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Cited by 478

The DOI matches its Crossref record; 13 of the 13 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.

Where people die (1974—2030): past trends, future projections and implications for care

Open access
Gomes, Barbara, Higginson, Irene J.·2008·Palliative Medicine
DOI 10.1177/0269216307084606
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Abstract

Background: Ageing nations have growing needs for end of life care, but these have never been projected in detail. We analysed past trends in place of death (1974—2003) and projected likely trends to 2030 in England and Wales and from these need for care.Methods: Mortality trends and forecasts were obtained from official statistics. Future scenarios were modelled using recent five-year trends in age and gender specific home death proportions to estimate numbers of deaths by place to 2030, accounting for future changes in the age and gender distribution of deaths.Results: Annual numbers of deaths fell by 8% from 1974 to 2003, but are expected to rise by 17% from 2012 to 2030. People will die increasingly at older ages, with the percentage of deaths among those aged 85 and expected to rise from 32% in 2003 to 44% in 2030. Home death proportions fell from 31% to 18% overall, and at an even higher rate for people aged 65 and over, women and noncancer deaths. If recent trends continue, numbers of home deaths could reduce by 42% and fewer than 1 in 10 will die at home in 2030. Annual numbers of institutional deaths (currently 440936) will be 530409 by 2030 (20% increase).Conclusions: In England and Wales home deaths have been decreasing. The projections underline the urgent need for planning care to accommodate a large increase of ageing and deaths. Either inpatient facilities must increase substantially, or many more people will need community end of life care from 2012 onwards. Palliative Medicine 2008;22 : 33—41

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Metadata

Authors
Gomes, B., & Higginson, I. J.
Venue
Palliative Medicine
Publisher
SAGE Publications
Published
2008-01
Volume
22
Issue
1
Pages
33-41
ISSN
  • 0269-2163 (ISSN-L)
  • 1477-030X
DOI
10.1177/0269216307084606
OpenAlex
W2138030827
Cited by
478
References
13
FWCI
36.58
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
hybrid

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CoChat. (2026). Citation check: Where people die (1974—2030): past trends, future projections and implications for care. https://app.cochat.ai/papers/10.1177/0269216307084606
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Gomes, B., & Higginson, I. J. (2008). Where people die (1974—2030): past trends, future projections and implications for care. Palliative Medicine. https://doi.org/10.1177/0269216307084606

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Contains information from the Semantic Scholar Academic Graph Datasets, made available under the ODC Attribution License (ODC-BY 1.0).

Semantic Scholar’s data is described in: Kinney, R., et al. (2023). The Semantic Scholar Open Data Platform. arXiv:2301.10140.