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Delusion formation and reasoning biases in those at clinical high risk for psychosis
Open accessAbstract
Background: Cognitive models propose that faulty appraisal of anomalous experiences is critical in developing psychosis, particularly delusions. A data gathering bias may be fundamental to abnormal appraisal Aims: To examine whether there is a data gathering bias in people at high risk of developing psychosis Method: Individuals with an at-risk mental state (n=35) were compared with a matched group of healthy volunteers (n=23). Participants were tested using a modified version of the ‘beads’ reasoning task with different levels of task difficulty Results: When task demands were high, the at-risk group made judgements on the basis of less information than the control group (P < 0.05). Within both groups, jumping to conclusions was directly correlated with the severity of abnormal beliefs and intolerance of uncertainty (P<0.05). In the at-risk group it was also associated with impaired working memory (P<0.05), whereas in the control group poor working memory was associated with a more conservative response style (P<0.05) Conclusions: People with an at-risk mental state display a jumping to conclusions reasoning style, associated with impaired working memory and intolerance of uncertainty. This may underlie a tendency to develop abnormal beliefs and a vulnerability to psychosis
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From Intolerance of uncertainty, paranoia, and prodromal symptoms: Comparisons between a schizophrenia spectrum disorder, anxiety disorder and non‐clinical sample. (2025) · cites this paper as Broome et al., 2007
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“A longitudinal design may be able to examine temporal relationships between variables over different time phases, for example, recruiting participants with an at-risk mental state (Broome et al., 2007) who make the transition to psychosis.”
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“JTC has also been found in healthy subjects with delusion-like experiences (28), subjects at high risk of suffering from psychosis (29), subjects with active psychotic symptoms at the time of evaluation (4), and in a more attenuated manner in psychotic patients’ relatives (28, 30).”
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“Consistent with previous research, intolerance of uncertainty can be viewed as a general psychological vulnerability factor for depression (Broome et al., 2007; Carleton, 2012, 2016; Taha et al., 2012), while pain catastrophizing is a pain-specific psychological vulnerability factor.”
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“For example, Colbert and Peters (2002) carried out a study on 70 delusion-prone individuals from a ‘healthy’ population, and found that those who scored higher on the PDI displayed a JTC bias. More recently, Freeman, Pugh and Garety (2008) reported that 40 out of 200 participants, sampled from a non-clinical populatio…”
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Self-citationUncertainty Processing in Autism
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Jänsch, C., & Hare, D. J. (2013) · Journal of Autism and Developmental Disorders · doi:10.1007/s10803-013-1855-2 · Cited by 29
“A JTC bias is also observed in people with prodromal symptoms who are ‘at risk’ of developing psychosis (Broome et al. 2007), those in remission from delusions (Moritz and Woodward 2005; Peters and Garety 2006), in non-clinical ‘delusion-prone’ individuals (Colbert and Peters 2002; Linney et al.…”
BackgroundInfluentialInternal monitoring deficits attenuate post-error slowing in psychosis-proneness
Zhao, W., & Cannon, T. D. (2026) · Schizophrenia Research: Cognition · doi:10.1016/j.scog.2026.100439
“One hallmark of psychosis – delusions – involves culturally non-normative and firmly held beliefs (Broome et al., 2018; Butler and Braff, 1991).”
Geng, F.-L., Guo, R., & Shao, Y. (2026) · Journal of Psychiatric Research · doi:10.1016/j.jpsychires.2026.05.031
Tripoli, G., Ferraro, L., Sartorio, C., Seminerio, F., Maniaci, G., Giammanco, A., Daino, M., Scordato, D., Biancorosso, R., Scaglione, A., et al. (2026) · Mental Illness · doi:10.1155/mij/2602720
Lorente-Rovira, E., Luengo, A., Barrigón, M. L., Carrilero, R. L., Pousa, E., Grasa, E., Barajas, A., Ruiz‐Delgado, I., Cid, J., González‐Higueras, F., et al. (2026) · Clinical Psychology & Psychotherapy · doi:10.1002/cpp.70284
Ulrich, S., Lieb, R., & Zander-Schellenberg, T. (2023) · Journal of Behavior Therapy and Experimental Psychiatry · doi:10.1016/j.jbtep.2023.101884
Metadata
- Authors
- Broome, M. R., Johns, L. C., Valli, I., Woolley, J. B., Tabraham, P., Brett, C., Valmaggia, L., Peters, E., Garety, P. A., & McGuire, P. K.
- Affiliations
- King's College London (GB)
- University of Warwick (GB)
- Maastricht University (NL)
- Corresponding author
- Broome, M. R.
- Venue
- British Journal of Psychiatry
- Publisher
- Royal College of Psychiatrists
- Published
- 2007-12
- Volume
- 191
- Issue
- S51
- Pages
- s38-s42
- ISSN
- 0007-1250 (ISSN-L)
- 1472-1465
- OpenAlex
- W2027555607
- Cited by
- 204
- References
- 29
- Citations by year
- 2026: 6 · 2025: 7 · 2024: 3 · 2023: 4 · 2022: 7 · 2021: 8 · 2020: 23 · 2019: 9 · 2018: 8 · 2017: 15 · 2016: 11 · 2015: 19 · 2014: 14 · 2013: 16 · 2012: 10
- FWCI
- 5.05
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- The British Journal of Psychiatry (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Research Portal (King's College London) (submittedVersion)
- University of Birmingham Research Portal (University of Birmingham) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Psychiatry and Mental health › Schizophrenia research and treatment
- Social Sciences › Arts and Humanities › Philosophy › Mental Health and Psychiatry
- Life Sciences › Neuroscience › Cognitive Neuroscience › Neural and Behavioral Psychology Studies
- Keywords
- delusion formation, clinical high risk for psychosis, reasoning biases, jumping to conclusions, intolerance of uncertainty, working memory, anomalous experiences, response styles
- MeSH terms
- Adult, Delusions, Humans, Impulsive Behavior, Intelligence, Judgment, Memory, Short-Term, Neuropsychological Tests, Problem Solving, Psychiatric Status Rating Scales, Psychotic Disorders
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
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