Cited by 324Epilepsy research and treatmentStatistical Methods in EpidemiologyPharmacological Effects and Toxicity Studies

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Estimating risk for developing epilepsy: A population-based study in Rochester, Minnesota

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Hesdorffer, D.C., Logroscino, G., Benn, E.K.T., Katri, N., Cascino, G., Hauser, W.A.·2011·Neurology

DOI 10.1212/wnl.0b013e318204a36aPMC PMC3032191

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Abstract

OBJECTIVES: Previous studies that have assessed the risk of developing epilepsy have failed to account for the competing risk of death, significant in the elderly where epilepsy incidence is highest. We report the lifetime risk for epilepsy, accounting for the competing risk of mortality. METHODS: Lifetime risk and cumulative incidence of epilepsy were examined among Rochester, MN, residents between 1960 and 1979. Age-, gender-, and calendar year-specific deaths were obtained for Rochester, MN. Lifetime risk was calculated as the conditional probability of developing epilepsy by a specific age for a person reaching that age who had not yet developed epilepsy. Lifetime risk and cumulative incidence were compared for age and time period. RESULTS: We identified 412 individuals with incident epilepsy diagnosed between January 1, 1960, and December 31, 1979. Lifetime risk was 1.6% to age 50 and 3.0% to age 80; cumulative incidence was 1.7% to age 50 and 3.4% to age 80. Similar differences were seen across epilepsy etiologies. Lifetime risk through 87 years of age increased over time from 3.5% in 1960-1969 to 4.2% in 1970-1979. CONCLUSIONS: One in 26 people will develop epilepsy during their lifetime. Lifetime risk provides an estimate of an individual's risk for epilepsy over his or her remaining lifetime, translates into the number of people who are expected to develop epilepsy, and assists health care planners as they estimate service needs for epilepsy.

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Authors: Hesdorffer, D. C., Logroscino, G., Benn, E. K. T., Katri, N., Cascino, G., & Hauser, W. A.
Affiliations: Mayo Clinic (US)
ORCID: Hesdorffer, D.C.
Logroscino, G.
Benn, E.K.T.
Cascino, G.
Hauser, W.A.
Venue: Neurology
Publisher: Ovid Technologies (Wolters Kluwer Health)
Published: 2011-01-04
Volume: 76
Issue: 1
Pages: 23-27
ISSN: 0028-3878 (ISSN-L)
1526-632X
DOI: 10.1212/wnl.0b013e318204a36a
PMC: PMC3032191
OpenAlex: W2064064788
Cited by: 324
References: 14
Citations by year: 2026: 18 · 2025: 18 · 2024: 20 · 2023: 25 · 2022: 22 · 2021: 34 · 2020: 24 · 2019: 20 · 2018: 22 · 2017: 23 · 2016: 26 · 2015: 19 · 2014: 17 · 2013: 9 · 2012: 17
FWCI: 7.74
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: bronze
doi.org
Locations: Neurology (publishedVersion)
Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (publishedVersion)
PubMed Central (publishedVersion)
PubMed (publishedVersion)
Funders: Pfizer
Association of American Medical Colleges
University of Minnesota
NeuroPace
Ministero della Salute
H. Lundbeck A/S
National Institutes of Health (NS043209)
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (DP002209)
National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke (NS043209, T32NS007153, NS07153, P50NS016308)
National Center for Research Resources (MO1 RR00645, M01RR000645)
Maternal and Child Health Bureau
Topics: Health Sciences › Medicine › Clinical Neurology › Epilepsy research and treatment
Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Statistics and Probability › Statistical Methods in Epidemiology
Health Sciences › Medicine › Pediatrics, Perinatology and Child Health › Pharmacological Effects and Toxicity Studies
Keywords: epilepsy, lifetime risk, cumulative incidence, competing risk of death, older adults, Rochester, Minnesota, epilepsy etiology, health planning
MeSH terms: Age Factors, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Epilepsy, Female, Humans, Male, Middle Aged, Minnesota, Predictive Value of Tests, Probability, Retrospective Studies, Risk Factors, Sex Factors, Incidence, Community Health Planning

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Estimating risk for developing epilepsy: A population-based study in Rochester, Minnesota

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