A tale of two rice varieties: Modelling the prehistoric dispersals of japonica and proto- indica rices
Open accessAbstract
We model the prehistoric dispersals of two rice varieties, japonica and proto- indica, across Asia using empirical evidence drawn from an archaeobotanical dataset of 400 sites from mainland East, Southeast and South Asia. The approach is based on regression modelling wherein goodness of fit is obtained from log–log quantile regressions of the archaeologically inferred age versus a least-cost distance from the origin(s) of dispersal. The Fast Marching method is used to estimate the least-cost distances based on simple geographical features. We explicitly test three hypotheses for the arrival of japonica rice to India where, it has been proposed, it hybridized with the indigenous proto- indica, subsequently spreading again throughout India. Model selection, based on information criteria, highlights the role of the Inner Asia Mountain Corridor in introducing japonica rice into northeast India, followed closely by a ‘mixed-route’ model, where japonica was also almost simultaneously introduced via Assam, Bangladesh and Myanmar. Finally, we estimate the impact of future archaeological work on model selection, further strengthening the importance of the Inner Asia Mountain Corridor.
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Domesticated indica rice was introduced ∼1600 to 1500 BCE in the Upper and Middle Ganges.
“The domesticated indica rice introduced ∼1600 to 1500 BCE in the Upper and Middle Ganges (104, 105)”
From The biocultural origins and dispersal of domestic chickens (2022) · cites this paper as [105]
The Conclusions (page unavailable) say domesticated rice had become established in the middle Ganges region, and the Discussion notes predominantly non-shattering rice at Mahagara around 1650 BC. But the Discussion gives 1395 BC as the model’s predicted arrival date for domesticated indica at Mahagara; the copy does not establish an introduction throughout the Upper and Middle Ganges specifically around 1600–1500 BC. (LLM, conf=0.82)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredThere is evidence for proto-indica rice management by hunter-fisher-gatherers in the middle Ganges plains predating ∼2000 BCE.
“While there is evidence for proto-indica rice management by hunter–fisher–gatherers in the middle Ganges plains predating ∼2000 BCE (102, 104, 105)”
From The biocultural origins and dispersal of domestic chickens (2022) · cites this paper as [105]
The Discussion reports evidence of proto-indica cultivation at Haryana sites dated 2500–2000 BC. That supports the early date and rice-management aspect, but Haryana is not the middle Ganges plains, and the passage does not identify the cultivators as hunter–fisher–gatherers. The Conclusions describe proto-indica cultivation elsewhere as a model prediction requiring future testing. (LLM, conf=0.84)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
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Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
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- Authors
- Silva, F., Weisskopf, A., Castillo, C., Murphy, C., Kingwell-Banham, E., Qin, L., & Fuller, D. Q.
- Affiliations
- Institute of Archaeology, University College London, UK
- University College London (GB)
- Peking University (CN)
- ORCID
- Venue
- The Holocene
- Publisher
- SAGE Publications
- Published
- 2018-08-07
- Volume
- 28
- Issue
- 11
- Pages
- 1745-1758
- ISSN
- 0959-6836 (ISSN-L)
- 1477-0911
- OpenAlex
- W2886057795
- Cited by
- 39
- References
- 85
- Citations by year
- 2026: 3 · 2025: 4 · 2024: 1 · 2023: 6 · 2022: 11 · 2021: 5 · 2020: 3 · 2019: 4 · 2018: 2
- FWCI
- 2.58
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- Locations
- The Holocene (publishedVersion)
- Bournemouth University Research Online (Bournemouth University) (submittedVersion)
- UCL Discovery (University College London) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- European Research Council (Advanced Grant no. 323842)
- Natural Environment Research Council (NE/G005540/1)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Paleontology › Archaeology and ancient environmental studies
- Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Plant Science › Rice Cultivation and Yield Improvement
- Social Sciences › Geography, Planning and Development › Pacific and Southeast Asian Studies
- Keywords
- Oryza sativa subsp. japonica, archaeobotany, fast marching method, rice hybridization, Northeast India, South and Southeast Asia, model selection, information criteria
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