The role of PD-L1 expression as a predictive biomarker: an analysis of all US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approvals of immune checkpoint inhibitors
Open accessAbstract
The development of immune checkpoint inhibitors has changed the treatment paradigm for advanced cancers across many tumor types. Despite encouraging and sometimes durable responses in a subset of patients, most patients do not respond. Tumors have adopted the PD-1/PD-L1 axis for immune escape to facilitate tumor growth, which can be leveraged as a potential target for immune checkpoint inhibitors. On this basis, PD-L1 protein expression on tumor or immune cells emerged as the first potential predictive biomarker for sensitivity to immune checkpoint blockade. The goal of our study was to evaluate PD-L1 as a predictive biomarker based on all US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) drug approvals of immune checkpoint inhibitors. We evaluated the primary studies associated with 45 FDA drug approvals from 2011 until April 2019. In total, there were approvals across 15 tumor types. Across all approvals, PD-L1 was predictive in only 28.9% of cases, and was either not predictive (53.3%) or not tested (17.8%) in the remaining cases. There were 9 FDA approvals linked to a specific PD-L1 threshold and companion diagnostic: bladder cancer (N = 3), non-small cell lung cancer (N = 3), triple-negative breast cancer (N = 1), cervical cancer (N = 1), and gastric/gastroesophageal junction cancer (N = 1) with 8 of 9 (88.9%) with immune checkpoint inhibitor monotherapy. The PD-L1 thresholds were variable both within and across tumor types using several different assays, including approvals at the following PD-L1 thresholds: 1, 5, and 50%. PD-L1 expression was also measured in a variable fashion either on tumor cells, tumor-infiltrating immune cells, or both. In conclusion, our findings indicate that PD-L1 expression as a predictive biomarker has limitations and that the decision to pursue testing must be carefully implemented for clinical decision-making.
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Claims the paper makes
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
High TMB and immune checkpoint molecule expression, including PD-L1, have limited clinical utility as predictive biomarkers when considered in isolation.
“While high TMB and immune checkpoint molecule expression, including PD-L1, have been used as predictive biomarkers across different cancer types, they have limited clinical utility when considered in isolation88,101.”
From Multi-omic analysis of hepatocellular carcinoma reveals aberrant cis-regulatory changes and dysregulated retrotransposons with prognostic potential (2025) · cites this paper as [101]
The Discussion describes PD-L1 as an imprecise predictive biomarker and says its clinical use depends on the FDA-approved setting. It also identifies implementation challenges for TMB, but does not establish that high TMB has limited clinical utility when considered in isolation. The paper does not evaluate other immune checkpoint molecules as predictive biomarkers. (LLM, conf=0.85)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredStudies reveal a lack of correlation between the level of PD-L1 expression and the response to ICI treatment in certain cancers.
“Studies reveal a lack of correlation between the level of PD-L1 expression and the response to ICI treatment in certain cancers (Davis and Patel, 2019; Li et al., 2022).”
From Microphysiological systems as models for immunologically ‘cold’ tumors (2024) · cites this paper as Davis and Patel, 2019
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
The self-check needs the paper’s full text.
Cites
The blockade of immune checkpoints in cancer immunotherapy
Pardoll, D. M. (2012) · Nature Reviews Cancer · doi:10.1038/nrc3239 · Cited by 13,838 · see citing works
Signatures of mutational processes in human cancer
Initiative, A. P. C. G., Alexandrov, L. B., ICGC Breast Cancer Consortium, ICGC MMML-Seq Consortium, PedBrain, I., Nik-Zainal, S., Wedge, D. C., Aparicio, S. A. J. R., Behjati, S., Biankin, A. V., et al. (2013) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature12477 · Cited by 9,660 · see citing works
Herbst, R. S., Baas, P., Kim, D.-W., Felip, E., Pérez-Gracia, J. L., Han, J.-Y., Molina, J., Kim, J.-H., Arvis, C. D., Ahn, M.-J., et al. (2016) · The Lancet · doi:10.1016/s0140-6736(15)01281-7 · Cited by 6,449 · see citing works
