim.
Study design and conductnone givenThe main weakness of the study is the limited number of reports the authors were able to include in their analysis.
“The main weakness of the study is the limited number of reports we were able to include in our analysis.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
InterpretationcitationThrough the adaptation of Ecological Systems Theory to the juvenile justice system, the prospects of the authors' sample are clearly not favorable regardless of whether they are kept in the juvenile system or transferred, because they face detention, which is inherently deleterious.
“Through the adaption of EST to the juvenile justice system (Snyder & Duchschere, 2022) the prospects of our sample are clearly not favorable regardless if kept in the juvenile system or transferred, as they face detention, which is inherently deleterious.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites Snyder & Duchschere, 2022 source
Classified as probably not a substantial claim.
PremisecitationZane et al. concluded that, if any, transfers may actually increase reoffending.
“leading the authors to conclude that, if any, transfers may actually increase reoffending.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites Zane et al. (2016b)
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
Classified as probably not a substantial claim.
Study design and conductnone givenThe authors' assessment of the results comes in close time proximity after the passing of Proposition 57.
“It is clear that our assessment of the results comes in close time proximity after the passing of Prop 57.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Study design and conductreasoningThe authors tested only the independent effects of their predictor variables and not their possible interactive effects.
“More specifically, we tested only the independent effects of our predictor variables and not their possible interactive effects.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based). May combine two claims.
InterpretationreasoningThis tilt towards rehabilitation rather than retribution is the hallmark of Proposition 57, a case in point of how Macro-system legislation attempts to foster a more favorable person-environment interaction.
“This tilt towards rehabilitation rather than retribution is the hallmark of Proposition 57, a case in point of how a Macro-system legislation attempts to foster a more favorable personenvironment interaction.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
PremisecitationIn a subset of three studies targeting violent felony recidivism, two studies found that juvenile transfer increased recidivism and one study identified no effect.
“but in a subset of three studies that targeted violent felony recidivism, two studies found that juvenile transfer increased recidivism and one study identified no effect”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites Zane et al. (2016b)
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
May combine two claims.
Interpretationown dataBased on the authors' analysis, judges still do not go beyond the circumstances of the offense and do not have the full picture of the individual before transfer decisions.
“Based on our analysis, this seems still not to be the case.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).
Interpretationnone givenThis study is the first to evaluate the factors of youth transfer decisions inferentially.
“Despite these limitations, this study is the first to evaluate the factors of youth transfer decisions inferentially.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
The paper relies on this without support.
The 106 forensic reports from defense-retained psychologists are representative of minors facing transfer in California under Proposition 57.
“The Forensic evaluation offices of Drs X, Y, and Z, clinical psychologists in the greater San Diego region provided the data for this study, with the majority of the cases provided by Dr X.”
“In our smaller convenience sample, this trend was thoroughly reversed and only slightly more than a third of the juveniles were subjected to the more punitive adult system.”
The paper relies on this without support.
The outcome information obtained from minors' lawyers is accurate and complete.
“Their offices later contacted the minors' lawyers to learn the outcome in their cases.”
The paper relies on this without support.
The measure of murder versus no-murder adequately captures the severity of the alleged crime for the purpose of predicting transfer.
“We used the measure of murder versus no-murder to explore likelihood of transfer versus no-transfer.”
The paper relies on this without support.
The pre-Prop 57 comparison data from Ridolfi et al. (2017) are comparable to the study's sample and legal context.
“Ridolfi et al. (2017) reported that for the 2010-2016 period 73% of cases (n = 3955) were direct filed while a minority involved transfer hearings (27%, n = 1442) of which 1024 (71%) of minors were transferred while 418 (29%) were retained in the juvenile system.In the aggregate, 92% of minors ended up being tried as adults.”
“In our smaller convenience sample, this trend was thoroughly reversed and only slightly more than a third of the juveniles were subjected to the more punitive adult system.”
The paper relies on this without support.
The law specifically instructs judges to be sensitive to age evidence, given the importance of time remaining to rehabilitate the minor in the juvenile system.
“This is not a promising finding as the law specifically instructs judges to be sensitive to such evidence, given the importance of time remaining to rehabilitate the minor in the juvenile system.”
The paper relies on this without support.
Proposition 57's goal was a more rehabilitative criminal justice system for California youth.
“This serves as further evidence that Proposition 57 has been successful in striving towards the electorate's goal of a more rehabilitative criminal justice system for California youth.”
Statistics that don’t add up
Each reported p-value recomputed from its test statistic and degrees of freedom.
Inconsistent p-value: X 2 (3, N = 106) = 167.34,p > .001
MinorThe paper reports p > .001 here; recomputing from the test statistic and its degrees of freedom gives p < .001. The check cannot tell whether the statistic or the p-value is the misprint.
Reported p > .001 · recomputed p < .001
“X 2 (3, N = 106) = 167.34,p > .001”
Statistics recomputed
Every reported test result, recomputed from its test statistic and degrees of freedom. A result shows as not adding up only once an independent check has confirmed it.
- Doesn’t add upχ²(3) = 167.34reported p > .001 · recomputed p < .001
“X 2 (3, N = 106) = 167.34,p > .001”
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
Each contradiction between two passages listed here was confirmed by an independent check.
Murder-charge counts differ between sections
MajorThe sample description reports 53 murder cases and 44 non-murder cases, while the results report 59 and 47, respectively. The earlier counts also total only 97 cases, rather than the stated sample of 106.
“Overall, 53 cases (54.6%) included a murder charge while 44 (45.4%) did not.”
“Thirty three out of 59 juveniles with at least one murder charge would ultimately be tried as adults (56%) while only 6 out of 47 (13%) of non-murder cases were transferred to adult court.”
Latino representation is described in opposite ways
MinorThe abstract says Latino juveniles were considerably overrepresented, but the results describe their representation as proportional.
“In regards to race, we detected an overall considerable overrepresentation of Black and Latino juveniles and an”
“A chi-square test showed a strong overrepresentation of Black juvenile and under-representation of Whites and others (mostly Asian-American which compose of 12.7% of minors in the state) with Latinos having apparent proportional representation, X 2 (3, N = 106) = 167.34,p > .001.”
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- Authors
- Goldschmied, N., Ramona, A., Stilman, E., Bomberger, E., Lehman, F., Malek, K., & Minagawa, R.
- Affiliations
- University of San Diego (US)
- University of California San Diego (US)
- Private Practice
- Corresponding author
- Lehman, Francesca
- ORCID
- Goldschmied, Nadav
- Venue
- Psychological Reports
- Publisher
- SAGE Publications
- Published
- 2023-09-28
- Volume
- 128
- Issue
- 5
- Pages
- 3709-3724
- ISSN
- 0033-2941 (ISSN-L)
- 1558-691X
- OpenAlex
- W4387123192
- Cited by
- 0
- References
- 35
- FWCI
- 0.00
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- Psychological Reports (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Funders
- University of Washington
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Criminal Justice and Corrections Analysis
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Criminal Law and Policy
- Social Sciences › Psychology › Clinical Psychology › Psychopathy, Forensic Psychiatry, Sexual Offending
- Keywords
- murder accusation, racial disparities, judicial decision-making, prosecutorial discretion
- MeSH terms
- Adolescent, Adult, California, Child, Criminal Law, Female, Homicide, Humans, Juvenile Delinquency, Male, Minors, Young Adult
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
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