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Estradiol Rates of Change in Relation to the Final Menstrual Period in a Population-Based Cohort of Women
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CONTEXT/OBJECTIVE: The aim was to characterize rates of change in serum estradiol (E2) levels across the menopausal transition and into early postmenopause. SETTING/PARTICIPANTS: We studied the Michigan Bone Health and Metabolism Study cohort of 629 women with median age of 38 yr (interquartile range, 7) at the 1992-1993 baseline with annual assessment of E2 levels over the subsequent 15-yr period. DESIGN/MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The purpose was to describe patterns of acceleration/deceleration in (log)E2 rates of change before and after the final menstrual period (FMP) using nonparametric and piecewise regression modeling. RESULTS: Between -10 to -2 yr to the FMP, mean fitted serum E2 population values were relatively stable. The 95% confidence bands around the slight increase in E2 rate of change 5 yr prior to the FMP included the value of no change. The fitted population mean E2 value declined 67% from 64.5 pg/ml (se = 3.6) to 21 pg/ml (se = 1.2) in the 4 yr between -2 < FMP < +2. A second significant mean E2 rate of change was identified from 6-8 yr after FMP. Fitted population mean E2 values declined 18% from 18.1 pg/ml (se = 1.3) at FMP = 6 to 14.8 pg/ml (se = 1.3) at FMP = 8. In nonobese women, the mean E2 percent decline was 42% from FMP = 6 to FMP = 8, whereas in obese women, the mean E2 percent decline over this time was 31%. CONCLUSIONS: Population mean serum E2 levels were sustained until approximately 2 yr prior to the FMP. In the ensuing 4-yr period, E2 levels declined 67%. A secondary E2 decline, commencing about 6 yr after the FMP, was observed in nonobese but not obese women.
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“where t is the time in years (i.e., age), t e = 50 years is the age of onset of estrogen decline, and τ e = 2 . 6 years is a parameter fit to normalized estrogen data from Ref. [21] that determines the slope of the decline in estrogen (see Ref. [20] for details).”
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Metadata
- Authors
- Sowers, M. R., Zheng, H., McConnell, D., Nan, B., Harlow, S. D., & Randolph, J. F.
- Affiliations
- University of Michigan (US)
- Departments of Epidemiology (M.R.S., H.Z., D.M., S.D.H.), School of Public Health, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan 48109
- Michigan Medicine (US)
- Corresponding author
- Sowers, MaryFran R.
- Venue
- The Journal of Clinical Endocrinology & Metabolism
- Publisher
- The Endocrine Society
- Published
- 2008-10-01
- Volume
- 93
- Issue
- 10
- Pages
- 3847-3852
- ISSN
- 0021-972X (ISSN-L)
- 1945-7197
- PMC
- PMC2579642
- OpenAlex
- W2166780509
- Cited by
- 135
- References
- 45
- Citations by year
- 2026: 11 · 2025: 10 · 2024: 5 · 2023: 4 · 2022: 6 · 2021: 9 · 2020: 13 · 2019: 8 · 2017: 5 · 2016: 4 · 2015: 9 · 2014: 5 · 2013: 8 · 2012: 14
- FWCI
- 5.81
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- The Journal of Clinical Endocrinology & Metabolism (publishedVersion)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Funders
- University of Michigan (48109)
- School of Public Health, University of Michigan
- National Institutes of Health (5r01ar040888-02, AR20557)
- College of Pharmacy, University of Michigan
- National Institute of Arthritis and Musculoskeletal and Skin Diseases (AR 040888, R01AR051384, P60AR020557, AR20 557, AR051384)
- Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development (R24HD041028)
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Endocrinology, Diabetes and Metabolism › Menopause: Health Impacts and Treatments
- Life Sciences › Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology › Endocrinology › Estrogen and related hormone effects
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Orthopedics and Sports Medicine › Bone health and osteoporosis research
- Keywords
- serum estradiol, perimenopause, final menstrual period, postmenopause, estradiol decline, obesity, rate of change, women's health
- MeSH terms
- Adult, Estradiol, Female, Follow-Up Studies, Humans, Menopause, Menstruation, Cohort Studies, Body Mass Index, Postmenopause
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