Atezolizumab and nab-paclitaxel in advanced triple-negative breast cancer
Schmid, P., Adams, S., Rugo, H. S., Schneeweiss, A., Barrios, C. H., Iwata, H., Diéras, V., Hegg, R., Im, S.-A., Shaw Wright, G., et al. (2018) · New England Journal of Medicine · doi:10.1056/nejmoa1809615 · Cited by 4,350 · see citing works
First-Line Nivolumab in Stage IV or Recurrent Non–Small-Cell Lung Cancer
Carbone, D. P., Reck, M., Paz-Ares, L., Creelan, B., Horn, L., Steins, M., Felip, E., van den Heuvel, M. M., Ciuleanu, T.-E., Badin, F., et al. (2017) · New England Journal of Medicine · doi:10.1056/nejmoa1613493 · Cited by 2,503 · see citing works
PD-L1 expression as a predictive biomarker in cancer immunotherapy
Patel, S. P., & Kurzrock, R. (2015) · Molecular Cancer Therapeutics · doi:10.1158/1535-7163.mct-14-0983 · Cited by 2,291 · see citing works
Predictive biomarkers for checkpoint inhibitor-based immunotherapy
Gibney, G. T., Weiner, L. M., & Atkins, M. B. (2016) · The Lancet Oncology · doi:10.1016/s1470-2045(16)30406-5 · Cited by 1,635 · see citing works
PD1/PDL1 inhibitors for the treatment of advanced urothelial bladder cancer
Stenehjem, D., Tran, D., Nkrumah, M., & Gupta, S. (2018) · OncoTargets and Therapy · doi:10.2147/ott.s135157 · Cited by 144 · see citing works
Flagged first, then by citations
Research works printed but not linked: 17
- [3]Kythreotou A Siddique A Mauri FA Bower M Pinato DJ PD-L1 J Clin Pathol 2018 71 3 189 194 10.1136/jclinpath-2017-204853 29097600 · DOI
- [4]Zhang J Dang F Ren J Wei W Biochemical aspects of PD-L1 regulation in Cancer immunotherapy Trends Biochem Sci 2018 43 12 1014 1032 10.1016/j.tibs.2018.09.004 30287140 PMC6252278 · DOI
- [5]Sun C Mezzadra R Schumacher TN Regulation and function of the PD-L1 checkpoint Immunity. 2018 48 3 434 452 10.1016/j.immuni.2018.03.014 29562194 PMC7116507 · DOI
- [6]Kowanetz M Zou W Gettinger SN Koeppen H Kockx M Schmid P Differential regulation of PD-L1 expression by immune and tumor cells in NSCLC and the response to treatment with atezolizumab (anti-PD-L1) Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2018 115 43 E10119 E10E26 10.1073/pnas.1802166115 30297397 PMC6205493 · DOI
- [7]Mansfield AS Aubry MC Moser JC Harrington SM Dronca RS Park SS Temporal and spatial discordance of programmed cell death-ligand 1 expression and lymphocyte tumor infiltration between paired primary lesions and brain metastases in lung cancer Ann Oncol 2016 27 10 1953 1958 10.1093/annonc/mdw289 27502709 PMC5035793 · DOI
- [8]Reck M Rodriguez-Abreu D Robinson AG Hui R Csoszi T Fulop A Pembrolizumab versus chemotherapy for PD-L1-positive non-small-cell lung Cancer N Engl J Med 2016 375 19 1823 1833 10.1056/NEJMoa1606774 27718847 · DOI · Paper page
- [10]Khozin S Abernethy AP Nussbaum NC Zhi J Curtis M Tucker M Rates of PD-L1 expression testing in U.S. community-based oncology practices (USCPs) for patients with metastatic non-small cell lung cancer (mNSCLC) receiving nivolumab (N) or pembrolizumab (P) J Clin Oncol 2017 35 15_suppl 11596 10.1200/JCO.2017.35.15_suppl.11596 · DOI
- [11]Rosenberg JE Hoffman-Censits J Powles T van der Heijden MS Balar AV Necchi A Atezolizumab in patients with locally advanced and metastatic urothelial carcinoma who have progressed following treatment with platinum-based chemotherapy: a single-arm, multicentre, phase 2 trial Lancet (London, England) 2016 387 10031 1909 1920 10.1016/S0140-6736(16)00561-4 PMC5480242 26952546 · DOI · Paper page
- [12]Bellmunt J de Wit R Vaughn DJ Fradet Y Lee JL Fong L Pembrolizumab as second-line therapy for advanced Urothelial carcinoma N Engl J Med 2017 376 11 1015 1026 10.1056/NEJMoa1613683 28212060 PMC5635424 · DOI · Paper page
- [14]Chung HC Ros W Delord JP Perets R Italiano A Shapira-Frommer R Efficacy and safety of Pembrolizumab in previously treated advanced cervical Cancer: results from the phase II KEYNOTE-158 study Journal of clinical oncology: official journal of the American Society of Clinical Oncology 2019 37 17 1470 1478 10.1200/JCO.18.01265 30943124 · DOI
- [15]Fuchs CS Doi T Jang RW Muro K Satoh T Machado M Safety and efficacy of Pembrolizumab Monotherapy in patients with previously treated advanced gastric and Gastroesophageal junction Cancer: phase 2 clinical KEYNOTE-059 trial JAMA Oncol 2018 4 5 e180013 10.1001/jamaoncol.2018.0013 29543932 PMC5885175 · DOI · Paper page
