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Rejecting or Accepting Parameter Values in Bayesian Estimation
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This article explains a decision rule that uses Bayesian posterior distributions as the basis for accepting or rejecting null values of parameters. This decision rule focuses on the range of plausible values indicated by the highest density interval of the posterior distribution and the relation between this range and a region of practical equivalence (ROPE) around the null value. The article also discusses considerations for setting the limits of a ROPE and emphasizes that analogous considerations apply to setting the decision thresholds for p values and Bayes factors.
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“There is no uniquely correct ROPE; however, by convention, the ROPE range is often set at half the size of Cohen’s definition of small effect size (i.e. 0.2 [306];) resulting in ROPE values of ±0.1 and ±0.05 for standardized mean differences (e.g. Cohen’s d = group 1 mean – group 2 mean/pooled standard deviation) and standardized regression coefficients (i.e. sβ = coefficient from a regression on”
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“…(see e.g. Lakens, 2017; Lakens et al., 2018), regions of practical equivalence (ROPE) around the null value in Bayesian decision rules (see e.g. Kruschke, 2015, 2018), or interval-valued null hypotheses in the context of Bayes factors (see e.g. Morey and Rouder, 2011; Hoijtink et al., 2019;…”
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“• The results obtained do not depend on the researcher’s intentions (Kruschke, 2018).”
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“However, the ROPE neglects the important aspect of the formulation of an alternative hypothesis.”
BackgroundMethodInfluentialLacko, D., & Prošek, . (2021) · TESTFÓRUM · doi:10.5817/tf2021-14-13648
“Aposteriorní distribuci lze charakterizovat např. prostřednictvím HDI (High Density Interval; Kruschke, 2018).”
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“More specifically, we multiplied the SD of the RCT pretest for the control group at the individual level by .30 or .10 to create a lenient threshold (Steiner andWong, 2016) or a stringent threshold (Cook et al., 2020; Kruschke, 2018), respectively.”
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“Finally, future work may also want to consider other approaches to defining an acceptable range, such as using the region of practical equivalence (Kruschke, 2018).”
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“While we are strong proponents of the Bayesian statistical paradigm (Etz & Vandekerckhove, 2018; Vandekerckhove, Rouder, & Kruschke, 2018) in which HRDR is based, we will argue here that HRDR is flawed and should be avoided, on grounds similar to the above objections to NHST. Specifically, HRDR can…”
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Metadata
- Authors
- Kruschke, J. K.
- Affiliations
- Indiana University Bloomington (US)
- Corresponding author
- Kruschke, John K.
- ORCID
- Kruschke, John K.
- Venue
- Advances in Methods and Practices in Psychological Science
- Publisher
- SAGE Publications
- Published
- 2018-05-08
- Volume
- 1
- Issue
- 2
- Pages
- 270-280
- ISSN
- 2515-2459 (ISSN-L)
- 2515-2467
- OpenAlex
- W2801776818
- Cited by
- 734
- References
- 51
- Citations by year
- 2026: 99 · 2025: 128 · 2024: 128 · 2023: 98 · 2022: 85 · 2021: 93 · 2020: 67 · 2019: 25 · 2018: 10
- FWCI
- 41.08
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- Advances in Methods and Practices in Psychological Science (publishedVersion)
- IUScholarWorks Open (Indiana University) (submittedVersion)
- OSF Preprints (OSF Preprints) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- U.S. Food and Drug Administration
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Statistics and Probability › Statistical Methods and Bayesian Inference
- Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Statistics and Probability › Statistical Distribution Estimation and Applications
- Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › General Decision Sciences › Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics
- Keywords
- Bayesian hypothesis testing, null hypothesis rejection, highest density interval, region of practical equivalence, posterior distribution, decision threshold, p-values, Bayes factor, parameter values
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