Estradiol Rates of Change in Relation to the Final Menstrual Period in a Population-Based Cohort of Women

Sowers, MaryFran R.; Zheng, Huiyong; McConnell, Daniel; Nan, Bin; Harlow, Siobán D.; Randolph, John F.

doi:10.1210/jc.2008-1056

Cited by 135Menopause: Health Impacts and TreatmentsEstrogen and related hormone effectsBone health and osteoporosis research

Estradiol Rates of Change in Relation to the Final Menstrual Period in a Population-Based Cohort of Women

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Sowers, MaryFran R., Zheng, Huiyong, McConnell, Daniel, Nan, Bin, Harlow, Siobán D., Randolph, John F.·2008·The Journal of Clinical Endocrinology & Metabolism

DOI 10.1210/jc.2008-1056PMC PMC2579642

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Abstract

CONTEXT/OBJECTIVE: The aim was to characterize rates of change in serum estradiol (E2) levels across the menopausal transition and into early postmenopause. SETTING/PARTICIPANTS: We studied the Michigan Bone Health and Metabolism Study cohort of 629 women with median age of 38 yr (interquartile range, 7) at the 1992-1993 baseline with annual assessment of E2 levels over the subsequent 15-yr period. DESIGN/MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The purpose was to describe patterns of acceleration/deceleration in (log)E2 rates of change before and after the final menstrual period (FMP) using nonparametric and piecewise regression modeling. RESULTS: Between -10 to -2 yr to the FMP, mean fitted serum E2 population values were relatively stable. The 95% confidence bands around the slight increase in E2 rate of change 5 yr prior to the FMP included the value of no change. The fitted population mean E2 value declined 67% from 64.5 pg/ml (se = 3.6) to 21 pg/ml (se = 1.2) in the 4 yr between -2 < FMP < +2. A second significant mean E2 rate of change was identified from 6-8 yr after FMP. Fitted population mean E2 values declined 18% from 18.1 pg/ml (se = 1.3) at FMP = 6 to 14.8 pg/ml (se = 1.3) at FMP = 8. In nonobese women, the mean E2 percent decline was 42% from FMP = 6 to FMP = 8, whereas in obese women, the mean E2 percent decline over this time was 31%. CONCLUSIONS: Population mean serum E2 levels were sustained until approximately 2 yr prior to the FMP. In the ensuing 4-yr period, E2 levels declined 67%. A secondary E2 decline, commencing about 6 yr after the FMP, was observed in nonobese but not obese women.

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The estrogen decline model uses t_e = 50 years as the age of onset and τ_e = 2.6 years as a parameter fit to normalized estrogen data from Ref. [21].
“where t is the time in years (i.e., age), t e = 50 years is the age of onset of estrogen decline, and τ e = 2 . 6 years is a parameter fit to normalized estrogen data from Ref. [21] that determines the slope of the decline in estrogen (see Ref. [20] for details).”
From A physiology-based mathematical model of the renin-angiotensin system, bone remodeling, and calcium homeostasis: Effects of estrogen and renin-angiotensin system inhibitors (2025) · cites this paper as [21]

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Authors: Sowers, M. R., Zheng, H., McConnell, D., Nan, B., Harlow, S. D., & Randolph, J. F.
Affiliations: University of Michigan (US)
Departments of Epidemiology (M.R.S., H.Z., D.M., S.D.H.), School of Public Health, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan 48109
Michigan Medicine (US)
Corresponding author: Sowers, MaryFran R.
ORCID: Zheng, Huiyong
McConnell, Daniel
Nan, Bin
Randolph, John F.
Venue: The Journal of Clinical Endocrinology & Metabolism
Publisher: The Endocrine Society
Published: 2008-10-01
Volume: 93
Issue: 10
Pages: 3847-3852
ISSN: 0021-972X (ISSN-L)
1945-7197
DOI: 10.1210/jc.2008-1056
PMC: PMC2579642
OpenAlex: W2166780509
Cited by: 135
References: 45
Citations by year: 2026: 11 · 2025: 10 · 2024: 5 · 2023: 4 · 2022: 6 · 2021: 9 · 2020: 13 · 2019: 8 · 2017: 5 · 2016: 4 · 2015: 9 · 2014: 5 · 2013: 8 · 2012: 14
FWCI: 5.81
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: bronze
doi.org
Locations: The Journal of Clinical Endocrinology & Metabolism (publishedVersion)
PubMed Central (publishedVersion)
PubMed (publishedVersion)
Funders: University of Michigan (48109)
School of Public Health, University of Michigan
National Institutes of Health (5r01ar040888-02, AR20557)
College of Pharmacy, University of Michigan
National Institute of Arthritis and Musculoskeletal and Skin Diseases (AR 040888, R01AR051384, P60AR020557, AR20 557, AR051384)
Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development (R24HD041028)
Topics: Health Sciences › Medicine › Endocrinology, Diabetes and Metabolism › Menopause: Health Impacts and Treatments
Life Sciences › Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology › Genetics › Estrogen and related hormone effects
Health Sciences › Medicine › Orthopedics and Sports Medicine › Bone health and osteoporosis research
Keywords: serum estradiol, perimenopause, final menstrual period, postmenopause, estradiol decline, obesity, rate of change, women's health
MeSH terms: Adult, Estradiol, Female, Follow-Up Studies, Humans, Menopause, Menstruation, Cohort Studies, Body Mass Index, Postmenopause

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Estradiol Rates of Change in Relation to the Final Menstrual Period in a Population-Based Cohort of Women

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