- [18]Balar AV Castellano D O'Donnell PH Grivas P Vuky J Powles T First-line pembrolizumab in cisplatin-ineligible patients with locally advanced and unresectable or metastatic urothelial cancer (KEYNOTE-052): a multicentre, single-arm, phase 2 study Lancet Oncol 2017 18 11 1483 1492 10.1016/S1470-2045(17)30616-2 28967485 · DOI
- [20]Sharma P Retz M Siefker-Radtke A Baron A Necchi A Bedke J Nivolumab in metastatic urothelial carcinoma after platinum therapy (CheckMate 275): a multicentre, single-arm, phase 2 trial Lancet Oncol 2017 18 3 312 322 10.1016/S1470-2045(17)30065-7 28131785 · DOI
- [21]Hellmann MD Nathanson T Rizvi H Creelan BC Sanchez-Vega F Ahuja A Genomic features of response to combination immunotherapy in patients with advanced non-small-cell lung Cancer Cancer Cell 2018 33 5 843 852 10.1016/j.ccell.2018.03.018 29657128 PMC5953836 · DOI · Paper page
- [22]Samstein RM Lee CH Shoushtari AN Hellmann MD Shen R Janjigian YY Tumor mutational load predicts survival after immunotherapy across multiple cancer types Nat Genet 2019 51 2 202 206 10.1038/s41588-018-0312-8 30643254 PMC6365097 · DOI · Paper page
- [24]Cristescu R Mogg R Ayers M Albright A Murphy E Yearley J Pan-tumor genomic biomarkers for PD-1 checkpoint blockade-based immunotherapy Science (New York, NY) 2018 362 6411 10.1126/science.aar3593 PMC6718162 30309915 · DOI · Paper page
- [25]Hyman DM Taylor BS Baselga J Implementing genome-driven oncology Cell. 2017 168 4 584 599 10.1016/j.cell.2016.12.015 28187282 PMC5463457 · DOI
Cited by
Sorted by citations
Cytotoxic CD8+ T cells in cancer and cancer immunotherapy
Raskov, H., Orhan, A., Christensen, J. P., & Gögenur, I. (2021) · British Journal of Cancer · doi:10.1038/s41416-020-01048-4 · Cited by 1,687 · see citing works
PD-L1 as a biomarker of response to immune-checkpoint inhibitors
Doroshow, D. B., Bhalla, S., Beasley, M. B., Sholl, L. M., Kerr, K. M., Gnjatic, S., Wistuba, I. I., Rimm, D. L., Tsao, M. S., & Hirsch, F. R. (2021) · Nature Reviews Clinical Oncology · doi:10.1038/s41571-021-00473-5 · Cited by 1,575 · see citing works
Multimodal data fusion for cancer biomarker discovery with deep learning
Steyaert, S., Pizurica, M., Nagaraj, D., Khandelwal, P., Hernandez-Boussard, T., Gentles, A. J., & Gevaert, O. (2023) · Nature Machine Intelligence · doi:10.1038/s42256-023-00633-5 · Cited by 402 · see citing works
Artificial Intelligence for Predictive Biomarker Discovery in Immuno-Oncology: A Systematic Review
Prelaj, A., Miskovic, V., Zanitti, M., Trovo, F., Genova, C., Viscardi, G., Rebuzzi, S. E., Mazzeo, L., Provenzano, L., Kosta, S., et al. (2024) · Annals of Oncology · doi:10.1016/j.annonc.2023.10.125 · Cited by 340 · see citing works
Wang, Y., Tong, Z., Zhang, W., Zhang, W., Buzdin, A., Mu, X., Yan, Q., Zhao, X., Chang, H.-H., Duhon, M., et al. (2021) · Frontiers in Oncology · doi:10.3389/fonc.2021.683419 · Cited by 224 · see citing works
Xu, Y., Su, G.-H., Ma, D., Xiao, Y., Shao, Z.-M., & Jiang, Y.-Z. (2021) · Signal Transduction and Targeted Therapy · doi:10.1038/s41392-021-00729-7 · Cited by 163 · see citing works
Goswami, S., Chen, Y., Anandhan, S., Szabo, P. M., Basu, S., Blando, J. M., Liu, W., Zhang, J., Natarajan, S. M., Xiong, L., et al. (2020) · Science Translational Medicine · doi:10.1126/scitranslmed.abc4220 · Cited by 133 · see citing works
T-cell agonists in cancer immunotherapy
Choi, Y., Shi, Y., Haymaker, C. L., Naing, A., Ciliberto, G., & Hajjar, J. (2020) · Journal for ImmunoTherapy of Cancer · doi:10.1136/jitc-2020-000966 · Cited by 119 · see citing works
The role of biomarkers in personalized immunotherapy
Sankar, K., Ye, J. C., Li, Z., Zheng, L., Song, W., & Hu-Lieskovan, S. (2022) · Biomarker Research · doi:10.1186/s40364-022-00378-0 · Cited by 111 · see citing works
Exosomal PD‐L1: New Insights Into Tumor Immune Escape Mechanisms and Therapeutic Strategies
Zhou, K., Guo, S., Li, F., Sun, Q., & Liang, G. (2020) · Frontiers in Cell and Developmental Biology · doi:10.3389/fcell.2020.569219 · Cited by 99 · see citing works
“…such as traumatic biopsy, missing small tumors, heterogeneity of PD-L1 expression within tumors, unavailability of dynamic observation, and limited sensitivity (Kaunitz et al., 2017; Bassanelli et al., 2018; Teixido et al., 2018; Davis and Patel, 2019; Stovgaard et al., 2019; Xu G. et al., 2019).”
