Automatically explaining machine learning prediction results: a demonstration on type 2 diabetes risk prediction
Open accessAbstract
BACKGROUND: Predictive modeling is a key component of solutions to many healthcare problems. Among all predictive modeling approaches, machine learning methods often achieve the highest prediction accuracy, but suffer from a long-standing open problem precluding their widespread use in healthcare. Most machine learning models give no explanation for their prediction results, whereas interpretability is essential for a predictive model to be adopted in typical healthcare settings. METHODS: This paper presents the first complete method for automatically explaining results for any machine learning predictive model without degrading accuracy. We did a computer coding implementation of the method. Using the electronic medical record data set from the Practice Fusion diabetes classification competition containing patient records from all 50 states in the United States, we demonstrated the method on predicting type 2 diabetes diagnosis within the next year. RESULTS: For the champion machine learning model of the competition, our method explained prediction results for 87.4 % of patients who were correctly predicted by the model to have type 2 diabetes diagnosis within the next year. CONCLUSIONS: Our demonstration showed the feasibility of automatically explaining results for any machine learning predictive model without degrading accuracy.
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Researchers and clinicians are using artificial intelligence to integrate electronic health records and social risk factors, such as neighborhood characteristics, to predict outcomes important to individuals with diabetes, including poor control.
“researchers and clinicians are using artificial intelligence (AI) to integrate electronic health records (EHRs) and social risk factors, such as neighborhood characteristics, to predict outcomes important to individuals with diabetes, including poor control [17-22].”
From An Assessment of How Clinicians and Staff Members Use a Diabetes Artificial Intelligence Prediction Tool: Mixed Methods Study (2023) · cites this paper as [19]
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(2021) · Machine Learning Theory and Practice · doi:10.38007/ml.2021.020205
Model-Agnostic Interpretation via Feature Perturbation Visualization
Marcílio-Jr, W. E., Eler, D. M., & Breve, F. (2023) · SIBGRAPI Conference on Graphics, Patterns and Images (SIBGRAPI) · doi:10.1109/sibgrapi59091.2023.10347141
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Optimizer Influenced Deep Neural Network for IoT Healthcare Security
Priyadarshani, P. P., Nayak, J., & Dash, P. B. (2026) · SN Computer Science · doi:10.1007/s42979-025-04657-z
Explainable Machine Learning Models for Type-2 Diabetes Prediction
Aslam, S., & Raza, U. A. (2026) · International Conference on Ubiquitous Information Management and Communication (IMCOM) · doi:10.1109/imcom69009.2026.11360888
A Novel Optimizer Based Deep Neural Network Model for IoMT
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- Authors
- Luo, G.
- Affiliations
- University of Utah (US)
- Corresponding author
- Luo, Gang
- Venue
- Health Information Science and Systems
- Published
- 2016-03-08
- Volume
- 4
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 2-2
- ISSN
- 2047-2501 (ISSN-L)
- PMC
- PMC4782293
- OpenAlex
- W2295559204
- Cited by
- 85
- References
- 25
- Citations by year
- 2026: 3 · 2025: 4 · 2024: 4 · 2023: 11 · 2022: 9 · 2021: 16 · 2020: 12 · 2019: 14 · 2018: 3 · 2017: 6 · 2016: 3
- FWCI
- 7.14
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- hybrid
- doi.org
- Licence
- cc-by
- Locations
- Health Information Science and Systems (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- arXiv (Cornell University) (submittedVersion)
- arXiv (Cornell University)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Computer Science › Artificial Intelligence › Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI)
- Physical Sciences › Computer Science › Artificial Intelligence › Machine Learning in Healthcare
- Health Sciences › Health Professions › Health Information Management › Artificial Intelligence in Healthcare
- Keywords
- explainable machine learning, type 2 diabetes prediction, model interpretability, electronic health records, diabetes classification, clinical decision support
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