BackgroundPeyraud, F., Guégan, J.-P., Bodet, D., Nafia, I., Fontan, L., Auzanneau, C., Cousin, S., Roubaud, G., Cabart, M., Chomy, F., et al. (2022) · Annals of Oncology · doi:10.1016/j.annonc.2022.07.001 · Cited by 79 · see citing works
Liu, J., Peng, X., Yang, S., Li, X., Huang, M., Wei, S., Zhang, S., He, G., Zheng, H., Fan, Q., et al. (2022) · Cell Communication and Signaling · doi:10.1186/s12964-021-00816-w · Cited by 75 · see citing works
Tricarico, P., Chardin, D., Martin, N., Contu, S., Hugonnet, F., Otto, J., & Humbert, O. (2024) · Journal for ImmunoTherapy of Cancer · doi:10.1136/jitc-2023-007628 · Cited by 38 · see citing works
Deep learning in digital pathology for personalized treatment plans of cancer patients
Wen, Z., Wang, S., Yang, D. M., Xie, Y., Chen, M., Bishop, J., & Xiao, G. (2023) · Seminars in Diagnostic Pathology · doi:10.1053/j.semdp.2023.02.003 · Cited by 34 · see citing works
Surrogate markers of intestinal dysfunction associated with survival in advanced cancers
Birebent, R., Drubay, D., Alves Costa Silva, C., Marmorino, F., Vitali, G., Piccinno, G., Hurtado, Y., Bonato, A., Belluomini, L., Messaoudene, M., et al. (2025) · OncoImmunology · doi:10.1080/2162402x.2025.2484880 · Cited by 21 · see citing works
Microphysiological systems as models for immunologically ‘cold’ tumors
Gaebler, D., Hachey, S. J., & Hughes, C. C. W. (2024) · Frontiers in Cell and Developmental Biology · doi:10.3389/fcell.2024.1389012 · Cited by 12 · see citing works
Wang, H., Arulraj, T., Ippolito, A., & Popel, A. S. (2024) · Handbook of Experimental Pharmacology · doi:10.1007/164_2024_735 · Cited by 6 · see citing works
Cheng, C. C. Y., Cheung, M. F., Lee, A. Y., Wu, Q., Chow, S. H.-C., Ang, J. Y. J., Riquelme Medina, I., Lo, G., Wu, H., Yang, W., et al. (2025) · Communications Biology · doi:10.1038/s42003-025-09154-w · Cited by 3 · see citing works
- Authors
- Davis, A. A., & Patel, V. G.
- Affiliations
- Northwestern University (US)
- Tisch Cancer Institute (US)
- Corresponding author
- Patel, Vaibhav G.
- Venue
- Journal for ImmunoTherapy of Cancer
- Publisher
- BMJ
- Published
- 2019-10-26
- Volume
- 7
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 278-278
- ISSN
- 2051-1426 (ISSN-L)
- PMC
- PMC6815032
- OpenAlex
- W2981790403
- Cited by
- 960
- References
- 8
- Citations by year
- 2026: 76 · 2025: 116 · 2024: 145 · 2023: 153 · 2022: 204 · 2021: 161 · 2020: 105
- FWCI
- 49.95
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- Journal for ImmunoTherapy of Cancer (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Oncology › Cancer Immunotherapy and Biomarkers
- Life Sciences › Immunology and Microbiology › Immunology › Immunotherapy and Immune Responses
- Life Sciences › Immunology and Microbiology › Immunology › T-cell and B-cell Immunology
- Keywords
- PD-L1 expression, predictive biomarkers, immune checkpoint inhibitors, FDA drug approval, companion diagnostics, tumor-infiltrating immune cells, immune evasion, PD-1/PD-L1 axis, cancer immunotherapy, non-small cell lung cancer, bladder cancer, triple-negative breast cancer, cervical cancer, gastric cancer
- MeSH terms
- Antineoplastic Agents, Immunological, Humans, Neoplasms, Prognosis, Biomarkers, Tumor, United States, United States Food and Drug Administration, Gene Expression, Drug Approval, Molecular Targeted Therapy, B7-H1 Antigen
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review